NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 14 Line Movement

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

Week 13 was a down week for us, going just 1-4 on the picks in this article. However, we’re still 36-27-2 for the year, putting us comfortably in the black.

Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 14.

Carolina Panthers (+5.5) at New Orleans Saints (-115; BetMGM)

Opening Line: Panthers +3.5
Target Range: Panthers +4.5 or better

Backing the Panthers this season has been absolutely brutal. They’re just 1-11 straight up, and they fired head coach Frank Reich after less than a full season. Things haven’t been much better from an ATS perspective, with the Panthers covering in just two of their 12 contests. They’ve also failed to cover by an average of 4.8 points per game, tied for the third-worst mark in football.

However, the Panthers have played slightly better of late. They’ve lost three of their past four games by seven points or less, with two coming by a field goal.

Their offense remains one of the worst in football, but they’ll get a bit of a reprieve this week vs. the Saints. New Orleans started the year as an excellent unit on defense, but they have regressed massively over the past few weeks. Since Week 7, they’re merely 23rd in EPA/play defensively.

That’s a big problem since the Saints don’t exactly have an elite offense they can rely on. They have plenty of talent on paper, but they’re 19th in points per game for the year.

The Saints are also really banged up at the moment. Michael Thomas is on IR, while Chris Olave, Rasheed Shahid, and Taysom Hill missed practice on Thursday. Quarterback Derek Carr has also been limited by a multitude of injuries, while Cam Jordan has been hampered by a leg injury for weeks.

Add it all up, and the Panthers provide a bit of value as moderate divisional home underdogs. With zero incentive to tank – the Bears own the Panthers 2024 first-round pick – I’m fine with playing them at anything better than +4.5.

You can tail the Panthers at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win after signing up below!

New York Jets (+3.5) at Houston Texans (-105; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Jets -8.5
Target Range: Jets +3.5 or better

This season has not gone as expected for either of these squads. The Jets were expected to be Super Bowl contenders after Aaron Rodgers took his talents to New York this offseason. However, their season was basically over after he suffered an injury four plays into Week 1.

Meanwhile, the Texans had virtually no expectations under a first-year coach and quarterback, but they’re currently fighting for a Wild Card spot. C.J. Stroud has put together one of the most impressive rookie seasons in the history of the position, while DeMeco Ryans is one of the favorites for Coach of the Year.

Sep 17, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans shakes hands with quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that this line has moved all the way from Jets -8.5 to Texans -3.5.

The Jets have played QB carousel over the past few weeks, going from Zach Wilson to Tim Boyle to Trevor Siemian. However, they’ve landed right back where they started after the Rodgers injury, with Wilson set to make the start vs. the Texans.

Wilson is not a good quarterback, but he still represents an upgrade over Boyle and Siemian. He leads the trio in adjusted yards per attempt and also brings a bit more athleticism to the table. Wilson has also reportedly looked good at practice this week, for whatever that’s worth.

They always say there’s nothing scarier than someone with nothing to lose. That statement couldn’t define Wilson more perfectly at the moment. Expectations are so low for him and the rest of the offense that he can just go out and play football.

The Texans have all the pressure in the world, and this is not a spot that they’ve fared well in this season. They’re just 1-4 ATS as favorites, including 0-1 as road favorites.

With Wilson back at QB, this number has fallen from Jets +6.0 to Jets +3.5. I don’t think I’d take New York if this number got down to 3.0, but with a defense that should give Stroud trouble, getting the Jets at +3.5 makes a lot of sense.

You can tail the Jets at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet of $5 or more wins! Sign up below to start betting today!

Bengals (-2.0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-110; Caesars)

Opening Line: Bengals -9.0
Target Range: Bengals -2.5 or better

It’s Jake Browning season. Browning made his second career start on Monday Night Football vs. the Jaguars, and he took the field in Jacksonville as a double-digit underdog. Not only did he manage to secure a cover for bettors, but he also led the team to an outright victory.

While most backups tend to struggle under the bright lights, Browning has looked more than up for the task. He averaged 7.77 adjusted yards per attempt against the Steelers two weeks ago, and he improved that mark to 10.11 vs. the Jaguars. Those are two above-average defenses, and Browning has more than held his own. In fact, since taking over for Joe Burrow in Week 11, Browning ranks sixth at the position in EPA + CPOE composite.

In other words, he’s not just surviving; he’s thriving.

Can we buy the breakout? He’s probably not going to be that good moving forward, but I think he’s a viable option at the position. He had plenty of reps at Washington in college, and he’s been in the Bengals’ system for multiple years. Browning also has plenty of supporting talent to lean on in Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tee Higgins.

The sharps clearly believe in Browning, at least to an extent. They’ve pushed the Bengals from small home underdogs to small favorites, with 73% of the bets and 75% of the dollars siding with Cincinnati (per the Action Network). As long as the number stays under a field goal, I’m riding with Jake Brrr.

You can tail the Bengals at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is completely on the house when you sign up for your new account below!

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Under 43.5 (-115; FanDuel)

Opening Total: 46.5
Target Range: Under 43.5 or better

The Bears were an overmachine to start the season, going 5-0 to the over in their first five games. In a year where the under has hit at a historic rate, they stood out as a major outlier.

However, their defense has steadily improved since the start of the year. They’re fifth in EPA/play defensively since Week 6, including No. 2 in rush defense EPA.

Chicago Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson breaks up a pass intended for Detroit Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, left, during the first half at Ford Field, Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023.

That could spell some trouble for Detroit. The Lions have run the ball at the ninth-highest frequency this season, and they’ve been far more efficient running the ball than throwing it. Chicago also did a great job of slowing down the Lions’ offense in their first matchup this season before collapsing late in the fourth quarter.

These two squads combined for 57 points in their first matchup, but that scoreline is deceptive. Twenty of those points came in the final five minutes as the Lions desperately played catch up. If this game is a bit more balanced – and the 3.5-point spread suggests it should be – there won’t be as much of a need for the Lions to push the tempo late.

The sharps have seen significant value with the under in this spot, which has racked up 86% of the dollars on just 41% of the bets. 43 is a key number in total betting, so getting this number at 43.5 is very important.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Over 48.5 (-110; BetMGM)

Opening Total: 51.5
Target Range: Over 48.5 or better

The Chiefs haven’t exactly looked like THE CHIEFS recently, but they still have Patrick Mahomes. I don’t care if guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson are catching passes; a Mahomes-led offense can only be so bad. They’re sixth for the season in EPA/play, so they’re not nearly as bad as some of their recent performances suggest.

This is an excellent spot for the Chiefs to see a bit of positive regression. The Bills have had numerous key injuries on the defensive side this season, and they’re a middle-of-the-pack squad in terms of EPA/play.

On the other side, Josh Allen is having a phenomenal season for the Bills. Yes, he does turn the ball over a lot, but he also leads his team on plenty of scoring drives. The Bills are fourth in EPA/play for the year and in the top five in both yards and points per game.

Ultimately, it’s Mahomes vs. Allen – do you really want to bet on an under with these guys? I’m not overthinking it.

NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 14 Line Movement

Carolina Panthers (+5.5) at New Orleans Saints (-115; BetMGM)

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New York Jets (+3.5) at Houston Texans (-105; FanDuel)

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Bengals (-2.0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-110; Caesars)

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Under 43.5 (-115; FanDuel)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Over 48.5 (-110; BetMGM)