The NBA Finals have gone to script so far. The Celtics won both games in Boston, giving them a 2-0 series lead as things shift back to Dallas. They’ve been the best team in the league all season, and they’ve looked the part through the first two games.

However, the Mavs still have a glimmer of hope. In addition to being back at home, the Celtics are dealing with a rare injury to center Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis has had a huge impact in this series, and if he’s unable to go, it could give the Mavericks a chance to get back in contention.

Add it all up, and the Mavericks are 2.5-point favorites in Game 3.

Can they pick up a much-needed win with their backs against the wall, or will the Celtics continue their domination? Let’s dive into my NBA Finals best bets for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 3.

Best Bets for Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 3

Celtics ML at Mavericks (+130; Caesars)

Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room. If Porzingis is unable to go in Game 3, it will have a serious impact on the Cs. Porzingis is dealing with a torn medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon in his left leg – a rare condition that no one seems to know how serious it is. He’s officially listed as questionable, but it should surprise no one if he’s out of the lineup in Game 3.

The Porzingis minutes in the first two games have quite literally been the difference in this series:

• Porzingis On: +29.1 Net Rating in 44 minutes
• Porzingis Off: 0.0 Net Rating in 52 minutes

Still, it’s not like the Celtics have been outplayed by the Mavs with Porzingis sitting. Al Horford is more than capable as a backup, and the Celtics’ depth has been a plus for them all season.

As big of a deal as Porzingis is, he’s still not the most important injury in this series. Luka Doncic needed to get a pain-killing shot before Game 2, and the Celtics’ physical defense has taken a toll on him. He had 23 points in the first half of Game 2, shooting 9-13 from the field, but he was just 3-8 for nine points in the second. Game 1 was a similar story, with Luka shooting just 41.7% after halftime.

The Celtics have the perimeter defenders to disrupt Luka all series. While the Celtics have multiple players capable of picking up the slack on offense, the Mavs need Luka to carry an immense workload. The Celtics also put Luka in nearly every action on the defensive end, so they are doing their best to run him into the ground.

Ultimately, the Celtics are very rarely going to play worse than they did in Game 2. They shot just 25.6% from 3-point range. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for only 39 points and nine turnovers. And yet they still managed to build a comfortable lead in the fourth quarter.

Maybe the Porzingis injury will make this game close down the stretch, but I just can’t go away from this Boston team at the moment. I like them to win Game 3 outright, setting up the opportunity for a sweep in Game 4.

More Bets for Mavericks-Celtics Game 3

Luka Doncic Under 9.5 assists (-135)

Doncic is coming off 11 assists in Game 2, but he had one of the worst showings of his entire career in Game 1. He finished with just one dime in more than 38 minutes, which is a testament to the Celtics’ elite defense. They are taking away the corner 3-pointers and lobs, which is where Luka typically racks up his assists. As a result, Doncic has had to do a lot of heavy lifting as a scorer.

I’m expecting more of the same in Game 3. Luka will get his points, but the rest of the Mavericks’ offense will struggle to get theirs. Doncic has averaged just 10.5 potential assists per game during this series, so under 9.5 feels like a very reasonable outcome.

Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 rebounds (-120)

If Porzingis is unable to go, the Celtics are going to need some help on the boards. Fortunately, Tatum is more than capable of pitching in. He’s averaged over 10 rebounds per game during the postseason, and he had 11 boards in Game 1.

We’ve yet to see the true “Tatum takeover” game in this series. Don’t be surprised if we get it in Game 3.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

• Sunday: 3-0 (+1.525 units)
• Futures: 9-3 w/ one pending (+1.41 units)
• Playoffs: 53-47-1 (+1.995 units excluding futures)