NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 17 Line Movement

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid's homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

Another week, another four wins for the sharp plays in Week 16. It brings us to 47-30-3 for the year, good for a win rate north of 61%. Any time you’re flirting with a 60% win rate in the NFL, you’re having an incredibly good season.

Let's dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 17.

Buffalo Bills (-13.5) vs. New England Patriots (-115; PointsBet)

Opening Line: Bills -6.5
Target Range: Bills -14.0 or better

This season has not gone the way the Patriots had hoped. They’re closer to the No. 1 pick than they are to making the playoffs, largely thanks to their disastrous offense. They’ve tried Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe at quarterback, and neither player has been effective. Among 41 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays this season, Zappe ranks 35th in EPA + CPOE composite while Jones ranks 36th.

To be fair, neither player has gotten much help. The Patriots had one of the worst groups of skill position players in the league at full strength, and they’re far from full strength at the moment. Rhamondre Stevenson is done for the year after being placed on Injured Reserve, while Ezekiel Elliott and JuJu Smith-Schuster didn’t practice on Friday.

Top offensive lineman Trent Brown was also absent from Friday’s practice, so this offense could be in shambles on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off three straight wins, and they need to keep winning to ensure a postseason spot. They did not bring their best effort last week vs. the Chargers, but that game was played on the road on short rest. Now, they’ll return home with an extra day to prepare for New England. The Bills also dropped their first game vs. the Patriots, so they should be laser-focused for this contest.

The sharps have taken this number up to -14.0 across most of the industry, but there’s still a -13.5 available on PointsBet. If you miss the -13.5, grabbing the Bills at -14.0 is still more than acceptable. If they bring close to their A-game on Sunday, this one should not be close.

New York Giants (+5.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-105; DraftKings)

Opening Line: Giants -3.0
Target Range: Giants +4.5 or better

The Rams have been very good to the sharps this season. They were one of the more undervalued teams early in the season, and they’ve gone 9-5-1 ATS in 2023.

However, things change quickly in the NFL. A team can go from undervalued to overvalued in the blink of an eye, which appears to be the case this week.

Dec 21, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) reacts after a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Rams are a good football team but far from a juggernaut. They’re ninth in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, checking in at roughly two points above average. Their offense is one of the best in football – they’re second in EPA/play since getting Kyren Williams back in Week 12 – but their defense remains a below-average unit.

Is this team good enough that they deserve to be favored by nearly a touchdown on the road? Probably not.

The Giants are one of the worst teams in football, but they are at least deciding to go back to Tyrod Taylor. That’s a sizable upgrade over Tommy DeVito. Matthew Freedman has Taylor as +1.2 points better than DeVito in his QB ATS value chart, so his return should help the Giants’ offense.

The sharps have been all over the Giants in this spot, racking up 71% of the dollars on just 42% of the tickets (per the Action Network). I could see this number moving in the Giants’ favor before kickoff, but that’s not a massive deal at the current spread. 5.5 is not a key number, so getting the Giants at anything better than +4.0 is playable.

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Carolina Panthers (+6.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-110; DraftKings)

Opening Line: Panthers +5.0
Target Range: Panthers +5.5 or better

This one comes down to Trevor Lawrence. It remains to be seen if he’ll be in the lineup, and he’s yet to practice this week. He was at Clemson’s bowl game on Friday – along with Travis Etienne – so he’s likely headed for a questionable designation.

That’s nothing new for Lawrence. He’s played through basically everything this season, and if he has his way, he’ll likely be on the field vs. the Jaguars. This is a must-win contest, with the Jaguars currently tied with the Colts and Texans atop the AFC South.

However, Lawrence’s injuries have taken a toll on his play over the past month or so. He averaged 7.44 adjusted yards per attempt through his first 12 games, but he’s dropped to just 4.98 over his past three. Unsurprisingly, the Jaguars have lost all three of those contests. Two of those matchups were against the Browns and Ravens – two of the best defenses in football – but Lawrence has eight turnovers in that span. It doesn’t matter who you’re playing; if you’re not protecting the football, you’re not going to be successful.

The team might be better off with C.J. Beathard than a less than 100% Lawrence. However, benching your franchise QB when he wants to play is a tough decision.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have played their best football since replacing Frank Reich with Chris Tabor. Bryce Young is coming off the best game of his career, so the team is trending in the right direction.

I’ve been fading Jacksonville for most of the year, and this seems like another spot to go against the Jaguars. The number isn’t quite as appealing as it was early in the week, but the Jaguars may lose this game outright. I’m happy to play Carolina at +5.0 or better, even if Lawrence ultimately suits up.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans Over 44.0 (-108; DraftKings)

Opening Total: 43.0
Target Range: Over 44.0 or lower

The Titans and Texans may not jump off the page as a game that screams “offense,” but both of these teams have some positives working in their favor.

For the Texans, it starts with the return of stud young quarterback C.J. Stroud. He’s missed the past two weeks with a concussion, but he’s been cleared to suit up vs. the Titans. The timing could not be better for Houston, who needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Dec 10, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws the ball during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

When Stroud has been healthy this season, he’s been one of the best quarterbacks in football. No exaggeration. He’s third in the league in adjusted yards per attempt and 12th in PFF grade. He likely would’ve broken all the rookie QB records if he had stayed healthy, and he’ll give the team a massive boost over backup Case Keenum.

Will Levis will also return to the lineup for the Titans, but that’s not nearly as big of a deal. In fact, it might be a downgrade compared to Ryan Tannehill. Levis can produce more splash plays, but Tannehill is more consistent at moving the chains.

Instead, the positive for Tennessee is the matchup. Houston started the year as a middle-of-the-pack defense, but they’ve been shredded recently. They allowed 30 points to the Jets and 36 to the Browns over the past three weeks, and neither of those offenses is particularly impressive. Since their bye in Week 7, the team is merely 21st in EPA/play defensively, and they could be without a host of key contributors on that side of the ball once again.

Overall, this game has a good case for more scoring than you might initially expect. 44.0 is a key number in total betting, so locking this one in before it reaches 44.5 is a wise decision.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs Under 44.0 (-110; BetMGM)

Opening Total: 50.5
Target Range: Under 44.0 or lower

Oh, what could’ve been. This was a game that NFL fans were dreaming of when the schedule was first released, but the injury to Joe Burrow changed everything. Instead of the fifth matchup between Burrow and Patrick Mahomes, we’ll have to settle for Mahomes vs. Jake Browning.

Browning has held his own as the Bengals starting quarterback, but he’s not Burrow. He’s relied heavily on his playmakers, averaging just 5.0 air yards on his completions. His receivers have averaged 6.8 yards after the catch, so they’re doing most of the heavy lifting.

That worked out well for Browning through his first four starts, but he came crashing back to reality vs. the Steelers. He averaged just 5.24 adjusted yards per attempt – his worst mark since taking over for Burrow – and the offense managed just 11 points. The Chiefs’ defense has been strong against the pass this season, so it could be another long week for Browning.

While the Chiefs’ defense has held up their end of the bargain, their offense continues to struggle. Mahomes has less talent to work with than at any other point in his career, and it’s showing on the field. Kansas City is ninth in yards per game and 11th in points after leading the league in both departments last season.

Overall, the Chiefs are just 5-10 to the over this season. Only the Raiders have been worse, so this game figures to be another low-scoring one.

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