NFL Bets That Are Boring, Yet Could be Profitable in 2024
Matthew Freedman unveils NFL bets for the upcoming 2024 season that may not be flashy, but they have a good probability of winning.
I recently published a piece highlighting a few bold bets for the 2024 NFL season.
Here's the thing: I'm not a bold guy.
But I am a savvy negotiator, evidenced by the fact that I just spent multiple hours on the phone with various service providers in order to save perhaps hundreds of pennies on my internet bill over the next 12 months.
Anyway, when my editors assigned me a bold bets piece, I told them I'd do it on one condition: That I also be allowed to write a companion piece on boring bets.
After much debate and a heated best-of-seven videoconference game of Rock, Paper, Scissors—I got my way.
So here are some of my favorite boring bets for the upcoming NFL season (all logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).
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Chiefs to Win Super Bowl 59
- Odds: +550 (FanDuel)
- Cutoff: +500
This line was +600 when I first bet it, but I still like it well enough at the current price. I break this bet down in detail in my article on my favorite Super Bowl picks, so I won't give the full analysis here, but the quick version is this.
- The team's +550 odds to win the Super Bowl carry a 15.38% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and that number on its face strikes me as too low.
- As long as the Chiefs have QB Patrick Mahomes and HC Andy Reid, they should have a good chance of winning at least one Super Bowl every six years, and that would make them profitable at +550.
- They were No. 2 in scoring and yards allowed last year, and even with the loss of CB L'Jarius Sneed this offseason they are still likely to have a top-eight defense in 2024.
- Last year the Chiefs were No. 15 in scoring after finishing top-six in each of the six previous seasons, and they are likely to enjoy an offensive bounceback in 2024 with the additions of WRs Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy.
- They are in a weak division, thanks primarily to the Broncos (5.5 win total) and Raiders (6.5). As long as the Chiefs split their season series with the Chargers, they should be able to earn another AFC West title and strong postseason seeding.
It's boring to say that the best team in the league is a good bet to win the Super Bowl—but it's true.
49ers to Win NFC West
- Odds: -190 (Caesars)
- Cutoff: -250
Another shocker, I know.
There's nothing heroic about betting the 49ers to win their division—but I'm not trying to wage a war. I'm trying to make money, and HC Kyle Shanahan's team is undervalued (in my opinion).
Over the past five years, the 49ers have made the NFC Championship four times and just narrowly missed out on two Super Bowl victories.
They're unquestionably one of the league's best teams, and with QB Brock Purdy the 49ers have exceeded expectations with a 21-6 record (including postseason). They've especially outperformed with Purdy in division against the spread (ATS) and on the moneyline (ML).
- Brock Purdy (ATS): In division—6-2 (42.6% ROI) | Outside division —9-10 (-9.8% ROI)
- Brock Purdy (ML): In division—8-0 (21.9% ROI) | Outside division—13-6 (-5.1% ROI)
The NFC West isn't a cakewalk … but the Rams have a 36-year-old QB with a long injury history, the Seahawks have a rookie HC, and the Cardinals have a defense that the fantasy market regards as the league's worst (per our Fantasy Life ADP Tool).
Compare that to the 49ers, who last year were No. 1 with 6.6 yards per play, 0.179 expected points added per play, and a 51.6% success rate (per RBs Don't Matter) and this year return the entire core of their offense and almost all their offensive coaches.
It's boring to say the 49ers will win their division, but it's probably accurate.
Derrick Henry & Christian McCaffrey to Lead NFL in Rushing TDs
- Odds: Henry +700 (BetRivers) | McCaffrey +750 (FanDuel)
- Projection: Henry 10.9 | McCaffrey 10.3
It sounds almost stupid to say that either Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey will lead the league in rushing TDs this year.
One doesn't need to be Sherlock Holmes to sense that they should be the favorites in this market.
But I don't think they're favored by enough.
Yes, RB Raheem Mostert came out of nowhere last season to have an NFL-high 18 TDs on the ground, and after him QBs Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen tied for second with 15—but McCaffrey and Henry still showed well with 14 and 12, respectively, and they're forecast with the two highest rushing TD totals this year in our Fantasy Life Aggregate Projections.
Including the playoffs, McCaffrey had 18 TDs rushing in 19 games. In his 31 games with at least a 50% snap rate since joining the 49ers in the middle of the 2022 season, McCaffrey has 26 TDs on the ground.
If McCaffrey stays healthy and gets a little lucky, he has a real shot to average more than a TD per game. Last year, he was No. 3 in the league with 21 carries inside the five-yard line (per our Fantasy Life Redzone Report), even with exiting Week 17 early and sitting out all of Week 18.
As for Henry, he's set to inherit the short-yardage role previously held by Gus Edwards, who last year was No. 2 with 24 inside-the-five carries, which he converted into a league-high 12 goal-line TDs. While QB Lamar Jackson is one of the best pure runners in the league, he has done remarkably little inside the five-yard line in recent seasons.
- 2023: 4 carries | 1 TD
- 2022: 3 carries | 1 TD
- 2021: 6 carries | 2 TDs
- 2020: 3 carries | 2 TDs
Now in a Ravens offense that last year was No. 4 in scoring, Henry should get as much goal-line work as he can handle—and he proved throughout his Titans tenure that he can handle a lot, scoring double-digit TDs rushing in each of the past six seasons and a league-high 16 and 17, respectively, in 2019 and 2020.
With the exception of his injury-impacted eight-game 2021, Henry has led the league in carries in each of the past five years with 303, 378, 349, and 280 carries—and in 2021 he had a career-high 27.4 rushing attempts per game.
Given his proven scoring prowess and ability to rack up attempts, Henry (like McCaffrey) has an excellent chance to lead the league in rushing TDs.
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