NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 10 Line Movement

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

The sharps had another rough week with sides in Week 9, going 0-3 on the plays in this article. However, they did hit both of their totals, pushing our overall record to 24-19-2 for the year.

Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 10.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+100; Caesars)

Opening Line: Jaguars +1.0
Target Range: Jaguars +3.0 or better

I discussed this game with Matthew Freedman during our early lines show on Monday:

I’ve been low on the Jaguars for most of the season, and they’ve burned me a couple of times. I was on the Saints, Bills, and Steelers vs. the Jaguars and lost all three contests pretty easily.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that I don’t see eye-to-eye with the sharps in this spot. However, Jacksonville is easily one of the biggest sharp sides of the week. They’ve racked up 74% of the dollars on just 41% of the bets (per the Action Network), one of the slate's largest differentials.

The Jaguars have been underrated defensively for most of the season. They’re currently third in EPA/play, and they’ve graded out as above-average against the run and the pass. They haven’t been quite as effective on offense, but they’re still 10th in the league in points per game.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have hit a rough patch of late. They’ve lost three straight games, with Brock Purdy seemingly turning back into a pumpkin. He averaged 10.67 adjusted yards per attempt through his first five contests – easily the best mark in football – but that figure has dipped to 6.78 during the three-game losing streak.

My concern with fading the 49ers is that they should be significantly healthier this week. Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are set to return to the lineup, which should give them a boost.

Still, this article is not about me; it’s about the sharps. The sharps clearly like the Jags in this matchup, and I try to avoid going against them as often as possible.

If you want to side with the pros – which is typically a good idea – the best number is +3.0 (+100) at Caesars.

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Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills (-110; Wynn)

Opening Line: Broncos +6.0
Target Range: Broncos +7.5 or better

What the heck is going on in Buffalo? The Bills entered the year as one of the most talented teams in football, but they have looked like anything but over the past month. They’ve failed to cover in five straight games and lost three of those contests outright.

Josh Allen continues to play at an MVP level – he’s second in the league in EPA + CPOE composite – but the defense has suffered some devastating injuries. Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White were two of the best in the league at their respective positions, and those absences have clearly had an impact.

Nov 5, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) hands the ball off to running back James Cook (4) in the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Meanwhile, the Broncos have played significantly better of late. They’ve won two straight games, including an upset victory vs. the Chiefs in their last outing.

Their defense looked like one of the worst units in football to start the season, but they’ve made some significant strides. They’re 13th in EPA/play defensively since Week 6, despite facing the Chiefs twice in that time span. If they can continue to play at that level, their offense is good enough to keep them in most games.

The Broncos also get a solid rest edge heading into this matchup. The Broncos are coming off the bye, while the Bills played on Sunday Night Football against the Bengals in Cincinnati.

This number has dipped to +7.0 across most of the industry, but you can still find a +7.5 on Wynn. If you can grab the Broncos at more than a touchdown, they’re a solid target in Week 9. Seven is one of football's most important key numbers, so getting the hook is a big deal.

Dallas Cowboys (-17.0) vs. New York Giants (-110; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Cowboys -5.5
Target Range: Cowboys -17.5 or better

I don’t care if you’re a sharp, a square, or somewhere in between: you probably like the Cowboys in this matchup. No one wants to bet on the Giants with Tommy DeVito under center, so this line has risen like a helium balloon. I was able to lock in a play on the Cowboys at -14.5 last Sunday, but this number is all the way up to -17.5 at some locations. Dallas has received 87% of the bets and 95% of the dollars in this matchup, so the sportsbooks have tons of liability in this contest.

Should that deter you from betting on the Cowboys? I don’t think so.

This is a perfect matchup for Dallas. They boast one of the best pass rushes in all of football, and they’re facing easily the worst offensive line in the league. They’ve surrendered 49 sacks through their first nine games, and even with Andrew Thomas back in the lineup last week, they surrendered eight sacks to the Raiders. The Cowboys had seven sacks in their first matchup vs. the Giants this season, and that was with the athletic Daniel Jones at quarterback.

With DeVito at the helm, this could be an absolute disaster.

DeVito was passable in relief of Jones last week, but that was against the Raiders’ porous defense in a game that turned into a blowout. He looked absolutely lost when he played in a competitive contest vs. the Jets the week prior. He managed -0.14 adjusted yards per attempt, completing just two of seven passes for -1 yard.

How in the world is this guy going to survive against the Cowboys?

On the other side, Dallas can put up points in a hurry. They’re third in the league in points per game and even capable of scoring on defense. That combination has led to plenty of blowouts this season, with four of their five wins coming by at least 20 points.

This game should be ugly. I’m not sure at what number the Giants would potentially become interesting targets for the sharps, but I wouldn’t consider them unless I was getting three full touchdowns. The Cowboys are worth playing at anything close to -17.

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons Over 43.0 (-110; BetMGM)

Opening Total: 43.5
Target Range: 43.5 or better

Is this the week that overs come roaring back? It’s no secret that the under has dominated in 2023. After another under on Thursday Night Football, it’s moved to 84-52-1 through nine-plus weeks. Since the start of last year, the under is now a ridiculous 235-171-2.

Ultimately, if a $100 bettor took the under on each of those contests, they’d be up more than $4,300.

However, the sharps are seeing value with a bunch of overs in Week 10, with the Cardinals and Falcons standing out as one of their favorites.

The Cardinals have been one of the few teams with a bias towards overs this season, going 5-4 through their first nine games. That number was 5-3 before last week’s disastrous performance with Clayton Tune at quarterback.

Nov 27, 2022; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray throws against the Los Angeles Chargers at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone-USA TODAY Sports

Now, Kyler Murray will return to action, and he has the potential to transform this team into an over juggernaut. He’s easily the most talented quarterback that the Cardinals have used this season, even if he is a bit rusty in his first game back.

The Falcons’ offense also appears to have a bit more juice after switching to Taylor Hienicke at quarterback. They’ve scored at least 23 points in back-to-back weeks, and both games have reached at least 51 total points.

In years past, this total might have been closer to the 47-48 range. However, with the lack of scoring so far this season, it’s available at a discount. Grabbing the over on 43.5 or better makes a ton of sense.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans Over 47.0 (-108; DraftKings)

Opening Total: 44.5
Target Range: Over 47.0 or better

This is another strong over target for the sharps this week. It’s pretty easy to see why.

The Bengals are on one side, and their offense has made significant strides over the past few weeks. They started the year as one of the worst offensive teams in football, primarily due to Joe Burrow’s calf injury. However, they’ve scored at least 24 points in three of their past four games, and Burrow appeared completely healthy last week following the team’s bye.

When Burrow is at his best, this is still one of the best offenses in football. The Texans just got shredded by the Buccaneers for 37 points, and if they can do that, Cincinnati should be able to follow suit.

On the other side, C.J. Stroud appears to be a superstar. He had a historic performance last week, racking up 470 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions in the Texans’ comeback win. He’s now racked up 2,270 yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interception, which is absurd for a first-year quarterback. He’s second in the league in adjusted yards per attempt, so you could make the case that he’s already one of the best quarterbacks in football.

This number has increased from the opening total of 44.5, but it’s clear that the sportsbooks were not ready for Stroud to be this good this quickly. With both offenses firing on all cylinders, this is another game where there should be plenty of points. I’m happy to play this over at 47.0 or better.

You can tail the over at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place a first bet of $5 or more below!

NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 10 Line Movement

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+100; Caesars)

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Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills (-110; Wynn)

Dallas Cowboys (-17.0) vs. New York Giants (-110; FanDuel)

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons Over 43.0 (-110; BetMGM)

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans Over 47.0 (-108; DraftKings)

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