NFL Conference Championships Best Bets. Sides, Props, Parlays, and more.
Geoff Ulrich highlights some of the best bets for the NFL Conference Championships.
Welcome to the best bets article for the NFL Conference Championships.
There are only two games on the slate this week, so we’ll be diving deeper than normal into the games and looking for more angles and opportunities across multiple markets. As always, we’ll be using a lot of the FREE tools from Fantasy Life to help guide us, including the weekly projections and utilization report.
I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) for both games, but if you want more make sure you are checking out and bookmarking the FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker, where bets across all the major sports are dropped daily.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
The Chiefs head into this game relatively healthy. G Joe Thuney (chest) is the main name to keep an eye on for the Chiefs. His absence could open things up for the Ravens' pass rush, and the Bills failing to get pressure last week played a huge part in their eventual demise.
On Baltimore’s side of things, it does look like TE Mark Andrews will play. However, they do have concerns in the secondary as Rock Ya-Sin played only two snaps last week and has been limited this week. Marlon Humphrey is reportedly close to returning as well but has yet to practice in full. The absence of both or either could open things up for Mahomes and his beleaguered receiving crew.
Best bet: Chiefs +3.5 (-105, BetMGM)
- Play to: +3.5 (-115)
Let me start off by saying that if I was approaching the futures market today, I would make the Ravens (+180) my favorite bet. Even with that number coming down from +200, the fact that Baltimore has been so dominant against the top NFC teams this year—and are favorites to win this week and advance—just makes the odds extremely appealing. The Ravens as a future play also rated out well in Matthew Freedman’s early Super Bowl projections this week.
However, if we’re approaching this game on its own, the points and Patrick Mahomes is the side I’d lean on here. The Chiefs' offense dominated last week in a way they haven’t done for most of the year. Their RBs gashed the Bills' defense for 7.1 yards per carry as the Chiefs switched to more 12 and 13 man formations—which allowed them to bully the Bills in the middle of the field. This also opened things up for Travis Kelce (5-75-2, 6 targets), who averaged 15 yards per catch against Buffalo and had his most efficient outing of the year by most standards.
Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs with the ball after a catch against the Buffalo Bills in the second half of the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
The Ravens may experience a lot of the same issues as the Bills in this spot. Baltimore was just 22nd in success rate against the run this year and, from Week 12 onward, were just 28th in rush success rate. The Chiefs improved their rushing metrics in the latter half of the season and will have Patrick Mahomes under center, who enters this game 13-3 in playoff games for his career, with just one of those losses coming by more than a TD.
Mahomes is also 5-0 ATS for his career when he and the Chiefs have opened as underdogs of +3.0 points or more.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are coming off a blowout win and playing as the home favorite this week. Per the Action Network, teams that cover in the playoffs by 14 points or more (since 2015) are just 13-23 SU, 14-22 ATS in their next game. Further, Lamar Jackson is also 0-4 ATS for his career in his next start after a win of 20+ points.
Trends aside, the Chiefs have been a work in progress all year but may be finally coming into their stride at the right moment. The Ravens have been at the top of the AFC market for a month now, so if there is any value on either of these teams, it’s likely with the Chiefs being undervalued.
This should be a great game, but in the end, I expect it stays close and the Chiefs (at the very least) cover the +3.5.
You can tail the Chiefs at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!
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Prop bet: Noah Gray over 9.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Projection: 15.0
- Play to: 10.5 (-110)
If you watched the Chiefs' game against the Bills, you saw how big a factor their TEs were in that win. Kansas City used far more 12 and 13 man formations in that game than they had all year which led to higher usage for Gray, who played over 60% of the snaps last week for the first time since Week 5.
Gray not only played more snaps but he was also well above his seasonal averages in route rate (52% vs 43%), targets per route run (TPPR) (23% vs 13%), and target share (14% vs 7%). I’m not trying to make out Gray to be something he’s not (he’s the clear and distant backup to Kelce), but he was getting targets prior to last week (despite playing fewer snaps) and has gone over this prop now in seven of his last 12 games.
Given how well the Ravens defend against deeper, boundary routes, I’d expect the Chiefs to use their TEs more this week once again, much like the Texans tried to do with Dalton Schultz. With Kelce taking primary CB or S coverage on nearly every snap, there should be some solid opportunities for Gray, whose over projects with a strong edge in our aggregate projections.
Gus Edwards anytime TD (+140, BetMGM)
- Play to: +125
Despite Edwards not finding the end zone against the Texans, I have no issue with chasing this bet for one more week. On the face of it, +140 remains a great price. Even with him not finding the end zone last week, the Ravens' lead RB has still scored in three of his last five games and eight of his last 12 games. The +140 odds give us an implied probability of 41%, suggesting that long-term there is likely value in just taking this blindly.
As I also mentioned last week, Edwards led the league in inside the 5-yard line carries in the regular season (I5 carries). Last week, he had an early game attempt from the 3-yard line, which failed, and then fell victim to a couple of brilliant Lamar Jackson TD runs later in the game that came from farther out. Those Jackson runs won’t always end up as TDs (sometimes he’ll come up just short), and it’s worth noting that while Jackson produced a ceiling type of game as a runner against the Texans, he only had five rushes from inside the 5-yard line this year.
Prop bet: Lamar Jackson under 63.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: 62.5
- Projection: 57.5
I’ve leaned on our projections a lot this year and it’s been a pretty successful prop betting season for me as a result (+18.56 units on tracked props, +73.44 units on Underdog pick’em). I’m going to lean on them again here. Both of our projection analysts have this Jackson prop as slightly too high this week, and on the face of it, I agree that the under is appealing enough to bet.
Yes, the Chiefs got bullied last week by Josh Allen (the runner), but even though they are both elite rushing QBs, Jackson’s style of running isn’t as straightforward as Allen’s. Jackson certainly could bust this under in a couple carries with his explosiveness, but in Todd Monken’s offense, his increased passing efficiency has often hurt his rushing production at times.
Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs the ball to score a touchdown against Houston Texans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (98) and defensive tackle Khalil Davis (94) during the fourth quarter of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
For the year, Jackson has been under this massive 63.5 rushing total on 13 (out of 17) occasions. And the Chiefs, for all their faults as a rush defense, haven’t done a terrible job spying elite rushers from the QB position this year (they held both Allen and Justin Fields under 50 yards rushing in Weeks 3 and 14 respectively).
Ultimately, after a monster week on the ground by Jackson against the Texans, this just feels like a great sell high spot on his rushing prop (which is nearly 10 yards higher than it was last week). It’s an under I’m willing to take based on where our projections are at on Jackson this week.
Same Game Parlay: +4000 (BetMGM)
- Chiefs +3.5
- Under 48.5
- Pacheco over 63.5 rush yards
- Noah Gray anytime TD
As mentioned above, I do think the Chiefs will be able to have success once again on the ground. If that happens, not only will we likely see Kansas City cover, but the over on Isiah Pacheco will almost certainly hit as well. Ultimately I really like the way those two bets correlate, and the fact that we have Pacheco sitting with a small edge to the over already in our aggregate projections makes this a nice combo to start with.
After that, we can get a little wild. I mentioned Noah Gray above and also made the case for betting him in the anytime TD market this week. You certainly don’t have to parlay Gray’s TD prop with anything to get a nice payout, but just like Pacheco’s over, a Gray TD has strong correlation with a Chiefs cover.
After that I also chose to include an under on a game total of 48.5. Since the under correlates negatively with the Gray TD, it boosts our odds all the way up to +4000 (if you want more degeneracy, the under at 44.5 came out to +5000). It’s slingshot and we’ll need a score from a backup TE, but this will be a potential fun one to sweat, especially if the Chiefs are down and driving for a backdoor cover late.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
The Lions enter this game relatively healthy. TE Sam La Porta and C Frank Ragnow are fighting though injuries but are expected to play. WR Kalif Raymond may miss another game, as he missed the first practice of the week.
The 49ers' main concern is WR Deebo Samuel, who hurt his shoulder last week against Green Bay. Samuel is improving and he was on the field early this week, but he’s still very questionable for this game.
Best bet: 49ers -7.0 (-120, bet365)
- Play to: Teaser SF -1.5 / Chiefs +10.0 (DraftKings)
I bet the 49ers early in the week in our bet tracker at 6.5 when the lines for this game were first released. It didn’t take long for the line to move to 7.0. As of writing, there are a few sportsbooks that now have a 7.5 line up as well. While I’d rather play the 49ers in a teaser (49ers -1.5/Chiefs +10.0) if this line moves above 7.0 to +7.5, at 7.0 playing the 49ers straight up feels like it still has merit.
The 49ers may have escaped last week by the skin of their teeth, but the Conference Championship has typically been kind to number-one seeds. Per the Monday edition of the Betting Life newsletter, over the past 20 seasons of tracked data, number one seeds have gone 16-11 ATS in the Conference Championships.
The 49ers with Brock Purdy under center have been decent at home as well. They’re 6-4 ATS under Purdy in his 10 career home starts, and with this game being played outdoors, it also hurts the profitability of backing Jared Goff, who is 12-14 ATS outdoors over the past three seasons.
With or without Deebo Samuel, the 49ers are going to be able to attack this weak Lions secondary that has managed to survive games against Tampa Bay and the Rams by the skin of their teeth. This week, though, they face an offense that ranked first in EPA per play this year (by a massive margin) and a QB in Purdy who still ranked first this year in YPA and success rate even when Samuel was off the field.
I don’t expect there is a ton of value at 7.0 points on either side, but given the matchup, I lean on trusting the 49ers vs expecting Detroit’s defense to survive another onslaught.
You can tail the Niners at bet365 and get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
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Prop bet: George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Projection: 65.8
- Play to: 63.5
One reason I like the 49ers in this spot is that while losing Samuel may hurt, they have another unicorn in George Kittle, who can (and has multiple times in the past) pick up the slack for this offense.
On top of just being an incredible athlete and after-the-catch receiver, Kittle’s likely going to be getting a little more primary targeting with Deebo Samuel either out or (at worst) playing through a serious injury. And, over the last couple of seasons, when Samuel HAS been out for the 49ers, it’s often led to Kittle going nuclear.
January 20, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) runs against Green Bay Packers safety Jonathan Owens (34) during the third quarter in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
While he didn’t score this year in Weeks 7 or 8 (when Samuel was out), Kittle caught a combined 14 passes in those games. However, last year when Samuel was out Kittle went nuclear. Over the four games that Samuel missed in 2022, the 30-year-old TE went for over 90 yards twice and caught an incredible 6 TD passes, combined.
You could certainly look to Kittle in the anytime TD market this week, but given that Cade Otton was able to hammer the Lions' secondary last week for multiple big plays (5-65-1), the safer bet is to just play the over on Kittle’s receiving yards.
In a big spot like this, it’s hard to see the veteran coming through with a dud.
Prop bet: Jared Goff over 0.5 interceptions (-140, bet365)
- Play to: -150
This number is quite short, but even at -140 it feels like there is some value in taking Goff to throw an INT this week. First of all, he’s on the road, and outdoors. Over his last four outdoor games, Goff has four INTs, with his only non-INT game coming against the weaker Buccaneers secondary back in Week 6.
Second, the 49ers' pressure is likely to make things a lot tougher on Goff than he’s had it the last two weeks. The 49ers had a higher pressure rate than either Tampa Bay or Los Angeles this season, and San Francisco also ranked 7th in total sacks. The 49ers have also been better at defending the pass down the stretch. They held Jordan Love to just 5.7 yards per attempt and picked him off twice. Entering this week, they have now created at least one INT in five of their last six games and are now tied for the league lead with the Bears for most INTs.
I also expect that, unlike the last two weeks, we’ll see Goff forced into more pass-only situations late in the game, simply due to the efficiency of the 49ers' offense. That’s generally been a bad spot for the Lions and Goff. In Detroit’s five losses this year, Goff threw an INT in all but one of those starts, and he has thrown a total of six INTs in losses this season.
With how efficient this 49ers' secondary has been at grabbing picks, there is still likely some value in taking Goff for a passing turnover this week.
Same Game Parlay: +800 (DraftKings)
- Brock Purdy 300+ passing yards
- George Kittle 90+ receiving yards
- George Kittle anytime TD
Targeting this Lions secondary last week worked wonders. We were able to hit on a +1400 same game parlay with Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans both hitting on their alternate lines (300+ and 100+). This week, I’m taking a very similar approach.
With Deebo Samuel banged up, I think the stage is set for George Kittle to be a star in this game. The 49ers' TE has scored six times in the last six games when Samuel has been out, and over the last five games that Samuel has missed, Kittle has averaged 92.6 receiving yards. While Samuel may still suit up for this game, how many actual snaps he’ll play even if he is active is up for debate—so Kittle is still likely to play a vital role regardless of how the injury news breaks.
The Lions also have smaller corners, so even if they chose to defend Kittle with more athletic players, he’ll have a huge height advantage.
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