As I mentioned last week, preseason betting is a little bit like navigating a minefield. With that in mind, I managed to start 0-3 on my preseason betting journey. Luckily the added plays on Saturday and Sunday both hit so a 2-3 week made it far less painful than it could have been.

Week 3 will be an interesting mix of games as some teams will be using this last week as a legit dress rehearsal, while others will be giving their starters the day off entirely – and going with a third-string lineup across the board.

I’ll still be relying on the extensive preseason coaching records to help guide us but also understand that this week is more situational and more about staying in tune with the news around the league and the shifts in odds.

Just like last week, I listed my favorite early games to target for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL preseason below. However, given how preseason news tends to flow more freely as we get closer to game time I’ll also be adding more bets as the week rolls around, including a full update on Friday for the two games on Sunday.

Let’s dive in and get our final week preseason bets on.

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Chiefs vs Bears Over 32.0 (-110; bet365)

In case you’ve been living under a rock (or are just a normal human being with a life who doesn’t watch every second of preseason football) unders are killing it so far in 2024. Thus far, if you’d have bet the under on all 33 games to date, you’d have gone 26-7 on your bets.

So, naturally, I’ll be taking an over as my first play. The thing is, trends exist until they don’t, and this number (in reaction to all of these unders hitting) has already moved from as high as 36.0 at places down to 32.0 on bet365 and some other books.

The starters won’t be making an appearance on either side, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the defenses (who will also be resting starters) will have the advantage. The Chiefs' defense has been uninterested in stopping opposing offenses all preseason, allowing 25 points per game in two losing efforts.

Additionally, it’s likely the Bears give us another look at Tyson Bagent this week, who should start the game and may even play the majority of the first half. Bagent went 7-8 with two passing TDs against the third-stringers of the Bengals and is unlikely to meet much stiffer competition on defense this time around. Brett Rypien hasn’t been terrible this season either so the drop-off when Bagent leaves isn’t likely to be huge. 

Chiefs third-stringer Chris Oladokun (6-7, 99 yards and a TD last week) also looks like a decent player, and with the Bears likely to take it a little easier on defense he should be able to move the ball effectively once again.

All-in-all, I like betting against the under-hype in this spot. We get two sets of decent QBs who should be looking to move the ball all game and will likely land enough points to allow this game to sail over the skinny total. 

Friday Preseason Bets

Dolphins MoneyLine (+136; DraftKings)

The Dolphins host the Buccaneers, who are expected to get their starters on the field for at least a small portion of this final preseason game. Todd Bowles has already stated that he’s more interested in his first team developing “continuity” than the actual result of the game, so I doubt it’s a situation where we’ll see Baker Mayfield and company out there for very long.

Miami seems likely to rest their starters after the first-team offense took the field in Week 2 but they do have a deep core they can rely on. Both Skylar Thompson and Mike White have extensive NFL experience and should navigate the entire game for the Dolphins. As we saw last week, the Buccaneers aren’t interested in results as they let Mac Jones pick apart their secondary late in a 20-7 loss to the Jags; and considering how hollow the Bengals have played this preseason, their 17-14, Week 1 win means very little as well.

Ultimately, I just like betting against Todd Bowles this time of year (or any time of year), as he’s now 10-14 straight up as a head coach in preseason and will be taking on counterpart Mike McDaniel, who is now 5-3 straight up in preseason.

The Bucs may start strong, but the Dolphins have the depth chart edge. All-in-all, I’m happy to take Miami as true underdogs at +135 or better in this spot as I don’t think the Bucs starters will do enough to stop the Dolphins from prevailing.

Parlay: Jaguars Moneyline / 49ers Moneyline (-118; DraftKings)

The Jaguars sit at -310 on the moneyline to win their game against the Falcons on Friday and even that short of a line may not be short enough.

Jacksonville is looking at Week 3 as a “dress rehearsal” for their starters and may even play them the entire first half. That would provide a pretty huge advantage given that the Falcons won’t just be resting their starting QB and offense, but also won’t be allowing backup Michael Penix to take the field either.

Head Coach Raheem Morris is already 0-2 this preseason and now sits at 5-9 straight up for the preseason over his career. It’s safe to say at this point that Morris doesn’t see the value in having his best players go all out in meaningless football, which is fine, but something we should be wary of as bettors.

Betting the Jaguars straight up at the current number is likely a good long-term play, but if you’re looking to take advantage of this spot and want to risk fewer units, (for a better payout) adding in a little risk with the 49ers' moneyline doesn’t seem like a bad option. Antonio Pierce is taking the preseason as about as casual as Morris and has already lost the first two games of the season. This week, the Raiders look set to bench their top two quarterbacks and start Nathan Peterman, the man who once threw five INTs in a single half of football.

The 49ers will counter with Joshua Dobbs, who has been making highlight-reel plays this preseason and rushed a TD in his last start. He is also facing serious competition from Brandon Allen for the backup job and that duel should help keep the 49ers offense competitive late into this game.

Based on some early week comments from Kyle Shanahan, it’s also highly likely that we see Brock Purdy and some starters play for a series or two to begin the game as well, giving the 49ers another solid edge to exploit.

Much like the Jaguars, the 49ers look to be in a great spot and with their depth advantage might not be short enough in the odds. Combining these two Friday favorites gets us to a nice -118 on DraftKings (as of writing) which looks solid enough to combine for a single play on the last preseason slate.

Saturday

Seahawks +1.5 (-110; FanDuel)

I’m a little surprised that this line hasn’t moved towards the Seahawks yet. Seattle has already made it known that they will be giving their first teamers a solid go in this game, and treating it like a dress rehearsal of such. 

"The plan is you'll see a lot of starters to start the game," Macdonald said. "How many reps and all that it kind of on a per-person type basis. But the plan is to see a good amount of the guys.”

Mike McDonald has a plan and it involves giving his starters some run. After Geno Smith leaves we’ll also get a look at Sam Howell and P.J. Walker who are in a competition of sorts for the backup job and are a decent QB duo to back. 

Meanwhile, Kevin Stefanski has been non-committal about playing his starters and some injury news may affect that decision. Deshaun Watson, David Njoku, and Amari Cooper have all been a little banged up of late and missed some practice time over the last week. Watson is dealing with arm soreness and, right now, I’d lean on Stefanski resting him over playing him. And even if Watson does play, I’m not sure you could count on seeing him for more than a series or two. 

I’m happy to take Seattle in a pick’em spot at home, to begin with, but if we do get lucky and the Browns starters sit, this line will likely move heavily toward Seattle and provide us with some good closing line value as well. 

Broncos vs. Cardinals Over 35.0

As mentioned above, with all of the unders hitting over the first two weeks, we have seen a lot of smaller totals pop up in Week 3 as a result of bettors trying to jump on this trend. As of writing, there is only one game in Week 3 with a total bigger than 37 (Tampa Bay vs Miami).

The Broncos are a team that has shown good consistency on offense in both preseason games and I’d expect that trend to flow into Game 3 when they take on the Cardinals. No word has been given on the QB rotation for Denver, who recently named Bo Nix their starter. However, even if we only see a little of Nix, Denver will still feature Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham, who have decent NFL experience – and should get lots of run against Cardinals backups. Denver has averaged 30.5 points in their first two preseason games and has been able to score points regardless of who has been under center.

On the flip side, Clayton Tune is expected to start for Arizona and he’s been decent enough. Tune has gone 23 of 34 for 242 yards and a touchdown in his first two games with the Cardinals having scored 24 points with Tune on the field thus far. He also had a great preseason in 2023 and should at least keep this game competitive for the Cardinals to start.

35.0 may seem high given how low-scoring the games have been this year but it’s not really giving Denver the proper respect, who I also like if you can get them at -3.5 or better on the spread. I expect a Denver win with enough points from both sides to push this over the number.

With the NFL season nearing, I’ll once again be putting bets in our FREE NFL bet tracker (+20.79u, 2023-24) and Pick’em Tracker (+65.44u, 2023-24). We already have plenty of futures bets up to consider for the new season.