NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 18 Line Movement

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid's homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

The sharps treaded water in Week 17, going 2-3 on the plays posted in this article. That said, they’re still 49-33-3 for the year, good for a win rate of 59.8%. That’s an excellent figure for the volume, but hopefully, we can finish the regular season on a high note.

Let's dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 18.

Baltimore Ravens (+3.0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+100; BetMGM)

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5
Target Range: Ravens +3.0 or better

This is the favorite game for the pros on Saturday, and it’s honestly one of their favorites for the entire Week 18 slate. This game will essentially be a preseason game for Baltimore and a postseason game for Pittsburgh. The Steelers need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the Ravens are already locked into the No. 1 seed.

The Ravens have already announced that Tyler Huntley will start in place of MVP-front runner Lamar Jackson, and that’s a significant downgrade for Baltimore. Jackson has averaged 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt as a passer, adding 821 yards and five scores on the ground. Huntley has averaged just 5.2 adjusted yards per attempt for his career, and while he’s an excellent athlete, he’s not nearly as elusive as Jackson.

Additionally, the Ravens have already ruled out five additional players – WR Odell Beckham Jr., G Kevin Zeitler, CB Marlon Humphries, LB Malik Harrison, and DB Daryl Worley – while WR Zay Flowers is doubtful. Six additional players are also listed as questionable:

So why do the sharps like the Ravens? Even without some key contributors, expect Baltimore to play extremely hard. They were in the exact same scenario in 2019 – Jackson’s first MVP season – and they beat the Steelers in the final week in a game where they had nothing to gain and the Steelers were fighting for their lives. Head coach John Harbaugh is an elite preseason coach who knows how to motivate his players in a “meaningless” contest.

Keeping their biggest rivals out of the postseason should be more than enough ammunition to have Harbaugh’s boys fired up on Saturday. The Ravens are obviously not the same team without Jackson, but they’re arguably still the superior squad overall.

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Carolina Panthers (+4.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-105; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Panthers -2.5
Target Range: Panthers +4.5 or better

Just like in the previous contest, the sharps have no problem backing a team with nothing to play for against a team fighting for a spot in the postseason. The Buccaneers need a win to secure the NFC South crown; otherwise, it goes to the winner of Falcons-Saints.

Dec 31, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the New Orleans Saints in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

That’s not a huge surprise. The public tends to overvalue “motivation” when it comes to the final week of the season. Even though the Panthers won’t be playing for a playoff spot, these are professional athletes fighting for jobs heading into next year. They’re not going to roll over and die just because their season ends after Week 18.

Per Stuckey from the Action Network, teams that “need a win” over the final two weeks of the regular season are just 64-100-4 ATS since 1990 when facing a team already eliminated from postseason contention. The Buccaneers fit this trend in Week 18, as do the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Packers.

Additionally, the Buccaneers are currently operating with a quarterback at less than 100%. Baker Mayfield was a DNP on Wednesday and got in a limited practice on Thursday before returning for a full practice on Friday. He’s officially listed as questionable, and while there’s almost no shot he misses this contest, he could be less effective than he’s been for most of the year.

Mayfield and the Bucs managed just 13 points last week vs. the Saints, and that game was played in Tampa Bay. The Panthers are worse than the Saints, but they can sneak up on you if you’re not prepared. They’ve beaten the Falcons and have a three-point loss to the Packers over the past three weeks, and they’ve got nothing to lose in this spot. All the pressure will be on the Bucs, so don’t be surprised if this one is closer than expected.

You can tail the Panthers at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Detroit Lions (-110; Caesars)

Opening Line: Vikings +2.5
Target Range: Vikings +3.0 or better

The Lions have been a prime fade candidate for the sharps down the stretch, mainly due to their subpar defense. Their secondary has been the biggest issue, with the Lions ranking 30th in dropback EPA since Week 7.

They allowed CeeDee Lamb to absolutely torch their secondary last week – 13 catches, 227 yards, one touchdown – and now they’ll have to go toe-to-toe with arguably the best receiver in football. Justin Jefferson has had a bit of a lost season but remains unguardable when on the field. He’s played in seven full games this season and has at least 141 yards in four of them. He has at least 84 yards in two others, with the lone exception being last week’s game with Jaren Hall at quarterback.

Going with Hall in a must-win spot was one of the worst coaching decisions of the year, but the team is going back to Nick Mullens vs. the Lions. Mullens is sometimes a questionable decision-maker – to put things generously – but that could work in his favor in this matchup. Throwing up a few YOLO balls to Jefferson against this subpar secondary could result in some monster plays.

Defensively, the Vikings will have their hands full with Jared Goff and company, but they were able to keep up with them two weeks ago in Minnesota. They were only outgained by one yard, with the big difference being four turnovers for the Vikings compared to just one for Detroit. Even with a minus-three turnover differential, the Vikings still lost by just six points. If Mullens doesn’t actively sabotage the team on Sunday, they could pull off an upset victory.

Finally, remember that the Lions don’t have much to play for. They’d need the Cowboys to lose to move up to the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and they’re favored by nearly two touchdowns. If Dallas builds a big lead in the first half, don’t be surprised if Dan Campbell calls off the dogs down the stretch.

You can tail the Vikings at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below!

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Under 48.5 (-110; BetMGM)

Opening Total: 48.5
Target Range: Under 47.5 or better

The final game of the week is one of the best. The Bills and Dolphins will square off in Miami, with the winner securing the AFC East crown and No. 2 seed in the conference. The Dolphins have already punched a Wild Card berth at worst, while the Bills could still miss the postseason entirely if they lose. In other words, the stakes are incredibly high.

Nov 19, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) celebrates after his interception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Both teams are known for their offenses but don’t sleep on the stop units in this matchup. Miami has been excellent defensively since getting back Jalen Ramsey in Week 8, ranking seventh in EPA/play. They were first in that time frame before last week’s performance vs. the Ravens, which also saw them lose star pass-rusher Bradley Chubb.

The Chubb injury hurts, but this defense grades out as an above-average unit.

On offense, the Dolphins could also be without some key contributors. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert missed last week’s matchup, and neither player suited up at practice on Wednesday or Thursday. With this game technically not a must-win for Miami, it wouldn’t be a massive shock if they aired on the side of caution and held them out for another week.

Meanwhile, the Bills’ offense has undergone a drastic shift under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. They’ve employed a run-heavy game script in three straight weeks, posting DBOEs of -10 %, -16%, and -9%. Running the ball keeps the clock moving, so that’s an excellent development for under bettors. The past three Bills’ games have checked in at 48, 46, and 41 total points.

The first meeting between these squads this season saw 68 total points, but there are plenty of reasons to believe this game is far lower scoring. The sharps have hammered the under in this spot, racking up 98% of the dollars, and I’m happy to play it at anything better than 47.5.

New York Jets at New England Patriots Under 30.5 (-110; DraftKings)

Opening Total: 38.5
Target Range: Under 30.0 or better

What happens when you take two poor offensive teams, put them in bad weather, and give them nothing to play for? I’m not 100% sure, but it sounds like an excellent formula for an under.

Let’s start with the teams. The Jets and Patriots have had disastrous seasons, and they rank 29th and 32nd, respectively, in points per game. They boast two of the worst quarterbacks in football, with Trevor Siemian (44th) and Bailey Zappe (38th) ranking near the bottom of the league in EPA + CPOE among 44 QBs with at least 150 plays.

Additionally, both of these squads are strong defensively. The Jets are third in EPA/play for the year, while the Patriots are just outside the top 10 at No. 12. However, the Patriots are second in rushing EPA against, so they’re well-equipped to shut down the Jets’ offense.

Unsurprisingly, both of these teams have played in a lot of low-scoring contests. They’re both 7-9 to the under this season, despite routinely playing in the lowest-totalled games of the week.

Finally, the weather in New England is expected to be pretty brutal. The forecast calls for sustained winds of greater than 15 miles per hour and precipitation, so both offenses could be even more inept than usual.

This total is already extremely low, but I could see it getting even lower before kickoff. The public loves to bet the under in weather games, so if there’s snow in Foxborough, this total could dip below 30 points.

You can tail the under at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below!

NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 18 Line Movement

Baltimore Ravens (+3.0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+100; BetMGM)

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Carolina Panthers (+4.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-105; FanDuel)

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Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Detroit Lions (-110; Caesars)

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Under 48.5 (-110; BetMGM)

New York Jets at New England Patriots Under 30.5 (-110; DraftKings)

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