NBA Picks for May 10 - Best Bets for Friday's NBA Playoff Games

Heading into the weekend with our best bets for Friday's NBA playoff games, we officially have some series.

Both the Celtics and Thunder lost at home on Thursday, with the Cavaliers and Mavericks pulling off road upsets. Both of those series are now tied at one game apiece before changing location.

Can the Pacers and Nuggets follow suit on Friday?

Indiana dropped the first two games in New York, but they’re pretty comfortable favorites at home in Game 3. The Knicks have suffered some injuries through the first two games of this series, so their rotation is being heavily tasked. They played just seven players in Game 2 – excluding 44 seconds from Alec Burks – and one of those players has already been ruled out.

Guys like Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo have carried a herculean workload so far this postseason, but only time will tell if they can keep it up.

In Friday’s other series, the defending champs are on the ropes. They dropped the first two games in Denver, and they’re now underdogs for Game 3 in Minnesota. Jamal Murray is operating at less than 100%, and they’ve had massive problems overcoming a ferocious Timberwolves’ defense.

Let’s dive into some of my NBA best bets from Friday’s pair of Game 3s.

Best NBA Pick for May 10th

Pacers Over 114.5 points (-120; DraftKings)

The Knicks are running out of bodies. They lost Mitchell Robinson for the remainder of the postseason after Game 1, and OG Anunoby went down with a hamstring injury in Game 2. Anunoby has already been ruled out for Game 3, and he’s reportedly not expected to play in Game 4, either.

Such is life under head coach Tom Thibodeau.

No one in basketball pushes their stars to a higher degree, and while that’s undoubtedly led to their success this postseason, it also comes at a cost. The team is running out of bodies. Precious Achuiwa will likely move into the starting lineup, leaving Miles McBride as their only trusted bench option.

Losing Anunoby will hurt the Knicks most defensively. When he was on the floor for the Knicks during the regular season, their Defensive Rating improved by +16.4 points per 100 possessions (per Cleaning the Glass). That’s an elite figure.

The Pacers don’t typically need any help scoring the basketball. They led the league with 122.4 points per game during the regular season, and they’ve gone over 114.5 in both of the first two games in this series.

You could consider playing the Pacers on the spread, but I’m scared of the Knicks’ ability to close games late. Grabbing the Pacers to score at least 115 points feels like the safer option.

More Bets for Friday's NBA Playoff Games

Timberwolves -4.5 vs. Nuggets (-110; BetMGM)

Calling the Timberwolves “dogs” doesn’t do things justice. They’re like a bunch of rabid hyenas who are circling their prey and are ready to start picking the bones.

Without Murray scoring 30+ points per game – something he did routinely during last year’s playoffs – this version of the Nuggets doesn’t feel the same. I’m not expecting them to roll over and die, but they’re simply outmatched in this series. I’ve been on the Wolves all series, and I see no reason to stop backing them now.

T.J. McConnell Over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110; BetMGM)

McConnell has become an absolute killer off the bench. He’s led a great group of Pacers’ reserves all season, but his impact has increased during the playoffs. McConnell has averaged 16.0 points, 8.0 assists, and 2.3 rebounds over his past three games, and he’s done it in just 22.6 minutes per contest.

It would not shock me if McConnell saw a few additional minutes in Game 3. The Pacers were +10 in McConnell’s minutes in Game 2, and he had some success defending against Jalen Brunson. Even if he doesn’t see a bump in minutes, he’s still proven he can go over this number in limited playing time.

Jamal Murray Under 20.5 points (-108; DraftKings)

Murray’s scoring prop continues to drop, but I still think it’s too high. He’s shown virtually no ability to break down this Timberwolves defense. He’s just 9-32 from the field to start the series, and he’s scored 17 and eight points in the first two games.

Unless he got healthier between Games 2 and 3 – which I doubt – he’s going to continue to struggle against the trio of Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, and Jaden McDaniels.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.125 units)
Futures: 3-2 w/ three pending (+0.25)
Playoffs: 27-27 (-0.93 units)