The NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award is one of the more wide-open honors that is handed out by the NFL each season. Really, anyone in the league is eligible to win the award as the NFL doesn’t have a strict criteria for what entails a “comeback.”

Over the last decade, we have seen numerous players win Comeback Player of the Year simply for making it back onto the field after suffering a debilitating injury or illness. 

However, performance metrics are still used to judge this award, too. Geno Smith won in 2022 despite not suffering any injury issues the previous season. Smith’s comeback was purely statistical as he’d been a mediocre backup his entire career until 2022-23, when he posted career-best numbers. 

With all of these angles to consider, the betting market for this award often does provide very solid opportunities in the sports betting department, and last year, NFL bettors who jumped on Smith (who was +2500 after Week 3) early in the season were heftily rewarded. 

For 2023, we’re tracking the current sportsbook odds in the table below. The current standings for 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds look like this:

NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds courtesy of BetMGM sportsbook, last updated 1/6/24

Despite this award being dominated by quarterbacks as of late, Hamlin is still in a great spot to win. The last time we saw a defensive player take home the award was in 2016 when Eric Berry won the award after beating cancer the year prior. Hamlin’s got an even stronger narrative given how highly profiled his near-death experience was—and the fact it occurred during a game. 

In terms of quarterbacks, it’s worth noting that many of the signal callers who won this award in the past few seasons were also coming back from serious injuries (Alex Smith and Joe Burrow most recently). That’s part of the reason why we shouldn’t be too quick to write off names like Tua Tagovailoa or Trey Lance this early, even if they are going up against a very unique story in Damar Hamlin. 

2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award - betting trends 

Depth of comeback means more than overall stats

Recent winners like Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith have won this award based almost solely on them posting career numbers—after seasons of mediocrity. However, it should be noted that when great stories come along, voters will tend to ignore stats or numbers. 

Alex Smith is a great recent example of this trend. He recovered from a gruesome leg injury that almost saw him lose his leg two years prior, and was able to start multiple games for Washington during the 2020 season. 

Smith was not very effective, throwing for just six TDs (vs. eight INTs), but given how much he had to come back from just to make it back to the field (and be in a position to actually start games again), the voters still sided with him for the award. 

It’s also worth noting that Smith went off at just +300 for this award when the 2020 season began. The fact he was at those odds, yet not expected to be anything more than a backup, also shows you how much respect bettors place on narrative and the size of the comeback in question. 

Stats still matter, but if you’re only looking at numbers and ignoring the storyline associated with each player’s comeback, you’ll be far more likely to miss out on the eventual winner in this award. 

Watch out for in-season moves

A comeback also sometimes takes time to build momentum. 

Multiple times over the past decade, we have had players who were far off the radar for this award step into new roles and suddenly produce wildly better numbers than expected. Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith are two great examples of players who weren’t even listed in the odds for NFL betting purposes for much of the preseason, but made big moves once the season began. 

In Tannehill’s case, he took over at quarterback a few games into the season for Tennessee and ended up leading them to the playoffs. Those kinds of in-season moves can provide big momentum for a player (especially quarterbacks), and help them build sentiment with voters in a hurry. 

When should you bet on 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

For 2023, the move is definitely to take a wait-and-see approach.

We have a massive favorite in Damar Hamlin, who already sits at -650 despite training camp still being months away. Hamlin’s comeback is both inspiring and miraculous, and a story the NFL will rightfully be covering ad nauseam. 

Feb 8, 2023; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin accepts the Alan Page Community Award during the NFLPA press conference at the Phoenix Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Despite the likelihood that Hamlin all but secures this award once he plays his first snap of the season, there are some risks that could curtail his momentum and that do make this market worth watching. If Hamlin reports to training camp and looks ready to secure a spot on the active roster, or potentially even rejoin the starting lineup, then his current odds will actually offer good value. 

If his play falls off in the summer or more medical issues take shape, then there will be opportunity to target some of the names farther back in the odds. 

Either way, this is an award you should be waiting and watching until training camp begins and we see how Hamlin and the other players involved shape up once the pads are on.