NBA Picks For March 29th - Against The Spread Picks And Player Props To Bet

After a small two-game slate on Thursday, the NBA is back in full swing on Friday. There are 12 games to choose from, including a few games with huge consequences.

At the top of the Western Conference standings, the Timberwolves will take on the Nuggets in Denver. Minnesota is currently half a game behind the Nuggets for the top spot in the West, so a win would vault them above them in the standings. It would also give the Timberwolves the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Moving down to the No. 6 spot, the Mavericks are currently occupying the final guaranteed playoff spot in the West after rattling off five straight wins. They’ll take on the Kings on Friday, who are currently one game back. A win for Sacramento would push them above the Mavs in the standings thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite NBA picks for March 29th's slate.

NBA Picks Against the Spread for March 29th

Wizards (-4.0) vs. Pistons (-110; Caesars)

Don’t look now, but the Wizards have played some of their best basketball of the season recently. They did suffer an overtime loss to the Nets in their last contest, but they had won their previous three games. The Wizards have just 14 wins on the season, so three wins and an overtime loss in a four-game stretch nearly warrant a parade in Washington.

They’re in a great spot to pick up another win on Friday. The Pistons are dealing with a host of key injuries. They’ve already ruled out six players, while Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are both considered questionable. If Cunningham and Ivey sit, it would leave the Pistons with a group of players that even hardcore NBA fans would struggle to recognize.

The Wizards have some injury absences of their own, but they still have most of their core intact. Kyle Kuzma, Deni Avdija, and Jordan Poole are all good to go, and Poole has played extremely well since re-entering the starting lineup. He’s started the past seven games for the Wizards and has responded with 21.4 points and 5.9 assists per game.

It’s weird to consider backing the Wizards as favorites, but this banged-up Pistons squad is one of the few spots where it makes sense. If Cunningham and Ivey are out, this number should be even larger.

Spurs (+9.5) vs. Knicks (-115; BetMGM)

The Spurs are currently holding onto the No. 3 spot in the lottery, which would give them the maximum number of ping-pong balls. That’s a pretty good incentive to tank, but the Spurs don’t seem particularly interested in doing so.

It’s a weak draft class, and getting more minutes for Victor Wembanyama is more important than increasing their shot at the No. 1 pick.

The Spurs continue to show moderate improvement over the second half of the year. They’re 20th in Net Rating since the All-Star break (-2.7 points per 100 possessions), which represents a big increase from the first half of the year (No. 27; -8.5).

Of course, having a generational talent like Wembanayama helps: He’s averaged 21.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and a ridiculous 4.4 blocks per game over the second half of the year.

Wembanyama is expected to suit up for the Knicks, who remain without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby. The Knicks are coming off a 44-point win over a lifeless Raptors team, who has now lost 12 straight games. It’s easy for a team to become inflated after a performance like that, so I’ll grab nearly double figures with the home dog.

Suns (-1.5) at Thunder (-115; Caesars)

The Suns have burned me time and time again this season. Every time I think I have them figured out, they put together a performance that changes my mind. They’ve been the third-worst ATS team in basketball this season, but they were able to upset the Nuggets in Denver in their last contest.

They’ll have to face another elite Western Conference squad on Friday, but they’re catching the Thunder at a good time. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will garner some MVP consideration, but he’s doubtful vs. Phoenix.

Without SGA, the Thunder are clearly not the same team. Their offense averages -11.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with SGA off the floor, and their Net Rating decreases by -11.6. They’ve lost their only two games without Gilgeous-Alexander this season, including a six-point home loss to the Rockets on Wednesday.

The Suns absolutely need to win this contest, currently sitting in seventh place in the Western Conference. I’m going to trust that they take things seriously.

NBA Player Props for March 29th

Kris Murray Under 9.5 points (-110; BetMGM)

The Murray under was kind to us on Wednesday, with the rookie finishing with zero points on 0-3 shooting. His scoring prop was set at 10.5 in that contest, and it’s dipped to 9.5 for Friday’s matchup vs. the Heat. Even though this prop is slightly lower, I still think it provides significant value.

For starters, his matchup vs. the Heat is a tough one. Miami has been a top-10 team in terms of defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve played at the second-slowest pace. Add both factors together, and they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest points per game.

Additionally, Murray’s playing time was slashed in their last game. He remained in the starting lineup, but he finished with just 21.6 minutes after averaging 34.9 in his previous four games. Toumani Camara’s absence could push Murray back towards 30 minutes on Friday, but he’ll still face an uphill battle to crack double-figures.

Fred VanVleet Over 16.5 points (-125; DraftKings)

The Rockets have been a fantastic story of late, rattling off 10 straight wins to move just 1.0 games behind the Warriors in the standings. It remains to be seen if they can actually catch the former champs for the final spot in the play-in tournament, but they’re clearly not scared of the moment:

They’re in a good spot to pick up another win on Friday vs. the Jazz. Utah has mailed it in over the second half of the year, ranking 25th in Net Rating and dead last in defensive efficiency. You could consider playing them as road favorites, but I’d rather target the over on VanVleet’s scoring prop.

FVV hasn’t been lighting it up of late – he’s had more than 15 points in just one of his past six games – but he’s a notoriously streaky shooter. The one game where he did go over was against this same Jazz squad, knocking down 11 of 16 shots for 34 points in less than 28 minutes. He had 18 points in his first matchup vs. the Jazz this season, so he’s 2-0 to the over at the current number.

This feels like the perfect time to buy low on VanVleet after some subpar shooting performances.

NBA Picks For March 29th - Against The Spread Picks And Player Props To Bet

NBA Picks Against the Spread for March 29th

Wizards (-4.0) vs. Pistons (-110; Caesars)

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Spurs (+9.5) vs. Knicks (-115; BetMGM)

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Suns (-1.5) at Thunder (-115; Caesars)

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NBA Player Props for March 29th

Kris Murray Under 9.5 points (-110; BetMGM)

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Fred VanVleet Over 16.5 points (-125; DraftKings)

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