NFC East Betting Preview: Eagles Ready Fly High
Matt LaMarca breaks down the NFC East, projecting which are the best bets to make for the Eagles, Cowboys, Commanders, and Giants.
The NFC East has been full of parity for the past two decades. In fact, there hasn’t been a repeat champ since 2004, so the Cowboys will have to break that streak if they’re looking to repeat. They finished atop the NFC East in 2023 after finishing with a 12-5 record for the third straight year. The Eagles were forced to settle for a Wild Card after starting 10-1 but finishing 11-6.
It is largely expected to be a two-team race once again in 2024, with the Commanders and Giants both considered very unlikely to make the playoffs. The Commanders will be starting over with a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels, while the Giants are looking to bounce back after a disastrous campaign.
Let’s dive into my favorite bet for each team in the NFC East.
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
- Win Total: 10.5 Over (-130; DraftKings), Under (+125; Caesars)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-250; DraftKings), No (+240; BetMGM)
- To Win Division: -125 (DraftKings)
- To Win NFC: +600 (FanDuel)
- To Win Super Bowl: +1400 (DraftKings)
Everything appeared to go right for the Eagles to start last season. They were sitting at 10-1 after the first 12 weeks, including three straight wins vs. the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills. They were in great shape to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC and potentially make the Super Bowl for the second straight season.
However, things weren’t quite as rosy under the surface. They had some issues, and while they overcame them for a while, they ultimately destroyed the Eagles down the stretch. They lost five of their final six games and then were blown out by an underwhelming Bucs squad in the playoffs.
Their biggest issues—by far—were on defense. After finishing fourth in EPA per play defensively in 2022, the team slipped all the way to 29th in 2024. They were the fifth-worst unit against the pass and third-worst against the run, and they only got worse as the year progressed.
They worked hard to upgrade their pass defense in the offseason. They spent their first two draft picks on cornerbacks and signed C.J. Gardner-Johnson at safety. They also brought in Bryce Huff to rush the passer, who was eighth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate last season. Overall, they should be significantly better on that side of the ball this season.
That said, the defense is only half the battle. Their offense also regressed badly in their first year without Shane Steichen as offensive coordinator.
Schematically, the team played significantly slower under Brian Johnson. They played at the fastest pace in the league with Steichen at the helm in the first half of games, but they dropped to 25th under Johnson. Their passing game was also way less productive, with Jalen Hurts dipping from 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt in 2022 to 6.8 last season.
Unsurprisingly, the team will try a new OC in 2024. Kellen Moore was brought in to replace Johnson, and he’ll hopefully help the Eagles get their explosiveness back. They were the most explosive offense in all of football in 2022, but they dipped to 20th last season.
The team signed Saquon Barkley in free agency to help, and he’s poised for a career year behind their fantastic offensive line. The Eagles have been a top-two squad in run block win rate over the past two years, while the Giants have finished 26th or worse. Barkley is one of the most talented runners in football, so some better blocking should result in big plays.
The biggest reason to believe in an Eagles’ bounceback is the schedule. They had a very unfavorable schedule from a rest perspective last year, and they felt the effects. They were 0-5-1 ATS with less rest than their opponent (3-3 straight up), but they were 5-2-2 ATS in all other situations where they played their starters (7-2 straight up).
The Eagles’ rest fortunes will flip completely in 2024. They’re slated to play five games with a rest advantage and only one game at a disadvantage. Their +12-day rest edge is tied for the second-best mark in the league. The Eagles also have the eighth-easiest schedule in terms of opponent Vegas win totals, so it’s very manageable overall.
I recommended grabbing the Eagles to win the NFC East when the schedule was first released at +125. That number is long gone, but I still think they’re playable at -125. This number has gotten as high as -150 at some locations, so they’ve emerged as the clear favorites in the NFC East.
Bets
- Eagles to Win Division (-125)
DALLAS COWBOYS
- Win Total: 9.5 Over (-144; FanDuel), Under (+125; Caesars)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-180; Caesars), No (+170; DraftKings)
- To Win Division: +185 (Caesars)
- To Win NFC: +900 (Caesars)
- To Win Super Bowl: +2000 (BetMGM)
The Cowboys have been the model of consistency over the past decade. They’ve won fewer than eight games just twice in the past 13 years, and they’ve had double-digit wins six times. That includes 12 wins in three straight seasons. They’ve yet to get over the hump in the playoffs, but they’ve gotten there as often as anyone in football.
However, 2024 represents a bit of a change for the Cowboys. They got away with paying Dak Prescott below market value for years, which allowed them to build a juggernaut around him.
That’s no longer the case. Prescott will count as more than $55M toward the cap in 2024, which is easily the top mark in the NFL. No one else is above $49M, and only three other players are above $37M.
That impact is already being felt. After spending the 10th most on defense in 2023, they’re down to 28th in 2024. They’ve had to let key players walk away, including two offensive linemen (Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz), two skill-position players (Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup), and two parts of their secondary (Stephon Gilmore and Jayron Kearse).
It goes without saying that if you’re going to pay your quarterback like he’s Patrick Mahomes, he better produce like Mahomes. Prescott has largely done that throughout his career, at least during the regular season. He was second in EPA + CPOE composite among qualified passers in 2023, and he was PFF’s No. 4 quarterback.
However, Prescott did that against a very easy schedule. All told, 11 of their 17 games came against teams that finished outside the top 20 in total defense. They’re not expected to run the gauntlet in 2024—such is the beauty of playing the Giants and Commanders four times a year—but it’s going to be tougher by default.
That could be an issue. Under Prescott, the Cowboys have been massive bullies. When they’re playing subpar competition, they tend to beat them to a pulp. Over the past three seasons, they’re 25-4 against non-playoff opponents, but they’re just 12-14 against teams that make the postseason. Nine of their 17 games in 2024 will come against teams that made the playoffs last year, and that doesn’t include matchups vs. the Falcons and Bengals. Both teams have win totals approaching double figures, so they could easily be playoff squads this year.
The team did manage to avoid disaster and get CeeDee Lamb under contract, but there are still a lot of concerns this year that did not exist in the past. Unless Prescott is able to elevate his game to another level, I’m expecting regression. Getting the Cowboys to miss the postseason at +170 feels like an excellent value.
Bets
- Cowboys to Miss the Playoffs (+170)
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
- Win Total: 6.5 Over (-115; Caesars), Under (+110; DraftKings)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+310; FanDuel), No (-340; DraftKings)
- To Win Division: +1200 (BetMGM)
- To Win NFC: +5000 (Caesars)
- To Win Super Bowl: +15000 (Caesars)
For years, the stink of Daniel Synder wafted through this organization like a fart on a plane. He was arguably the worst owner in all of sports, and his absence has to feel like a breath of fresh air.
The Commanders will be looking to turn the page in 2024 with a completely revamped organization. That includes the coaching staff, the starting quarterback, and a lot of the key defensive pieces.
Jayden Daniels will get the ball in Week 1 after being drafted No. 2 overall. Daniels checks all the boxes for a modern QB prospect. He combines elite athleticism with big-time college production, culminating in a Heisman Trophy in 2023. He was an absolute monster in his final year at LSU, racking up 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns through the air and 1,134 yards and 10 scores on the ground. PlayerProfiler lists his closest comparable as Lamar Jackson, and while that’s high praise, it’s the kind of upside he brings to the table.
The question is—will Daniels be able to harness it in Year One?
He’s going to have to do a lot of it by himself. He doesn’t have a ton of supporting talent on offense, with Terry McLaurin standing out as the only above-average skill-position player. The team also used a third-round pick on Luke McCaffrey, and we’ll see if he’s anything like his brother.
It’s also a rebuilding year for the defense. Stalwarts like Chase Young and Montez Sweat are gone, and the team figures to have seven new starters on defense this season. The stud interior duo of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne remain, but everything else is a major question mark.
Ultimately, it feels like too much for the Commanders to overcome. They’re currently favored in just three of 17 games, and none of those are by more than a field goal.
Instead, I’m going to look toward Daniels in the Offensive Rookie of the Year market. He’s priced significantly cheaper than Caleb Williams (+140; Caesars), and I’m not sure why that’s the case. From a purely statistical standpoint, it wouldn’t shock me if Daniels is the better player. Williams does have the benefit of playing for the “better” team, but that doesn’t matter if he doesn’t perform. I’ll take my chances with Daniels at +600 over Williams every day of the week.
Bets
- Jayden Daniels Offensive Rookie of the Year (+600; FanDuel)
NEW YORK GIANTS
- Win Total: 6.5 Over (+120; Caesars), Under (-128; FanDuel)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+400; DraftKings), No (-470; FanDuel)
- To Win Division: +2000 (BetMGM)
- To Win NFC: +7500 (Caesars)
- To Win Super Bowl: +20000 (Caesars)
It was only two years ago that the Giants made a miraculous run to the postseason. They even managed to beat the Vikings in the playoffs, which was enough to secure Brian Daboll Coach of the Year and Daniel Jones a fat contract.
Everyone knew their production in 2022 was fluky, so they were widely expected to regress in 2023. However, the regression hit them like a freight train. They fell from nine wins to six, and they finished with the worst yardage differential and third-worst scoring differential in the league.
While some of that regression was inevitable, it’s fair to say they were a bit unlucky as well. From a health standpoint, they were the eighth-most injured squad in 2023. Jones played in just six games, while their offensive line was in shambles for most of the year. Stud left tackle Andrew Thomas missed seven contests, and they missed the seventh-most games among offensive linemen overall.
Even when Thomas was on the field, the line was a major concern. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that they hit the position group hard this offseason. Two of their three biggest veteran acquisitions were on the offensive line, so they should be better from a blocking perspective this season.
They’re also going to give Jones a legit pass catcher for the first time in his career. They spent the No. 6 overall pick on Malik Nabers, who has the potential to be the next great LSU wide receiver. He was Daniels’ top option in 2023, finishing with more than 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns in 13 games. Athletically, he possesses elite speed and run-after-catch ability, and the Giants looked to get him the ball at a massive rate during the preseason. He had a 33% target share with the starters, and he racked up just under 50% of the team’s air yards.
On defense, their biggest strength is in the trenches. The trio of Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux has the potential to be a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. The rest of the D is a bit of a question mark, but if you can pressure the QB, it can cover up a lot of flaws.
Ultimately, I think the Giants are in a position to surprise some people in 2024. I think they have an outside chance to pass the Cowboys in the standings, and I’m happy to grab the over on 6.5 wins at +120. I’ll also sprinkle on Nabers to win OROY at +1500.
Bets
- Giants Over 6.5 wins (+120)
- Malik Nabers Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1500; FanDuel)
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