In today's Betting Life Newsletter:

The big talk in the betting streets right now is The Masters. That’s pretty understandable. It’s one of the biggest sporting events of the year, and it’s jam-packed with storylines. Will Rory McIlroy capture the one major that has eluded him and complete the career Grand Slam? Can Ludvig Aberg cement his status as the next great golfer? Can Collin Morikawa grab his first major since 2021?

Green Jackets Before Green Bay Draft

For any of that to happen, they’re going to have to get past the PGA TOUR’s big bad wolf: Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler has dominated the sport like no one since Tiger Woods, and he’ll be searching for his third green jacket in the past four years. Not even Tiger himself has pulled off that feat, with Jack Nicklaus the only golfer to win three times in a four-year stretch.

While I’m certainly going to have some action on The Masters, I am far from a PGA TOUR betting expert. My experience with golf is waking up early on the weekend and trying to break 90 at the local muni, not handicapping the best players on the planet. Instead, I’m going to leave that to George Savaricas, who did an excellent job breaking down the event on Wednesday.

I’m going to focus instead on another big upcoming event: the NFL Draft. The start of the festivities is just two short weeks away, so we’re running out of time to find ways to take advantage in the betting market.

We’ve spent plenty of time diving into the first few picks, and we’re starting to get a bit of clarity there. Cam Ward seems pretty locked into the No. 1 spot, and despite the Browns being in desperate need of a quarterback, they seem pretty committed to taking either Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter at No. 2. The Giants will take whomever is left over between Hunter and Carter at No. 3, leaving the Patriots as the first real wild card of the draft.

Instead of focusing on the top three, let’s dive into a few different markets currently available for bettors: draft position over/unders and the first player to be selected at each position.

Travis Hunter MULTIVERSE

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What’s going on around the NFL and more with our merry band of sports nerds!

🏈 Which players are bringing the pain at linebacker? Thor Nystrom breaks down the top options in the 2025 draft class.

📊 The only thing better than a one-round mock is a two-round mock. The latest from Thor.

️⛳️ ICYMI: A special Wednesday Betting Life Newsletter from George Savaricas breaking down The Masters.

👀️ Is Harold Fannin being overlooked at tight end? Dwain McFarland makes the case.

✏️ Sharpen your pencils. Dwain and Ian break down what to expect from the 2025 rookie class at tight end.

🏀 Another coach is out the door in the NBA. First Taylor Jenkins for the Grizzlies, now Mike Malone gets the axe in Denver.

🔮 How many QBs will go in the first round of the NFL Draft?

⬆️⬇️ NFL Draft Position Over/Unders 

Betting on the draft is more of an art than a science. You need to be hyper-alert to all of the news and be able to read the tea leaves. A lot of misinformation flies around in the lead-up to the draft, but if you can see through it, betting the draft can be an extremely profitable endeavor. There’s a reason why Matthew Freedman is up more than 100 units betting on the draft over the past six years, despite Michael Penix Jr. nearly breaking his brain last season.

There are a few players who currently stand out as mispriced to me. Remember, when it comes to betting draft prop over/unders, under means a player will be selected before a certain pick. So, if a player has a draft position over/under of 5.5, he would need to come off the board in the first five picks in order for the under to hit.

Ashton Jeanty Under 9.5 (-250; Caesars)

This under is juiced up pretty substantially, but it’s just hard to imagine a scenario where Ashton Jeanty falls outside of the top nine picks. The current rumor is that the Raiders are going to take him at No. 6, giving Pete Carroll the type of workhorse back that he truly craves.

There has been plenty of information to read into here. GM John Spytek had some interesting quotes about Jeanty on Sirius XM:

He was also the only GM to attend Jeanty’s pro day, and the two reportedly had lunch before Jeanty took the field. They’ve also hosted Jeanty for an official visit.

Currently, 62% of mock drafts in the NFL Mock Draft Database have Jeanty going sixth overall to the Raiders. That includes the most recent drafts from Matthew Freedman and Thor Nystrom.

Personally, the only way I see Jeanty not being the Raiders pick at No. 6 is if someone trades up to get him before then. The Cowboys and Bears have both been linked to Jeanty, and if they really want him, they could move up to No. 4 or 5 to leapfrog the Raiders. -250 correlates to a 71.43% implied probability, and I think the true odds of Jeanty going in the top 9.5 are at least 80%.

Colston Loveland Under 19.5 (-175; DraftKings)

This is a really strong draft class at tight end, with two potential impact players leading the way. Tyler Warren is generally considered the top prospect at the position, and I think there’s a good chance he ultimately ends up in the top 10. Thor has the 49ers trading up for him at No. 5 in his most recent mock draft, and the Bears feel like a reasonable floor for him at No. 10. He’s been the most-mocked player to the Bears at that spot across the industry.

Loveland shouldn’t stick around for too much longer. He’s arguably the better prospect, and he grades out that way in Dwain McFarland’s TE Super Model.

Personally, I think No. 14 for the Colts makes a ton of sense. Indy has a plethora of options at the position, but none of them are any good. GM Chris Ballard is reportedly in the market for a game-changer at tight end, so this feels like a very logical pairing.

Tetairoa McMillan Over 17.5 (+130; Caesars)

This is where I deviate from my Fantasy Life brethren. Based off Thor and Freedman’s mocks, Under 17.5 looks like a value with McMillan. Freedman has him going No. 12 to the Cowboys, while Thor has the Cowboys trading up to No. 10 to select him.

While that’s definitely within his range of outcomes, what happens if the Cowboys go in a different direction? After pick 12, the following teams are expected to hit the podium: the Dolphins, Colts, Falcons, Cardinals, and Bengals. None of those teams should be in the market for a receiver.

Someone could always trade up for McMillan, but his status as a top-flight receiver prospect is very much in question. The film guys don’t appear to love him—he has the third-best film grade at the position on NFL.com—and it wouldn’t shock me if he’s not the first receiver selected (more on that later). In other words, this is not a guy like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, or Malik Nabers. The only thing propelling his draft status is the fact that this is a really weak group of receivers.

While McMillan’s most common mock draft landing spot is No. 12 to the Cowboys, I think that is his best-case scenario. He has been overhyped as a prospect, and I don’t think most GMs view him the same way the fantasy community does. I’m willing to take my chances on Over 17.5 at better than even money.

THOR NYSTROM’S TWO-ROUND MOCK DRAFT

📈 First Player Draft at Each Position

This is another market where we can attack the draft. While some positions are slam-dunks—Jeanty at RB, Ward at QB, etc—there are other positions where there’s a bit more ambiguity. It can give us a bit more upside than selecting draft position over/unders in some instances.

Two players stand out to me as undervalued currently:

Will Campbell First OL Drafted (-160; FanDuel)

The only reason this is even a question is because of Campbell’s arm length. That was one of the big takeaways from the NFL Scouting Combine. He checked in below the preferred minimum of 34 inches that most teams look for in a left tackle, which has forced some to wonder if he might not be better suited at guard in the NFL.

However, that’s really the only knock against him. He still grades out as the best athlete at the position in his current draft class per RAS:

If the top 3 picks in the draft go as expected—Ward at No. 1, Hunter and Carter at 2 and 3—it will leave the Patriots in a very interesting position at No. 4. Most people believe the team will look to upgrade the offensive line for Drake Maye, but will they go with Campbell or someone like Armand Membou?

Personally, Campbell feels like the much safer option. The fact that the Patriots already have some familiarity with him is definitely a plus: Doug Marrone recruited him while at Alabama in 2021. Mike Vrabel also had no problem drafting another short-armed tackle in Peter Skoronski with the Titans in 2023.

I believe he’ll be the pick at No. 4, so -160 feels like a very reasonable price for him to be the first tackle off the board.

Matthew Golden First WR Drafted (+170; FanDuel)

This goes hand-in-hand with my McMillan fade. There is a steady drumbeat out there that Golden is actually the best receiver in this draft. He possesses blazing speed—running a 4.29 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. And while his college production left a lot to be desired, NFL front offices have fallen for speedy wide receivers for years. There’s a long track record of burners coming off the draft board earlier than expected, and in a class lacking a true stud at the position, it should shock no one if he’s the first player selected at the position.

Todd McShay has been beating the drum on Golden for weeks now, even comparing him to Tyreek Hill. 

Would it shock you if Jerry Jones decided he wanted Tyreek 2.0 opposite CeeDee Lamb in Dallas instead of the plodding McMillan? Personally, I’m willing to roll the dice on him being the first receiver off the board at +190.

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