NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 13 Line Movement

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

The picks in this article went 3-2 last week, going 2-1 on sides and 1-1 on totals. That brings our overall record to 35-23-2 for the year, good for a win rate of more than 60%.

Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 13.

Tennessee Titans (+1.0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-110; BetMGM)

Opening Line: Titans -2.5
Target Range: Titans pick’em or better

The theme of this week’s sharp picks is home underdogs. And if you’re going to focus on home underdogs, you could do a lot worse than starting with Mike Vrabel.

Few are better than the Titans head coach at covering the spread when getting points. He’s 27-20-1 ATS as a dog for his career, including 12-7 as a home dog.

To be fair, getting just one point means the Titans are going to have to win to cover. Still, Vrabel has shown the ability to get the most out of his players in matchups where his team is considered “inferior” on paper.

The Colts have won three straight games but are still far from an elite squad. Their recent wins have come against the Panthers, Patriots, and Buccaneers, which doesn’t move the needle. Overall, they have an expected record of just 5.5-5.5, and they’re in the bottom half of the league in yardage differential.

This also sets up as a solid matchup for the Titans stylistically. The Colts have been far weaker against the run than the pass, ranking just 23rd in rush defense EPA. That should allow the Titans to lean on Derrick Henry and the run game. Henry isn’t the same player he was in his prime, but the team would undoubtedly love to keep the ball in his hands and out of Will Levis’s as much as possible.

The Titans have received a heavy edge in spread bets and dollars this week (per the Action Network), so this line should continue to move in their favor up until kickoff. I’d play them as a pick’em or better.

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New Orleans Saints (+4.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-110; PointsBet)

Opening Line: Saints -1.0
Target Range: Saints +4.0 or better

Trouble is brewing in Detroit. At one point this season, they looked like legit contenders in the loaded NFC. Their offense was putting together another elite season, while their defense seemed vastly improved from last year’s squad. Through the first six weeks, they were seventh in EPA/play on defense and fifth on offense, and the Chiefs and 49ers were the only other squads with a top-seven unit on both sides of the ball.

Nov 23, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) runs onto the field before the game against the Green Bay Packers during the annual Thanksgiving Day game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

However, their defense has plummeted down the ranks since then. In fact, they’ve been the worst team in terms of EPA/play defensively since Week 7. They’ve surrendered at least 26 points in four of their past five games, with the lone exception coming against the lowly Raiders.

On the other side, the Saints have been a wildly disappointing squad this season. They have the talent to compete and still grade out favorably from a metric standpoint. They’re currently 11th in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. They’re 11th in yardage differential. They just haven’t put it all together on the scoreboard.

Their biggest issue has been redzone inefficiency. Only 42.5% of their red zone opportunities have resulted in touchdowns, which ranks merely 28th in the league. Only the Jets, Titans, and Giants have been worse, and they don’t possess nearly the same offensive firepower as New Orleans.

While the public unsurprisingly wants nothing to do with the Saints, the sharps still see a good team. They do not deserve to get more than four points at home against a flawed team like the Lions.

The one thing to monitor is the Saints’ injury report. They may be without Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed at receiver this week, and they’d be a lot less appealing without their top three pass catchers. However, as long as Olave can give it a go – he’s currently in the concussion protocol – the Saints are worth playing at +4.0 or better.

New York Jets (+2.0) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-110; DraftKings)

Opening Line: Jets -6.5
Target Range: Jets +2.0 or better

This is a rare spot where I’m not seeing the same thing as the pros. I highlighted the Falcons as a potential target in my early lines piece, but the sharps are seeing value with the Jets.

That’s not exactly a shocker. The sharps have liked the Jets for most of the year. They have an excellent defense, so they just need some semblance of competency from the offense to hang around in games.

That said, that’s easier said than done.

They couldn’t do it with Zach Wilson at quarterback, so they’re now giving Tim Boyle a shot. The only issue is that Boyle is awful. He’s possibly the worst QB to see meaningful snaps this season, possessing a 7.0% interception rate while averaging 2.3 adjusted yards per attempt for his career. Boyle has 158 career pass attempts as well, so we’re not talking about a small sample size.

Personally, I can’t stomach betting on Boyle, especially since they’re likely going to need a win to cover as just two-point dogs. Still, this article is about the sharps, and the sharps are clearly interested in New York.

Atlanta is coming off a big win last week over the Saints, but they’re still not a very good football team. They have quarterback issues of their own with Desmond Ridder, and they’re merely 25th in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. Those ratings make Atlanta roughly 1.25 points better than the Jets on a neutral field, so you could make a good case they don’t deserve to be two-point road favorites over basically anyone.

If you are going to ride with the pros, I’d suggest seeing if this line swings back in their favor before kickoff. If the Jets get to +2.5 – or maybe even +3.0 – they’d be a lot more appealing as buy-low targets.

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Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots Under 40.5 (-115; FanDuel)

Opening Total: 42.5
Target Range: Under 39.5 or better

This total has already dipped by a few points, but frankly, I’m surprised it’s still this high. It almost makes me think it’s a trap. After all, the sportsbooks are not in the business of handing out free money.

Still, I can’t pass up the opportunity to take the under on a Patriots game with a total above 40.

The Patriots made a bit of history of late, becoming the first team since the 1993 Patriots to allow 10 points or fewer in back-to-back games and lose both. Bill Belichick is known for making history, but that’s not the type of stat he’s typically associated with.

Nov 26, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) throws the ball during the second half against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Patriots’ offensive futility is not just a recent blip, either. They’re 31st in points per game and 25th in yards, and they’ve gone 8-3 to the under this season. Pats games have gone under by an average of -5.3 points per game, which is the second-highest mark in the league.

The Chargers are known for their offense with Justin Herbert under center, but they’re also 8-3 to the under this season. They’ve scored 27 points or fewer in five of their past seven games, and if they don’t score more than that on Sunday, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots picking up the slack.

As long as this number stays above 39, you can comfortably play the under in this spot.

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Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers Over 41.0 (-110; Caesars)

Opening Total: 40.0
Target Range: Over 41.5 or better

It’s no secret that unders have dominated the 2023 season, but overs are starting to make a bit of a comeback. There were more overs than unders in Weeks 10 and 12, and we had a massive over on Thursday Night Football to start Week 13. The books may have finally adjusted the numbers to a point where the under is no longer a license to print money.

The sharps have started to look at some overs in recent weeks, and this game is another one that catches their eye. These squads both have reasons for offensive optimism moving forward.

For the Cardinals, it stems from the return of quarterback Kyler Murray. They were thoroughly dismantled by the Rams last week, but Murray still represents a massive upgrade over Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune.

On the other side, the Steelers’ offense looked like a completely different unit after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. They still managed just 16 points vs. the Bengals last week, but they rolled up 421 yards of total offense. That was their best mark of the season by nearly 90 yards, and it was the first time they outgained their opponent in 2023.

Both of these offenses should be able to find some success in this spot, so the over makes a lot of sense.

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NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 13 Line Movement

Tennessee Titans (+1.0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-110; BetMGM)

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New Orleans Saints (+4.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-110; PointsBet)

New York Jets (+2.0) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-110; DraftKings)

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Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots Under 40.5 (-115; FanDuel)

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Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers Over 41.0 (-110; Caesars)

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