NBA Win Total Bets for the 2024-25 Season: Fade a reloaded Sixers team?

It feels like we just crowned the Boston Celtics champions – the 18th championship in team history – but it’s time to turn the page to next year.

The NBA Draft has already happened, the big free agents have signed, and Summer League is taking place as we speak. Before we know it, the teams will be tipping off to start the 2024-25 regular season.

There are many ways you can play NBA futures, but win total over/unders is one of my favorites. After all, only one team can win the NBA Finals, but you can make money off all 30 teams in their win total market.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite NBA win total bets for the upcoming season.

NBA Win Total Overs to Bet for 2024-25

San Antonio Spurs Over 35.5 (-110; BetMGM)

This might be a “trendy” over, but I can’t help it. Victor Wembanyama is coming off one of the greatest rookie seasons in history, and I’m super excited about what he can do in Year Two.

The crazy thing is – Wembanyama doesn’t really need to improve for the Spurs to hit the over on this total. After the All-Star break, the team had a positive Net Rating with the wunderkind on the floor. He averaged 23.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game while providing some of the best defense in all of basketball.

Of course, Wembanyama is going to get better. He’s still just 20 years old and won't turn 21 until the middle of next year. His potential is unlimited, and he’ll have a better supporting cast to work with in 2024-25.

The big addition was Chris Paul, who is coming off the worst season of his career. He’s clearly on the downside of his career, but don’t underestimate what his veteran presence can bring to a young team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander credits Paul with helping him develop as a player, and he just led the Thunder to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Harrison Barnes also gives the Spurs a reliable scoring option, while Stephon Castle brings championship experience from UConn and excellent perimeter defense. Add those guys to Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan, and this team has the potential to make the play-in tournament. I’d rather be a year too early than a year too late.

Phoenix Suns Over 46.5 (-110; FanDuel)

The Suns were one of the biggest disappointments in basketball last season. They managed to avoid the play-in tournament and finish with the final guaranteed playoff spot in the Western Conference, but they were swept by the Timberwolves in the first round. With Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal combining for more than $150M towards the salary cap, it doesn’t leave them much space to improve their roster heading into next season.

Still, I can’t help but feel this team is being undervalued. After all, they did win 49 games last season despite getting off to a slow start. With a full year under their belts, it would not be a shock if they improved just due to increased chemistry.

This team still employs two of the best scorers in the world in Durant and Booker. They both averaged 27.1 points per game last season, and they did it with excellent shooting efficiency. Beal also averaged 18.2 points on 51.3% shooting in his 53 games last year, while Grayson Allen developed into one of the best 3-point shooters in basketball. In other words – scoring should not be a problem.

Maybe the Suns don’t have the depth to contend for a title, but I see no reason why they can’t threaten 50 wins for the second straight year.

NBA Win Total Unders to Bet for 2024-25

Utah Jazz Under 28.5 (-120; Caesars)

The Jazz are currently my pick to finish with one of the three worst records in the NBA. That’s a bit of a hot take based on the current win totals. Their number is set at 28.5, while the Nets, Wizards, Blazers, and Pistons are all at 24.5 or lower.

However, I don’t think the market is accounting for the Jazz trading away Lauri Markkanen, which seems like an inevitability before the start of the season. Markkanen is on the last year of his deal before hitting unrestricted free agency, and the Jazz figure they have little chance of bringing him back. With the team not expected to contend anyway, it makes sense to turn Markkanen into something that could help the long-term outlook of the franchise.

Markkanen is easily the team’s best player, and he’s a borderline top-20 player overall. He’s averaged 24.5 points per game over the past two seasons while shooting 49.0% from the field and 39.5% from 3-point range.

In more than 2100 minutes without Markkanen last season, the team was among the worst in basketball. They were outscored by 9.5 points per 100 possessions; only the Hornets had a worse season-long mark, and they won just 21 games.

If Markkanen goes, there is nothing to get excited about in the cupboard. Keyonte George has potential, but he struggled for most of his rookie season. First-round pick Cody Williams is more of a role player than a future star. Jordan Clarkson could also get traded before the deadline to a team in need of scoring help.

Ultimately, this feels like the start of a new chapter in Utah. Don’t be surprised if it gets off to an ugly start.

Philadelphia 76ers Under 52.5 (+100; Caesars)

The 76ers are the rare team where I might bet them to win the NBA title and go under their win total. When healthy, this team has the potential to be among the best in basketball. The combination of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and the newly-acquired Paul George is one of the best “Big Threes” in basketball.

Of course, the keyword there is “when healthy.

Embiid has missed time in every professional season, topping out at 68 games in 2022-23. He’s played 51 games or fewer in three of the past five seasons, including just 39 last year. Expecting him to play more than 60 games or so in 2024-25 feels like a mistake.

George hasn’t been the picture of health either. He played 74 games last year, but he logged 56 or fewer in each of the four prior seasons.

Ultimately, getting this team healthy to the playoffs should be the priority. It doesn’t matter what seed they are; if they make the postseason at full strength, no one is going to want to play them.