NBA Picks for March 20th - Against the Spread Bets and Player Props to bet
Matt LaMarca highlights his four favorite NBA picks for Wednesday, March 20th, including spread bets, player props, and more to target.
It’s getting to be that time of the year when lineups are filled with borderline NBA players.
Some teams are looking to rest key contributors for what they hope will be a deep playoff run. Others are looking to improve their position in the draft lottery. The result is some lopsided matchups over the final month of the year.
Look at Wednesday’s slate for an example. There are eight games to choose from, but only one features a point spread below 9.5. 11 of the 16 squads also have at least one player listed as questionable, so it’s getting tougher to handicap some of these matchups.
That said, all the uncertainty can also create some value in the betting market. If you’re able to successfully decipher some of the pieces of the puzzle, you can reap the rewards with your NBA picks.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite targets for Wednesday’s slate.
Miami Heat (+2.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; BetMGM)
The Heat are no strangers to a loaded injury report, and Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Cavaliers is no exception. Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jovic are both questionable after missing the past two games, and Bam Adebayo has been added as questionable with a back injury. Duncan Robinson has already been ruled out after suffering a back injury in their last contest, while Tyler Herro and Kevin Love remain sidelined.
That’s a lot of potential firepower on the sidelines, but at least there’s a chance that Butler and Adebayo will play. The Cavaliers are arguably in even worse shape since two of their best players have already been confirmed as out.
Donovan Mitchell will miss his second consecutive contest, while Evan Mobley will miss his eighth straight. The Cavs have gone an excellent 33-16 with Mitchell in the lineup this season, but they’re just 10-9 without him. They’ve already faced the Heat once without Mitchell, and they suffered a 33-point defeat in Miami.
I like the idea of locking the Heat in as underdogs and hoping for good news on the injury front. You can always wait to see if Butler and/or Adebayo is in the lineup, but the Heat will likely become favorites in that scenario.
NBA Picks Against the Spread for March 20
Detroit Pistons (+9.5) vs. Indiana Pacers (-105; Caesars)
The Pistons are in a pretty good spot going into the final month. They hold a 4.5-game cushion over the Hornets for one of the three worst records in basketball, which would guarantee them the maximum number of ping-pong balls in the lottery. Even in a weak draft class, that’s still an edge.
That means the Pistons don’t necessarily need to tank down the stretch. They were so bad at the beginning of the year that they can continue to just play basketball.
We’ve seen that in recent games. While teams like the Hornets and Wizards are losing by 20+ points on a nightly basis, the Pistons have been somewhat competitive. They were rocked by Boston in their last outing, but they’ve actually won three of their past seven games. They’re 21st in Net Rating over that time frame, which represents a significant improvement from their season-long spot in the standings (28th).
They’ll have a chance to keep things competitive at home vs. the Pacers on Wednesday. Indiana has one of the best offenses in the league – they’re second in offensive efficiency – but they give back most of that production on the defensive end. They have a Net Rating of just +1.7 over their past 10 games, which ranks merely 13th.
Ultimately, the Pacers are being priced like they’re an elite team, and I don’t think that’s the case. The Pistons have been frisky recently, so I think they can cover the number in Detroit.
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Sacramento Kings (-11.0) at Toronto Raptors (-112; DraftKings)
The Raptors have been competent for a long time, but those days appear to be in the rear-view mirror. Franchise stalwarts like Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam are gone, so the rebuild is officially on.
The Raptors don’t own their first-round pick in the upcoming draft, so they really have no incentive to tank down the stretch. That said, their roster is still looking bleak heading into Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Kings. Immanuel Quickley and R.J. Barrett have both been ruled out for personal reasons, while Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, and Chris Boucher remain out with long-term injuries.
While this game might not mean much to the Raptors, it means everything for the Kings. They’re currently tied with the Mavericks for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference standings, while the Suns are just 0.5 games back. The team that secures the sixth seed will earn a guaranteed postseason spot, while the seventh and eighth seeds will have to battle it out in the play-in tournament.
Expect the Kings to treat this like a must-win contest. They are going to be without Kevin Huerter, but that could actually be a blessing in disguise. Malik Monk is arguably the better player, and he should see extended minutes.
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
NBA Player Prop Bets for March 20
Toumani Camara Over 1.5 assists (+120; BetMGM)
- Play To: Over 1.5 (-125)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 1.5 in 97.46%
I lost with the over on Camara’s assist prop on Monday, but I’m going right back to the well on Wednesday. Camara had a brutal run out in his last contest, playing just 14.5 minutes after picking up three fouls in the first half. He still managed to get one assist, but he ultimately fell short.
Camara played at least 30.4 minutes in each of his four previous starts, and he racked up at least three dimes in three of them. With Jerami Grant doubtful, there’s a good chance Camara stays in the starting lineup vs. the Clippers and returns to his previous workload.
The Paydirt DFS simulations absolutely love this prop, with Camara going over 1.5 dimes more than 97% of the time. This is a slam-dunk at better than even money.
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Ben Sheppard Over 6.5 points + assists (+100; BetMGM)
- Play To: Over 6.5 (-120)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 6.5 in 75.44%
The Pacers lost Bennedict Mathurin to a season-ending injury, which has opened the door for Sheppard to to take on a few additional minutes. He’s played sparingly during his rookie season, but he’s averaged 19.1 minutes over his past seven games. That’s nothing to write home about, but it’s more than enough to justify a wager on his current points + assists prop.
Sheppard racked up 13 points + assists two games ago vs. the Nets, and he fell just short in his last outing vs. the Cavaliers. He shot just 1-5 from 3-point range in that matchup, and Cleveland boasts one of the best defenses in the league.
His current matchup vs. the Pistons is much friendlier, so this is a fantastic buy-low spot. Even though I think the Pistons can keep this game competitive, I’m willing to bank on Sheppard.
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.