NBA Cup Best Bets For Nov 22: Don't Discount The Blazers
Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Friday's NBA Cup slate, including spreads, player props, and more.
We’ve got one of the biggest NBA Cup slates of the early season, with eight different games to choose from. The action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET, and there are some intriguing contests on the docket.
The biggest matchup features a showdown between the Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets. Unfortunately, that contest has lost a bit of star power. Luka Doncic has already been ruled out with an injury, while Nikola Jokic is questionable after missing three straight games for personal reasons.
Elsewhere, the Bucks will look to keep things going in the right direction in their matchup vs. the Pacers. They’re off to a slow start this season, but they’ve won four of their past five games. The 76ers will also look to get their season back on track after winning just two of their first 14 games.
Tonight's Best Bets For The NBA Cup
To preview my NBA card for Tuesday, see below:
- Blazers +12.5 at Rockets (-108; DraftKings) - Risk 1.08u
- Kelly Oubre Under 10.5 Points (+102; FanDuel) - Risk 1u
- Carlton Carrington Over 8.5 Points (-120; MGM) - Risk 1.2u
- Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 Rebounds (-113; FanDuel) - Risk 1.13u
Total: Risk 4.41 units to win 4.02.
Before we dive into the analysis behind my NBA best bets for Friday's eight-game slate, I want to make sure to call out our various NBA tools that will guide us through these slates:
- NBA Player Projections - while the focus here is betting, our NBA DFS projections include minutes projections, a key data point when evaluating player props.
- NBA Player Prop Finder - I don't place a single bet without confirming I have the best price, and I suggest you do the same.
We've also got all the NBA betting odds organized in an easy-to-digest table and NBA futures odds for those of you forecasting the season from a macro level.
Finally, I'll have all my free NBA bets, even if there isn't a standalone article, logged in our bet tracker.
Rockets vs Trail Blazers Pick
- Pick: Blazers +12.5 (-108; DraftKings)
- Bet to: Blazers +11.5 (-110)
If you haven’t been paying attention this season, the Rockets are off to a fantastic start. They’ve won 11 of their first 16 games, and they’re fifth in the league in Net Rating (+8.5 points per 100 possessions). Only the Warriors and Thunder have been better in the Western Conference, and the Rockets would be comfortably in the playoffs if they started today.
The Rockets are clearly improved from last year, but it’s fair to question if this team is quite as good as it looks on paper. For starters, they’ve breezed through an extremely easy schedule to start the year. Their 11 wins have come against the Grizzlies, Spurs (twice), Mavericks, Knicks, Pistons, Wizards, Clippers (twice), Bulls, and Pacers. When they’ve faced some of the tougher teams on their schedule—teams like the Warriors, Thunder, and Bucks—they’ve typically come up short.
Friday’s matchup vs. the Blazers is another cupcake, but 12.5 feels like a lot of points for a team like the Rockets. They’re more like a .500 squad that is disguised as a powerhouse, so I’m happy to fade them as big favorites. Portland has actually won three of their past four games, and their lone loss over that time frame was a 10-point defeat at the Thunder. If they can keep that game within 10 points, I don’t see why they can’t do it again vs. the Rockets.
Best NBA Player Prop Bets For November 22
Kelly Oubre Under 10.5 Points (+102; FanDuel)
- Play To: Under 10.5 (-120)
The 76ers have gotten a bit healthier of late. Paul George will miss Friday’s contest vs. the Nets, but Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid are both back in the lineup. Oubre has come off the bench in each of Embiid’s first three starts, and he’s averaged just 25.0 minutes and 6.7 points in those outings. With Jared McCain emerging as a legit Rookie of the Year contender, Oubre’s minutes should continue to be capped moving forward.
Carlton Carrington Over 8.5 Points (-120; BetMGM)
- Play To: Over 9.5 (-105)
The Wizards are massive underdogs tonight vs. the Celtics, but that shouldn’t have a huge impact on Carrington’s minutes. In fact, it might help him. The Wizards lost by 28 in their last outing, and Carrington finished with 18 points on a season-high 16 shot attempts. Washington is clearly playing for the future, so getting minutes for guys like Carrington, Alex Sarr, and Bilal Coulibaly should be the priority, regardless of what's happening on the scoreboard.
Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 Rebounds (-113; FanDuel)
- Play To: Over 3.5 (-135)
VanVleet has done some serious damage on the boards recently, averaging 5.5 rebounds over his past eight games. He’s had at least five boards in six of those contests, and he’s in an elite spot for rebounding purposes vs. the Blazers. They’re merely 22nd in team rebound rate, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game this season. The only reason this number is so low is that VanVleet managed just two boards in his last outing. Let’s take advantage.