NFL Futures Bets: Geno Smith Over and Other Odds Outliers
Matthew Freedman uncovers three NFL futures bets that are outliers and could be good wagers in the upcoming 2024 season.
As a bettor, I'm usually at my best when I leverage projections (for instance, my 2024 NFL player projections).
Projections, as imperfect as they are, still help me ground my analysis with a data-informed approach. Usually comparing projections to the market to find exploitable opportunities works out better than shooting from the hip at random lines that look off.
But sometimes I'll come across a number that simply strikes me as bad, regardless of whatever my projection says or whether I have a projection at all.
Here are a few bets (all logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker) that I've made primarily because the lines feel wrong. That's not to say I don't have numerical support for these bets — but they first caught my eye not because of my projections but because they straightforwardly seemed off.
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Gardner Minshew Under 18.5 Passing TDs
- Odds: -135 (DraftKings)
- Projection: 14.7
Think about everything that went right for Gardner Minshew with the Colts last year, when he made his first Pro Bowl.
Starting QB Anthony Richardson missed most of two games and all of 13 others because of a concussion and then season-ending shoulder injury. Without that, Minshew wouldn't have been able to make 13 starts and 16 appearances.
Additionally, Minshew was blessed to play for offensive HC Shane Steichen, who would've been a strong candidate to win Coach of the Year if the Colts had beaten the Texans in Week 18 (in a game in which Minshew completed just 54.2% of his passes, managed just 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt, and threw no TDs).
If Minshew had been with another team last year—if his circumstances had been even a little bit different—he almost certainly would not have had the good fortune to sign a two-year, $25M contract with $15M guaranteed this offseason.
And even with all that, he still had just 15 TDs passing last year … and now his circumstances are notably worse with the Raiders.
He's the Week 1 starter, but he has minimal job security given that second-year QB Aidan O'Connell is a favorite of defensive HC Antonio Pierce because of the yeoman's work he did last year as the starter in the second half. I am strongly skeptical that Minshew will be able to retain the starting job for the entirety of the campaign.
Additionally, OC Luke Getsy lacks Steichen's record of success. To put it charitably, his 2022-23 Bears offenses underwhelmed, ranking bottom-six in passing yardage (32, 27) in two seasons. Granted, they were top-two in rushing yardage (1, 2)—but that doesn't exactly help Minshew's case, and they were never higher than No. 18 in scoring. The Raiders could have a relatively low-scoring and run-leaning offensive attack this year.
And when they do score, they might do so on the ground at an elevated rate. Last year, the Bears under Getsy had just 19 passing TDs to 16 rushing, and QB Justin Fields had only 16 passing TDs in 13 games. The year prior, the Bears had 19 passing TDs to 18 rushing, and Fields had 17 in 15 games.
Even if the Raiders’ offense is average, there's a good chance that Minshew will not get enough aerial opportunities in the red zone to hit his season-long total because Getsy instead will opt for RB carries.
You put all that together, and it means that Minshew's line of 18.5 TDs passing doesn't feel anywhere close to reasonable.
Geno Smith Over 3,425.5 Passing Yards
- Odds: -112 (FanDuel)
- Projection: 3,631.1
If I'm bullish on a player's season-long prop market, then ideally I'd like to leverage that enthusiasm in markets that offer bigger payouts, such as MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, or most passing yards or TDs.
And I will say that those markets for Smith did catch my eye.
- Smith to Win MVP: +15000 (ESPN Bet)
- Smith to Win OPOY: +30000 (FanDuel)
- Smith to Lead NFL in Passing Yards: +5000 (Caesars)
- Smith to Lead NFL in Passing TDs: +6000 (SugarHouse)
But ultimately I don't see a real path for Smith to cash in any of those markets—so I'll stick with his season-long prop, where I think his line of 3,425.5 passing yards just seems blatantly wrong.
Let's start with Smith's history. In his first year as the Seahawks’ starter (2022), he passed for 4,282 yards in 17 games while leading the league with a 69.8% completion rate and winning Comeback Player of the Year. And then in 2023, despite missing two games with injury, he passed for 3,624 yards while making his second consecutive Pro Bowl.
As long as Smith doesn't miss more than a couple games, he should easily be able to surpass this line.
And what would cause him to miss more than two games? Either injury or benching. Injuries are hard to predict, and Smith hasn't been an injury-prone player throughout his career. And I doubt that Smith, who is in the middle season of a three-year $75M deal, will lose his starting job to Sam Howell, who underwhelmed in 17 games last season with the Commanders (4-13 record, NFL-high 65 sacks, 5.6 adjusted yards per attempt).
There's some uncertainty with Smith's projection simply because the team has a new coaching staff—but it's possible (maybe even likely) that new HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb will be better for Smith than the previous combination of HC Pete Carroll and OC Shane Waldron, given that Macdonald is younger and might want a more aggressive offense and Grubb coordinated one of the best passing attacks last year in the FBS at Washington.
Finally, Smith has one of the league's best WR trios in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
With his surrounding talent and overall situation, Smith should be able to crush his passing yardage prop.
Cardinals No. 1 Seed in NFC
Odds: +10000 (Caesars)
Cutoff: +5000
I highlight this bet in my bold betting predictions piece, so I won't give the full analysis here, but the quick version is this.
- If the Cardinals get the No. 1 seed, there's maybe a 50% chance that QB Kyler Murray will win MVP, where he's +5000.
- This line at Caesars is an outlier. At most sportsbooks it's +4000, and at DraftKings it's as low as +3500.
Conclusion: Cardinals to be the No. 1 seed at 100-1 odds is just flat-out wrong based on what else is available in the market.
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