NBA Picks For March 25th - Against The Spread Picks And Player Props To Bet
Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite NBA picks for March 25th, including bets on the Detroit Pistons, Brooklyn Nets, and more.
It’s officially that time of the year. The NBA is in the home stretch, with approximately 10 games left on the schedule for each squad.
The good news is that the NBA postseason is right around the corner.
The bad news is that the season's final three weeks can be a bit of a drag.
Some teams will look for opportunities to rest their starters in preparation for a deep playoff run. Others will look to move up the lottery standings and earn as many ping-pong balls as possible. The result is a lot of inflated injury reports to monitor leading up to tip-off.
Be sure to monitor who’s in and out on Monday’s slate. There are some monster names on the injury report, including Nikola Jokic. If you’re glued to the news, you can occasionally find some betting value by beating the sportsbooks if they’re slow to adjust their lines.
Let’s dive into five NBA picks that have my attention for Monday’s slate.
NBA Picks Against the Spread for March 25th
Detroit Pistons +16.5 at New York Knicks (-112; FanDuel)
The Pistons are one of the teams that need be monitored today.
They’re on the second leg of a back-to-back, so they’re a candidate to rest some players. We don’t have an official injury report yet, but they could have multiple starters out of the lineup.
The good news is that Cade Cunningham seems likely to play after sitting out on Sunday due to injury management. He was a late scratch, so he seems like the least likely of the Pistons’ starters to get the night off on Monday.
As long as Cunningham is active, 16.5 feels like tons of points to be getting against the Knicks.
The Knicks are a solid basketball team, but they’re far from a juggernaut. They’re still playing without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, and the team has a Net Rating of -2.0 with both players off the floor. Since acquiring Anunoby, they have just two wins by at least 17 points when he hasn’t been in the lineup (out of 21 games).
I’ll ultimately wait for an official injury report before locking in a play, but the Pistons are a strong target as long as Cunningham is active.
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Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets Under 214.0 (-110; Caesars)
This season has not gone as planned for the Grizzlies. They were one of the top teams in the West last year, earning the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference thanks to a dynamic young core. Ja Morant emerged as an MVP candidate, while Jaren Jackson Jr. took home Defensive Player of the Year. Desmond Bane also averaged a career-best 21.5 points per game while shooting better than 40% from 3-point range.
Sadly, injuries have plagued this team all season, making them a shell of their previous selves. Morant has missed nearly the entire season due to injuries and suspension, while Bane has been in and out of the lineup. He’s officially questionable for Monday’s matchup vs. the Nuggets, along with a host of other players. The team ultimately has six players already ruled out, three players listed as doubtful, and another three players considered questionable.
With Memphis in a state of disarray, it wouldn’t shock me if the Nuggets rested some of their top guns as well. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray both missed the team’s last game, and they could get another night off to recuperate.
Add it all up, and points should be at a premium in this matchup. The Nuggets offense would obviously take a serious hit without their two best players: they’ve averaged just 106.1 points per 100 possessions with Jokic and Murray off the floor. The Grizzlies have been awful offensively all season, ranking dead last in offensive efficiency. Both of these teams also play at a slow pace – Denver ranks 27th, Memphis 17th – and this looks like a clear under.
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Brooklyn Nets -6.5 at Toronto Raptors (-110; BetMGM)
No team is in worse shape right now than Toronto. They traded away their best players in Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, and none of the pieces they got back are helping the team currently. R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley are both out of the lineup, while the draft pick compensation obviously isn’t going to help until the future.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the Raptors have been a disaster. They’re winless over their past 10 games, and they’ve posted a league-worst Net Rating of -15.5 over that stretch.
The Nets aren’t exactly world-beaters, but their Net Rating is still 9.4 points better than Toronto’s over the same time frame.
Brooklyn is also dealing with some injuries at the moment, especially after losing Cam Johnson in their last contest. Still, their roster is in significantly better shape than Toronto’s. They still have Mikal Bridges, Cam Thomas, and Nic Claxton, which should be enough to secure a cover.
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NBA Player Props for March 25th
Caris LeVert Over 6.5 assists (-120; BetMGM)
- Play To: Over 6.5 (-150)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Over 6.5 in 88.9%
The Cavaliers got some help in their last contest, with Evan Mobley returning to the lineup following a nine-game absence. However, he’s going to play limited minutes while the team looks to build him up for the playoffs.
Donovan Mitchell also remains out of the lineup, which is a major boost for LeVert. Not only will he likely be in the starting lineup, but he’s also increased his assist rate by +3.8% with Mitchell off the floor. The result is an average of 7.44 assists per 36 minutes.
LeVert is coming off just one dime in his last outing, but he played just 20.3 minutes in a 37-point loss. He had played at least 36.9 minutes in his three previous starts, so he should see a significant bump in playing time on Monday. LeVert averaged 8.7 assists over his previous nine contests, so this feels like an outstanding buy-low opportunity. The Cavs also draw an elite matchup vs. the Hornets, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency for the year.
Vit Krejci Under 3.5 assists (-145; DraftKings)
- Play To: Under 3.5 (-160)
- Paydirt DFS simulations: Under 3.5 in 89.24%
Krejci is in his third professional season, but he’s getting his first real chance for the Hawks of late. He’s started the past eight games for Atlanta due to the injuries to Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, and Saddiq Bey.
That said, Krejci hasn’t exactly taken advantage. He’s averaged just 6.1 points, 3.0 assists, and 1.6 rebounds in his eight starts, despite averaging a healthy 27.8 minutes per game.
It’s hard to envision Krejci having a strong showing vs. the Celtics, who have been the unquestioned best team in basketball. They’ve been dominant on both ends of the floor, ranking second in the league in defensive efficiency. They allow the sixth-fewest assists per game, so it seems unlikely that Krejci is going to choose this spot to break out.
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