We have finally made it to the postseason, but our work does not stop here. If anything, the lines are only getting sharper in the playoffs, so we’re going to have to work even harder in the early markets.

If you’re new to this article, the premise is simple: We’re looking to grab the best numbers that we can early in the week.

In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — i.e., getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.

The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves.

Let’s dive into how I’m approaching both games for the Conference Championship games.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Detroit Lions

• Current Spread: 49ers -6.5 (-115; DraftKings)
• Target Range: 49ers -6.5 or better

If you’re looking to bet this game early, there’s really only one play that should be on your radar: 49ers -6.5. It’s only available at DraftKings (at the time of writing), with the rest of the industry at 49ers -7.0.

Seven is a key number in NFL betting, so the downside of locking in the 49ers at 6.5 is pretty minimal. If this number goes to 6.0 or 5.5 — which would surprise me — we’re really not losing a ton of value. However, if this number settles at 7.0 across the industry, having 6.5 in our pocket is excellent.

There are plenty of on-field reasons to support the 49ers as well.

San Francisco didn’t look their best on Saturday, struggling to get past a Packers’ squad that was surging at the right time. That said, they survived, and this matchup vs. Detroit sets up pretty well for them.

Detroit’s defense has been abysmal for most of the season. Since Week 7 — when the team was thrashed on the road in Baltimore — the Lions rank just 27th in EPA/play defensively. They’re 30th in dropback EPA against, and things haven’t gotten much better during the playoffs. The Rams racked up 425 yards against them in the Wild Card round, with Matthew Stafford contributing 367 with his arm. The Buccaneers also eclipsed the 400-yard threshold, and the Lions were outgained in both contests.

January 20, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) celebrates with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) after scoring a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

While those teams have good offenses, San Francisco has been the unparalleled top unit in football. They were first in EPA/play by a wide margin, with Brock Purdy leading the league in basically every efficiency metric. With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, the team simply has too many playmakers to stop consistently.

The big X-factor here is Samuel. He exited last week’s game early with an injury, and the offense has not been the same without him this season. However, Samuel reportedly told people after the game that he was “ok” and has a shot to play vs. the Lions.

We’re taking some risk by locking in this number early, but losing Deebo wouldn’t completely derail the 49ers’ offense. They managed to survive without him vs. the Packers, and Green Bay’s defense is better than Detroit’s.

This game will also be played in San Francisco, which is bad news for Jared Goff. Goff has historically thrived indoors — like his home stadium in Detroit — but things haven’t gone nearly as well for him outside. In the cold weather of December and January, he’s just 9-14-1 ATS for his career when playing outdoors. His last outdoor contest was against the Bears in Week 14, and Goff finished with season-worst marks basically across the board (161 yards, 2.6 adjusted yards per attempt). I don’t expect the conditions to be a factor in California, but as last week’s game shows, anything is possible.

Ultimately, Detroit has been “lucky” to survive the first two weeks of the playoffs, and this will be their toughest test by a mile. I’m happy to lock in the 49ers at less than a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Current Spread: -3.0 (-120; DraftKings)
• Target Range: -3.0 (-120) or better, -3.5 (-102) or better

Yes, I’m backing both favorites this week. Sue me. The 49ers and Ravens have been the best two teams in football this season, and it hasn’t been particularly close. The Massey-Peabody Power Ratings have had a gap big enough to drive a truck through between them and the rest of the league, and my personal ratings are the same.

If you like the Chiefs in this matchup, the logic is pretty simple: they have Patrick Mahomes, and the other team doesn’t. I can’t argue against that too much. Mahomes picked up another straight-up win as an underdog on Sunday, pushing his record to 9-1-1 ATS when getting points. He’s a perfect 2-0 in that split during the postseason – with two straight-up wins – and he’ll be getting at least a field goal against the Ravens on Sunday.

Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs the ball to score a touchdown against Houston Texans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (98) and defensive tackle Khalil Davis (94) during the fourth quarter of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

It’s tough to make a case against that, but I’m going to try. As good as Mahomes is, it’s not like Lamar Jackson is a slouch. He’s expected to take home his second MVP award this season, so the gap at QB isn’t nearly as wide for the Chiefs as it is most weeks.

However, the Ravens have a tremendous advantage across the rest of their roster. Their defense is arguably the best in football. They limited the Texans to just 10 points in the Divisional Round, with seven of them coming via special teams. C.J. Stroud led his team to just 213 total yards with zero trips to the red zone after racking up 45 points against the Browns the week prior.

It’s a far cry from the defenses the Chiefs have faced the past two weeks, which were both hampered by injuries. The Ravens are fully healthy and ready to make life a living hell for Mahomes.

On the other side, Kansas City has no shot of stopping the Ravens’ run game. The Bills were able to gouge the Chiefs for 182 yards in the Divisional Round, and the Ravens have the best run game in the NFL. They were first in rushing EPA during the regular season, despite dealing with a rotating cast of characters at running back.

There’s also a chance that the Ravens will get Marlon Humphrey and/or Mark Andrews back for this contest, which is a scary proposition. They’ve been the best team in football without them, and those are two of their better players.

Personally, I can’t justify the Ravens being -3.0 or -3.5 at home vs. the Chiefs when the Bills were -2.5 (-120) in the same spot. The Ravens are conservatively three points better than the Bills on a neutral field, so this number should be on the other side of four.

I locked in -3.0 (-118)  on FanDuel, and I think any reasonably priced -3.0 or -3.5 is worth taking. The sharps have already shown an early interest in Baltimore, so I could see this number getting to four relatively quickly.

You can target the -3.0 available at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

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