NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Line Movement For the Divisional Round.
Matt LaMarca highlights where sharp money is affecting the betting lines for the NFL Divisional Round and advises bettors on how to approach each game.
There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.
One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.
You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.
For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.
The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.
Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid's homework before the start of class.
Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.
It was another fantastic week for the sharps to start the postseason. They went 4-1, with the only loss being the under on the game in Buffalo. After that game was moved to Monday, that became a much less appealing wager. Still, it pushes our record to 55-37-3 for the year, good for a win rate just shy of 60%. Let’s finish strong!
Let's dive into how the pros are approaching each game in the Divisional Round.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Under 43.5 (-108; DraftKings)
- Opening Total: 46.0
- Target Range: Under 43.5 or better
We’ve made it to the second round of the postseason, historically one of the best football weekends of the year. The two No. 1 seeds join the six winners from last week, setting up some terrific matchups across the board.
However, playoff football also brings playoff weather. It’s January, which means it will be cold at basically all of the outdoor stadiums. It also brings the potential elements into play, which we saw last week with wind in Kansas City and snow in Buffalo.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that outdoor playoff unders have been highly profitable. The outdoor games went 2-1 to the under last week, with the lone exception being in Buffalo. If they had played that game when initially scheduled, it’s very possible that the under would’ve swept. Overall, outdoor postseason unders are now 100-76-4 ATS dating back to 2003.
The current forecast in Baltimore doesn’t look nearly as bad as it did in Kansas City or Buffalo last week, with one major exception. It’s expected to be pretty windy, with sustained winds of 15+ miles per hour and gusts near 30.
It will also be cold – around 25 degrees Fahrenheit – and outdoor postseason unders in games with sub-freezing temperatures and greater than 10 mile-per-hour winds have gone 16-6-1 since 2003.
Add in the fact that the Ravens are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, and this game smells like an under. The pros have already taken this number down from 46.0 to 43.5, and it’s even at 43.0 in some locations. 43 is a key number in total betting, so locking this under in at 43.5 is the best way to attack this game.
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San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (-110; Caesars)
- Opening Line: 49ers -10.0
- Target Range: 49ers -9.5 or better
The Packers are for real. Their offense has been phenomenal since Week 9, when Jordan Love fully blossomed into one of the best quarterbacks in football. After last week’s demolition of the Cowboys, this team is second in EPA/play since Week 9, and Love is playing as well as anyone.
Jan 14, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) drops back to pass against the Dallas Cowboys in the first half of the 2024 NFC wild card game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
It’s tempting to say that this is too many points for Green Bay. After all, they were seven-point underdogs against the Cowboys in Dallas, and they ended up winning outright by 16 points. They were never in jeopardy of losing, and the Cowboys vaunted defense had no answers. The 49ers’ defense is similar to the Cowboys in many ways, so it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Packers score enough points to keep this close.
Personally, I expect the Packers to get their points in this matchup. However, don’t be surprised if San Francisco embarrasses their defense.
The 49ers have been the top-ranked offense in the league per EPA/play, and it hasn’t been particularly close. When Deebo Samuel has been fully healthy and available, this team averaged more than 32 points per game. They’ve scored at least 30 points nine times. Green Bay’s defense still allowed the Cowboys to rack up 510 total yards and 32 points last week, so San Francisco could have a field day in this matchup.
The sharps appear confident enough in the 49ers’ defense to lay the 9.5 points with the home favorites. I lean towards the over in this matchup, but if the 49ers play to the best of their ability, no one in the NFC can keep things remotely close. As long as the spread is under 10, playing the 49ers seems acceptable.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Detroit Lions (-102; DraftKings)
- Opening Line: Buccaneers +7.0
- Target Range: Buccaneers +6.0 or better
The Buccaneers are my favorite spread bet of the week. I’ve already locked in a play at 6.5, and I’d consider adding another unit if this got to 7.0. That said, I don’t think it actually gets there.
That’s because the sharps have shown some interest in the Buccaneers. They managed to squeak into the playoffs in the worst division in football, but they’re better than casual fans might realize. Their offense has been very good when Baker Mayfield has been healthy this season, while their defense is stout against the run.
Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) gestures before the snap against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
We saw both of those strengths pay dividends last week vs. the Eagles. Philly has been slumping for the better part of two months, but Tampa Bay severely outplayed them in the Wild Card round. They limited the Eagles to nine points and 276 yards of total offense, while Mayfield had a monster performance. He had 337 yards and three touchdowns, and it honestly could’ve been an even bigger performance. The team had seven drops in the first half, so Mayfield was even better than his traditional stats suggest.
I don’t see why he can’t do the same vs. the Lions. Their secondary has been very suspect over the second half of the year, and they were shredded by Matthew Stafford in the Wild Card round. Stafford had 367 passing yards, and the Rams outgained the Lions by nearly 100 yards. If not for some poor red zone efficiency from Los Angeles, they would likely be playing this weekend instead of Detroit.
Ultimately, the Lions are the most overvalued team in the market. The Massey-Peabody Power Ratings have them as less than a full point better than the Buccaneers on a neutral field, so getting the Bucs at nearly a full touchdown is a massive value. I’m all in.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Under 45.5 (-110; FanDuel)
- Opening Total: 46.0
- Target Range: Under 44.5 or better
This is another bet I’ve already logged in the NFL Bet Tracker. The last time these two teams met in the postseason, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen put on an absolute show. They lit up the scoreboard for 78 total points, with the Chiefs securing a six-point overtime victory after winning the coin toss and scoring on the first possession.
NFL fans will be hoping for a repeat of that performance, but expectations should be tempered. These aren’t nearly the same squads that met in Kansas City two years ago.
The Chiefs’ offense has been down for most of the year, ranking just 11th in EPA/play. They led the league in yards and points per game last season, but they’re just ninth and 15th in those areas this year.
Meanwhile, the Bills offense has shifted in philosophy under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. He’s abandoned the team’s pass-heavy approach, focusing instead on James Cook and Allen in the run game. They’ve had a negative Dropback Over Expectation in five straight games, and they’ve been at -9% or lower in three. The team is 5-0 in those contests, so it’s hard to say it isn’t working.
These squads have met twice in the regular season since that playoff matchup, and both games have gone under the current total. They’re a combined 24-12 to the under this season, so I’m a big fan of the under in this spot. This bet has merit as long as you’re getting it above 44.0.
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