NFL Bounce Back Candidates: Which Non-Playoff Teams Will Outperform in 2024?

One of the things that makes the NFL great is the parity that exists throughout the league. No matter how poorly a team performs, there is always hope that next season will be different.

And often, it is.

Teams in the NFL tend to bounce back with an alarming amount of regularity thanks to a variety of factors, none of which is greater than the variance of a short 17-game season and the fact football is a violent game where injuries play a key role.

Here are some stats that best exemplify this point:

In 19 of the past 21 seasons, at least one team that finished in last place the year prior managed to win its division
In 2023-24 six teams made the playoffs after missing the postseason the year prior
in 2021-22 and 2022-23, seven teams made the playoffs after missing the postseason the year prior
In 2023-24 we saw five new teams make the divisional round (final eight) over 2022-23

With the preseason getting closer now’s the time to think about who the next batch of bounce-back candidates will be.

For this article, I’ve broken down my favorite (and least favorite) non-playoff teams into one of three different categories (Real Upside; Potential to Outperform; and More Trouble Ahead) and also listed off the bets that have the most interest to me for each squad.

It’s early, so investing in futures may not be something you're ready to do quite yet but for now, I want to set a good base for how I view betting on these teams in the future going into training camp and preseason.

With that in mind, let’s dive in and see which non-playoff teams from last season stand out as we hit the beginning of the summer.

Real Upside: Indianapolis Colts

This year will be the second season for head coach Shane Steichen, who was one of the finalists for Coach of the Year in his rookie season. Steichen impressed on many fronts, but his early season ability to shape the offense around Anthony Richardson’s unique skillset stands out as one of the main reasons to be bullish on the Colts for 2023-24.

The Colts called 15 designed runs for Richardson over his four starts in his rookie year, and his 22% explosive rush rate would have been first among all QBs.

Oct 8, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Further, while Richardson’s decision-making was often a hot-button topic, people seem to overlook the upside he brings as a passer. It’s a small sample, but his 10.7% explosive pass rate would have ranked him third among all passers last season and would have been a huge improvement on the Colts' overall performance in that area last season (20th - 8%).

Worries about Richardson’s health are valid, but recency bias is also creeping into people’s analysis, who want to ignore that other rushing QBs like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen bring with them the same kinds of tail risk. Additionally, the Colts did the smart thing and reinvested in the backup position, bringing in a veteran gunslinger in Joe Flacco. Steichen was able to successfully reshape the offense last season around the less mobile Gardner Minshew, and one would think Flacco (who carried the Browns to the postseason last year) likely gives the Colts a higher ceiling in the backup position.

The Colts also had a very strong draft by most accounts. DE Laiatu Latu was considered by many as the best pure edge rusher and most talented defensive player available, and they seemingly got great value in Round 2 when WR Adonai Mitchell fell to them; Mitchell was projected as a first-round pick by many.

While the Colts may not be able to catch as many teams off guard this year after such a solid first season under Steichen, Indianapolis also has the benefit of having the seventh-easiest schedule in the league (by Vegas win totals). They do open up with two tough games (Houston at home, and Green Bay on the road) but the schedule loosens up after that. Overall, they have six games against teams who currently have totals of 6.5 or lower in the team win markets.

Potential Bets: Indianapolis Over 8.5 wins (+110; bet365) and Division Winner (+330; FanDuel)

I think the Colts have plenty of upside this season. The over 8.5 wins remains my favorite play at the moment as long as it stays on the right side of +100 but I'm not against playing Indianapolis for more upside in the division-winner market either. They stand out as decent value there given that they still have longer odds than the Jaguars who had a less impressive offseason and don’t have the luxury of adding a franchise-altering player like Richardson.

Honorable mentions: New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons

For more discussion on the Falcons and Jets also check out our 2024 Schedule Winners and Loser article, where both Atlanta and New York are highlighted.

Potential to Outperform: Washington Commanders

The Commanders are turning the page on the Ron Rivera-era this season and going with a veteran duo of Kliff Kingsbury at OC and Dan Quinn at HC. They’ll have a rookie DC in Joe Whitt Jr. but also brought in Larry Izzo to run special teams. Izzo ran high-ranking special teams units in both Houston and Seattle before landing with Washington.

Quinn may not be the most inspiring hire, but it’s also hard to argue with his record. Before getting fired after an 0-5 start in 2020, he had compiled five seasons as HC with Atlanta, all of which yielded seven or more wins—and two of which yielded 10 wins or more. His departure also aligned with a huge decline in Matt Ryan’s play, which was likely more to blame for Atlanta’s downfall than Quinn’s coaching.

Quinn’s presence also bodes well for the Commanders' defense, which ranked just 26th in defensive DVOA last season. Quinn helped turn around the Cowboys' defense in 2021 and they were again a top unit last season, ranking 9th in DVOA.

On offense, Washington had a lot of players underperform last year but enter 2024-25 with a better depth chart and far more upside than they have had in previous seasons. QB Jayden Daniels' versatility and explosive run rate were well documented by Ian Hartitz in our pre-draft scouting report. Additionally, unlike Bryce Young last season, Daniels isn’t walking into a situation where he’ll be expected to turn lemons into lemonade. WR Terry McLaurin remains a solid outside threat, capable of taking on the opposing team’s best corners, and Washington invested in more help via the draft (WR Luke McCaffrey) and free agency (Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler).

Dec 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) catches a pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not predicting the Commanders to make their first Super Bowl appearance since 1991, but given the overall parity in the NFC, the upside for them to outperform is there. Inter-division, the Giants missed out on upgrading at the QB position and are one of the teams I have pegged to underperform again in 2024. Additionally, the Cowboys will have to adjust to life without Quinn, who was their DC for the last three seasons. Washington has the 13th easiest schedule this season and on top of facing the Giants, they also match up against the NFC South, which will likely be one of the weakest divisions in the league again.

Potential Bets: Commanders Over 6.5 wins (-115; FanDuel); To Make the Playoffs (+310; FanDuel)

Betting on Commanders’ overs isn’t something I’m rushing out to do in June. However, it does appear like Daniels’ upside is being somewhat underrated by the overall market, which has the Sam Darnold / JJ McCarthy-led Vikings as bigger favorites to go over 6.5 wins.

The Commanders will likely be a team I take to go over their win total at some point this off-season but they’re also a team I may look to dabble on in other markets to leverage the potential upside of Daniels and a Dan Quinn-led defense.

Honorable mentions: Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks

Potential to Outperform: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee ended last season with a 6-11 record finishing last in the division and eventually parting ways with Head Coach Mike Vrabel. The team hired former Bengals OC Brian Callahan who managed a respectable 13th rating in EPA per play on offense in Cincinnati, despite losing Joe Burrow early in the season. The Bengals also ranked fifth under Callahan in that category in 2022. Callahan may be a rookie head coach but he’s assembled a staff with a lot of NFL experience.

DC Dennard Wilson stands out as he was the Ravens' Defensive Backs coach last season, during a year in which the Ravens led the league in yards per pass attempt against.

The Titans' decision to roll with QB Will Levis as their starter should not be snickered at either. Levis played behind one of the worst offensive lines in football last season but it’s an area that Tennessee has already addressed. They signed C Lloyd Cushenberry III from Denver and used the seventh pick in the draft to select OT JC Latham. Levis showcased real arm talent and was one of the leaders in explosive passing plays after taking over as the starter.

The Titans retained DeAndre Hopkins and added Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to bolster what was at times one of the thinnest WR cores in the league last season. They also added another legit pass-catching back in Tony Pollard, who figures to split time with second-year back Tajae Spears and may benefit from a lighter workload.

The moves may not be good for your fantasy team but the depth of weapons will make them tough for opposing defenses to match up with.

One thing is certain, the new players they brought in will certainly bring better upside potential to an offense that ranked just 25th in Offensive DVOA last season.

Potential Bets: Titans Over 6.5 wins (+110; bet365); Titans to make the playoffs (+440; FanDuel)

The Titans have a revamped depth chart, and an offensive-minded head coach, and may catch several teams off guard in 2024-25 because of it.

Like Washington, there is no need to rush out and bet on Tennessee this early, but they’re a team I’ll be watching closely in the preseason to see if they warrant a play in either the win/loss or make the playoffs market.

Honorable mention: Seattle Seahawks

More Trouble Ahead: Minnesota Vikings

Things are already starting to look somewhat bleak for the Vikings. Reports out of voluntary training camp on 10th overall pick JJ McCarthy were mixed at best. It’s too early to get overly concerned about this stuff, but the fact he was working behind Sam Darnold and Nick Mullens isn’t the greatest sign that he’ll necessarily hit the ground running.

Long term, McCarthy may be fine, but this season may be a challenge. There is also some tail risk with the Vikings in general who have yet to work out a long-term deal with Justin Jefferson, who has no incentive to make this easy on Minnesota now that they have chosen to move on from Kirk Cousins and potentially burn a year of Jefferson’s prime developing a new QB.

The Vikings also haven’t been given the gift of an easy schedule that other non-playoff teams have. Minnesota, despite finishing third in their division last season, has the 28th toughest schedule in the league and the second hardest schedule of all non-playoff teams. They’re also in what figures to be one of the most competitive divisions in football. The NFC North includes two playoff teams from 2023-24 (each of whom had a chance to knock off the conference-winning 49ers) and a Bears team that has been accumulating talent for years—and figures to feature one of the top defenses in the league.

The Vikings also managed to snag LB Dallas Turner in the first round but added just one other pick between Rounds 2-5. Overall, they’ll have to hope for more upside from a somewhat aging defense that ranked just 17th in EPA per play last year.

Jan 7, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) looks at the big screen during second half of the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota opens up against the Giants, but their next six games are against teams with win/loss totals of 8.5 or higher. The downward snowball effect could take hold fast, especially with a rookie QB at the helm who already looks like he may need time to develop—and a star WR who may be checked out or on his way out. Either way, it’s not hard to see Minnesota as a team with more downside to give in 2024-25.

Potential Bets: Vikings Under 6.5 wins (+110; bet365)

With so much uncertainty at QB, a somewhat aging defense, and an unforgiving schedule, it’s not hard to see the Vikings struggling.

I’m not anti-Minnesota Vikings fans, but unless we get some better news out of training camp I may even look to take the under on some alternate win-loss totals for more upside as Week 1 gets closer.

Honorable Mentions: New York Giants

NFL Bounce Back Candidates: Which Non-Playoff Teams Will Outperform in 2024?

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Real Upside: Indianapolis Colts

Potential to Outperform: Washington Commanders

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Potential to Outperform: Tennessee Titans

More Trouble Ahead: Minnesota Vikings

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