NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 2 Line Movement.

One of the best things about sports betting is that you don’t have to go it alone.

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at FantasyLife.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

The sharps went 3-2 in the five games in our Week 1 Sharp Report, and it could’ve been 4-1 if the Colts completed the backdoor cover.

Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 2.

Ravens at Bengals

Opening Line: Bengals -3.5
Current Line: Bengals -3.0

No team laid a bigger egg than the Bengals in Week 1. They took the field as small road favorites against the Browns but were thoroughly embarrassed by their division rivals. They managed just three points and 142 yards of total offense, resulting in a 21-point defeat.

They go straight from one division rival to another in Week 2, this time against the Ravens. The Ravens weren’t firing on all cylinders in Week 1 against the Texans, but their defense was good enough to propel them to a 25-9 win.

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) looks to throw with pressure from Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau (50) in the second half. The Jets defeated the Bills in overtime, 22-16, in the home opener at MetLife Stadium on Monday, Sept. 11, 2023, in East Rutherford.

The public likes the idea of grabbing the points with the Ravens in this spot, which makes sense. The Bengals were horrid last week, and the Ravens have historically been amazing as underdogs.

Lamar Jackson is a ridiculous 10-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, with his only loss coming against the Chiefs in 2019. Even in that contest, the Ravens took the field as 4.5-point dogs and lost by five, so Jackson’s track record as an underdog is impeccable.

However, the sharps love buying low on teams like the Bengals, so they’re comfortable going against the Jackson trends in this spot. Cincinnati has received only 49% of the spread bets, but they’ve accounted for 76% of the dollars (per the Action Network). That’s one of the most significant discrepancies of the week.

The Bengals have been the best ATS team in the league over the past two seasons, so they also fit some strong trends. Like most elite quarterbacks, Joe Burrow has been phenomenal after a loss throughout his career, posting a mark of 12-4 ATS.

Jets at Cowboys

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.0 (pre Aaron Rodgers injury)
Current Line: Cowboys -9.0

Growing up a Jets fan, I’m not sure the Jets have ever Jetsed harder than they Jetsed on Monday night. This was the most anticipated season in franchise history, with Aaron Rodgers coming to New York to lead the team to the promised land.

We know how things went next. Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury on his fourth play of the year, and he’s officially done for the season.

The downgrade from Rodgers to Zach Wilson is going to be a steep one. Even if Rodgers isn’t the same MVP-caliber QB he was in his prime, he’s still a significant upgrade over Wilson.

However, this line has moved six points due to that injury. That might be slightly overvaluing Rodgers in the eyes of the sharps.

To put things in perspective, the best quarterbacks in football are worth roughly a touchdown on the spread. Pro Football Focus has Patrick Mahomes worth 7.5 points, while Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are worth 6.5 apiece. Are we really putting Rodgers in that stratosphere at nearly 40 years old?

Rodgers is coming off one of his worst seasons in 2022. He was 19th among quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite among passers with at least 400 plays and 11th in PFF grade. I think he’s probably worth closer to four or five points these days, and that still might be a touch generous.

The Jets are basically elite at every other position on the field. Their defense has the potential to be a juggernaut, while Breece Hall reminded everyone how good he was in Week 1. If any team can pick up the slack for Wilson, it’s Gang Green.

Conversely, the Cowboys might be the most overrated team in football following their 40-0 victory over the Giants. The Cowboys are an excellent team, but it’s only natural to become overrated following such a thorough thrashing. Teams are just 49-67-5 ATS following a victory of at least 35 points since 2004.

Add it all up, and this is the perfect time to sell high on Dallas and buy low on the Jets.

Dolphins at Patriots

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5
Current Line: Dolphins -3.0

Both of these teams were impressive in Week 1, albeit in different ways.

The Dolphins put their magnificent aerial attack on display, with Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill combining for 215 yards and two touchdowns. The rest of the offense was pretty damn good as well, with the Dolphins racking up 536 yards. That was easily the top mark in the league in Week 1, surpassing the next closest team by more than 100 yards.

The only issue for the Dolphins was that their defense was nearly as bad as their offense was good.

The team that finished second in yards in Week 1? That would be the Chargers, who repeatedly gashed the Dolphins on the ground. Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley torched them for more than 200 combined yards, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. The scary part is that the Chargers had one of the worst rushing attacks in the entire league in 2022, averaging the third-fewest yards per game.

New England couldn’t secure the upset against the Eagles in Week 1, but they were arguably the better team. They out-gained Philly by 137 yards, but subpar efficiency was ultimately their undoing. They had two turnovers, three turnovers on downs, and converted just three of their five redzone trips into points.

Mac Jones showed plenty of improvement compared to how he played last season, which is a major positive. They should get more out of their running game vs. the Dolphins than they did vs. the Eagles, so expect the offense to be more balanced overall.

Ultimately, the sharps love getting a full field goal with the Patriots at home. Their defense should give the Dolphins much more trouble than the Chargers did in Week 1, while their rushing attack should find more success than it did vs. Philly.

That’s a nice combination for New England, who has received 71% of the dollars on just 43% of the bets.

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Colts at Texans

Opening Total: 41.0
Current Total: 40.0

Unders have been the defining trend in the NFL over the past two years. The under has gone 297-243-3 in the regular season over that time frame, good for a +5.2% return on investment. That may not sound like much, but you’d be up more than 28 units if you took the under in each matchup.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) looks down field Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, during a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Unders are off to another outstanding start in 2023, going 12-4 in Week 1. Will that trend continue, or will the books overcompensate? Most of the totals this week have seen a slight decrease compared to the lookahead line, so they are doing their best to adjust.

This number is down to 39.5 at most sportsbooks, but you can still find 40.0 at Caesars. The sharps have been pounding the under in this matchup, racking up 83% of the dollars on a little more than half the tickets.

This matchup will feature two rookie quarterbacks, and the rookies unsurprisingly struggled in Week 1. Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson each made mistakes, and their three teams combined for just 40 points.

Overall, rookie QBs are now 10-32 straight up in the first four weeks of the season over the past five years.

One of the rookies will get a win in this matchup, but it likely won’t be the prettiest football. Expect points to be at a premium.

49ers at Rams

Opening Total: 44.0
Current Total: 44.5

This matchup features one of the few totals that has moved up since opening, and the sharps and public appear to be on the same side. Both groups have attacked this number, with the over receiving 75% of the bets and 90% of the dollars.

Both of these offenses looked magnificent in Week 1.

For the 49ers, it was more of the same from Brock Purdy. He’s still yet to lose a game where he started and finished, and he was hyper-efficient vs. the Steelers. The team hit 27 points early in the third quarter, which allowed them to take their foot off the gas a bit down the stretch. The Steelers are known for their defense, but stopping the 49ers' impressive collection of skill-position players is nearly impossible.

Meanwhile, it felt like Matthew Stafford had something to prove in Week 1. Stafford won the Super Bowl two years ago, but injuries to him, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald resulted in a disastrous follow-up campaign.

Stafford is clearly healthy, and he torched the Seahawks on Sunday. Even without Kupp, Stafford racked up 334 passing yards, while the team’s running backs combined for three rushing TDs. The Rams hung 30 points on the Seahawks, resulting in a 17-point win despite entering the game as sizable underdogs.

The Rams will face a stiffer test this week vs. San Francisco, but Stafford reminded everyone that he’s still a well-above-average NFL quarterback when healthy.

Both of these offenses seemed undervalued heading into the year, so an over in their head-to-head matchup makes a lot of sense.

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