NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Line Movement For The Conference Championships.
Matt LaMarca dives into both NFL Conference Championship games to identify where sharp money is affecting line movement and advises bettors on how to adjust.
There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.
One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.
You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.
For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.
The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.
Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid's homework before the start of class.
Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.
The sharps took one on the chin in the Divisional Round, going 0-4 on the plays posted in this article. Still, our record stands at 55-41-3 for the year, good for a win rate of greater than 57%. We've already locked in a profitable season, but with just three games left, let's look to finish the year on a high note.
Let's dive into what the pros are seeing for the Conference Championships.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Opening Total: 45.0
- Target Range: Under 44.5 or better
There hasn't been much sharp action to speak of on the side in this contest. However, the line movement suggests that the pros like the Ravens. They were available at -3.0 when this contest was first posted, but it's gotten as high as -4.0 at some locations. The Ravens have also logged 66% of the dollars on 50% of the bets (per the Action Network), so most of the big-money wagers have sided with Baltimore.
Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) celebrates with quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) after catching a pass for a touchdown against the Houston Texans during the fourth quarter of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
That makes sense to me. I highlighted the Ravens in my Early Lines article, and my stance hasn't changed. They have clear advantages on both sides of the ball, and they're only getting healthier with Mark Andrews and Marlon Humphrey expected to return to action.
The most recent version of the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings has the Ravens as six points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field, so getting them -3.5 or better in Baltimore stands out as an excellent value.
Still, the pros are seeing more value with the total.
The Chiefs' offense has shown increased signs of life during the postseason, but their performances vs. the Dolphins and Bills come with serious asterisks. Miami was missing their top five sack leaders from the regular season, while the Bills were down multiple contributors in their back seven. Patrick Mahomes is still the best player in football, so you're not going to fare well against him at less than full strength.
That's not going to be an issue for the Ravens. Not only are they fully healthy, they're arguably the best defense in football. They finished the year second in EPA/play defensively, and they're coming off a masterclass vs. the Texans in the Divisional Round. They held C.J. Stroud and company completely out of the redzone, and Houston's only touchdown came on special teams. Expect some significant regression for Kansas City in this matchup.
The Chiefs have also been one of the best under squads in football this season. They're 6-13 to the under this season, with their games going under by an average of -6.4 points per game. That's the top mark in the league by a wide margin, with the Patriots finishing second at -4.0.
When the Ravens have the ball, expect them to lean on their dominant ground game. They were first in rushing EPA during the regular season, despite dealing with numerous injuries in the backfield. The Chiefs' defense has improved this year, but they're still vulnerable against the run.
Add in the long-term profitability of postseason unders – and the fact that 44.0 is a key number – and grabbing the under at 44.5 is a strong option. If the Ravens can control the clock on offense and limit the Chiefs on defense, points should be at a premium.
You can tail the under at BetMGM, where you can sign up below with promo code FANTASYLIFE to get $158 in bonus bets!
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Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Over 51.5 (-110; FanDuel)
- Opening Total: 50.5
- Target Range: Over 51.5 or better
This is another game where the pros see more value with the total than a side.
If you are looking to back one of these squads, the 49ers seem like the preferred target. They opened as 6.5-point favorites but are up to 7.5 at some locations. They struggled in their Divisional Round win over the Packers, but there's no denying how dominant they've been overall. They're still the No. 2 team in Massey-Peabody, checking in nearly eight points higher than the Lions.
I was fortunate enough to grab the Niners at -6.5 when this number first came out – which you can find in the NFL Bet Tracker – but I'd still be willing to play them at -7.0 or better. However, grabbing the over on 51.5 might be your best bet if you're still looking to get in on this game.
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates scoring a touchdown in the third quarter with fullback Kyle Juszczyk (44) and offensive tackle Colton McKivitz (68) against the Green Bay Packers during their NFC divisional playoff football game.
The over has snagged 64% of the bets and 67% of the dollars in this matchup, and it's even moved to 52.0 at some locations. The over does go against the outdoor postseason trend, but the weather in San Francisco is expected to be pristine: 70 degrees Fahrenheit with no precipitation and almost no wind to speak of. Don't expect to see any frozen mustaches or permanently red cheeks.
That means the offenses should be free to operate at peak efficiency, which spells trouble for the defenses. The 49ers have been the best offensive team in football this season, ranking first in EPA/play by a comfortable margin. Brock Purdy led the league in virtually every quarterback efficiency metric, while Christian McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards. Even if Deebo Samuel can't go – and his status looks a lot more optimistic after returning to practice – this team has too many playmakers to slow down.
The 49ers should feast on the Lions' secondary, which has been one of the worst in football this season. From Week 7 on, the Lions were 30th in dropback EPA against. They allowed huge performances to Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield in the first two rounds, so their chances of stopping Purdy seem almost nonexistent.
On the other side, the once-dominant 49ers' defense hasn't been nearly as impressive this season. They're still an above-average unit, but they're 10th in EPA/play. They're not going to completely shut down this Lions' offense, which is eighth in EPA/play for the year.
Ultimately, I expect the 49ers to do most of the scoring and face the Ravens in the Super Bowl. If they can get their usual 30+ points, the Lions' offense should be able to get us the rest of the way there.
You can tail the over on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
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