NBA Picks for March 22nd - Against the Spread Picks and Player Props to bet
Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite NBA picks for Friday's slate on March 22nd, including picks against the spread and player props to bet.
The NCAA tournament has taken center stage, but don’t forget about the pros! The NBA is still marching toward the finish line, with eight games on tap for Friday and we have NBA picks for March 22nd locked and loaded.
There’s less than a month to go in the regular season, and there is still plenty to be decided.
The battle for the final guaranteed playoff spots in the Western Conference is intense, while the Pacers, Heat, and 76ers are separated by just 0.5 games for the final guaranteed spot in the Eastern Conference. We’ll get more information on Friday, with big matchups like Pelicans-Heat, Pacers-Warriors, and 76ers-Lakers all on the docket.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Friday’s slate.
NBA Picks Against the Spread for March 22nd
Miami Heat (-4.5) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (-110; FanDuel)
I rolled with the Pelicans on Thursday, and… let’s say I’ve made better picks. In addition to losing the game by a convincing margin, they also suffered a potentially crucial injury. Brandon Ingram left the game with a knee injury and was unable to return, putting his status in serious doubt vs. the Heat.
It goes without saying that Ingram is vital to the Pelicans’ success. He’s their second-best player, ranking second on the team with 21.0 points per game. He also averages more than five rebounds and five assists, and their offense averages +2.8 additional points per 100 possessions.
The Pelicans were already going to be in a tough spot on the second leg of a back-to-back, and if Ingram is unavailable, things will only get tougher. The Pels are a respectable 6-5 ATS on zero rest this season, but Miami seems like the preferred side.
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San Antonio Spurs (-6.0) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-108; DraftKings)
Not all bad teams are created equal. Don’t get me wrong – the Spurs are definitely bad. But they’re not nearly as bad as Memphis at the moment.
The big reason is all the injuries that the Grizzlies have dealt with. Guys like Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, and Desmond Bane have missed most of the season, and while Bane has returned recently, he’s doubtful vs. the Spurs. Vince Williams Jr. is also doubtful, while Jon Konchar has been listed as questionable.
Meanwhile, the Spurs are showing signs of improvement. They’re 13th in Net Rating over their past 10 games, and they’re going to be at essentially full strength vs. the Grizzlies.
In particular, Victor Wembanyama has put together one of the most dominant rookie seasons in league history. Over his past 15 games, he’s averaged 22.0 points, 11.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and an eye-popping 4.7 blocks per game. There’s a reason so many teams fought for the opportunity to draft this guy – he isn’t going to be a problem; he already is one.
Ultimately, Wembanyama should be enough to get past this shorthanded Grizzlies squad. I’ll lay the six points in San Antonio.
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Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; FanDuel)
I’ve successfully faded the Cavaliers a bunch recently, and I’m going back to the well on Friday. They’re still without Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, and the team has struggled to overcome their absences. Their Net Rating dips to -2.8 with both players off the floor, and they’re just 10-10 in games without Mitchell.
The Timberwolves have some injury questions of their own, with Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert both listed as questionable. Gobert has missed the team’s past three games, while Edwards has played through a questionable tag a bunch recently. I think it’s more than likely that Edwards will be in the lineup once again, and it’s possible that Gobert will be able to join him.
As long as Edwards is in, the Cavaliers are going to struggle to hang with the Timberwolves. The team has still managed a Net Rating of +4.0 with Karl-Anthony Towns off the court, and they remain the best defensive squad in the NBA. If the Timberwolves get good injury news in this contest, this number could increase by a couple of points before tip-off.
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NBA Player Props for March 22nd
Jeremy Sochan Over 2.5 assists (-120; DraftKings)
- Play To: Over 2.5 (-140)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 2.5 in 71.22%
Since I like the Spurs to get the job done vs. the Grizzlies, let’s double down with a player prop. Sochan has emerged as one of the team’s most important young players, ranking second on the team with 29.8 minutes per game.
He’s also a willing and capable passer, so much so that the team actually experimented with playing him at point guard for a stretch. That clearly wasn’t his best role, but he’s averaged a respectable 3.5 assists per game this season.
Sochan has been distributing the ball particularly well of late, handing out at least four assists in four of his past five games. That includes two outings with at least six dimes.
With the Paydirt sims going over 2.5 dimes at greater than a 71.22% clip, there’s more than enough here to lock in a play on Sochan.
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Gradey Dick Over 2.5 3-pointers (+200; FanDuel)
- Play To: Over 2.5 (+175) or Over 1.5 (-150)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 2.5 in 53.86%
When I can get a prop that is essentially a coin flip at +200, you better believe I’m interested in it. The Paydirt sims have Dick knocking down more than 2.5 3-pointers more than half the time, but the +200 odds translate to an implied probability of just 33.3%.
Dick has had a pretty quiet rookie year to date. He’s averaging just 6.9 points per game, but he’s had a chance to play bigger minutes for the team of late. He’s started the last six contests for Toronto, and he’s averaged 31.6 minutes per game.
Dick isn’t a deadeye 3-point shooter, but he’s made a respectable 35.7% of his 3-point attempts. He’s averaged close to five 3-point attempts per game in his past six starts, so his volume is also trending upward.
He draws a solid matchup on Friday vs. the Thunder. They’re susceptible to the long ball, ranking 24th in opponent 3-pointers made per game. Add it all up, and this has a chance to be a breakout spot for the 2023 lottery pick.