NBA Picks for May 16 - Best Bets for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 6

Yesterday was a very good one for us as we head into our best bets for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 6. We went 3-1 on our picks, and we officially cashed our Celtics -2.5 games bet vs. the Cavaliers. Our only loss was with the Thunder, and the fact that we have a ticket on the Mavericks to win the series makes that one a lot easier to stomach.

With the win over the Cavs, the Celtics became the first team to punch their ticket to the conference finals. They’ll await the winner of Knicks-Pacers, with Game 6 coming Friday in Indiana.

The Mavericks will have a chance to finish off the upset of the Thunder on Saturday, with Game 6 back in Dallas. Luka Doncic is coming off his best game of the series on Wednesday, finishing with a 31-point, 11-assist, 10-rebound triple-double, and having an extra day of rest should only help him get healthier.

Thursday’s slate features just one game, but it should be a good one. The Timberwolves will host the Nuggets, and they need a win to force a Game 7 back in Denver. The Nuggets have won three straight after falling in an 0-2 hole, so they appear to have all the momentum.

Can the Timberwolves bounce back at home, or will the Nuggets wrap things up in six? Let’s dive into my NBA picks for May 16.

Best Bets for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 6

Timberwolves -2.0 vs. Nuggets (-112; DraftKings)

After the Timberwolves won the first two games of this series, this series has been all Denver.

They’ve won the following three games by a combined 50 points, including a 15-point victory in Game 5. Nikola Jokic put together a masterclass in that contest, scoring 40 points on 15-22 shooting with seven rebounds and 13 assists. When he plays like that, beating the Nuggets becomes nearly impossible.

That said, Game 4 should give the Timberwolves a glimmer of hope.

They proved that they can go toe-to-toe with this team, at least when their starters are on the floor. Anthony Edwards was +5 in nearly 45.5 minutes, so the fact that the team lost by eight points is pretty remarkable. They were outscored by 13 points in the 2.5 minutes that Edwards sat, so the Nuggets’ reserves vastly outplayed the Timberwolves’ in that contest.

Edwards should be able to bounce back after a disappointing showing in Game 5. It was his worst game of the series, finishing with just 18 points on 5-15 shooting, and he could potentially go the whole game if needed in a win-or-go-home spot.

The public is unsurprisingly all over the defending champs in this spot, but the sharps seem to like the Timberwolves. They’ve received 38% of the dollars on just 29% of the bets (per the Action Network), so the more significant wagers are siding with the home favorites. Let’s hope we get a Game 7 in this series because it has the potential to be really fun.

More Bets for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 6

Christian Braun Over 9.5 rebounds + points (-128)

If I’m being honest, this is probably my favorite bet on the slate. However, I didn’t want to lead with a prop bet, so it’ll have to settle for second billing.

Braun did not take the leap that most expected during his sophomore season, but he’s starting to pay dividends in the playoffs. His ability on the defensive end has helped the Nuggets, which has earned him more playing time as the series has progressed. He racked up 25.3 minutes in Game 4, and that figure increased to 28.3 minutes in Game 5.

If Braun is going to continue to play that much, this prop is far too low. He had at least 14 points + rebounds in the two previous contests, and he had at least 10 points + rebounds in 13 of 15 regular season contests with at least 25 minutes.

I rarely bet a full unit on a player prop, but this is the exception.

Jaden McDaniels Over 4.5 rebounds + assists (+106)

We successfully rode this prop in Game 5, and I’m going right back to the well. McDaniels has seen a healthy number of minutes in this series, and that doesn’t figure to change with Mike Conley out or limited.

He had six rebounds + assists in roughly 30 minutes in Game 5, and he averaged 5.5 rebounds + assists per 36 minutes during the regular season. Anything better than even money is a solid target.

2024 NBA Playoffs Bets Record

Yesterday: 3-1 (+0.95 units)
Futures: 4-2 w/ two pending (+0.75)
Playoffs: 34-35 (-1.5 units)