NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 5 Line Movement.

One of the best things about sports betting is that you don’t have to go it alone.

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at FantasyLife.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

After a 4-1 showing in Week 3, the sharp sides highlighted in this article improved to a perfect 5-0 in Week 4. The pros got wins with the Buccaneers, Texans, and Bears as underdogs, while the unders cashed in Ravens-Browns and Falcons-Jaguars.

Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 5.

Panthers at Lions

Opening Line: Lions -5.0
Current Line: Lions -9.5

It has not been a great start to the year for the Panthers. They traded away D.J. Moore in order to move up to the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and Moore is off to a phenomenal start in his new home. Additionally, the QB they selected with the first pick (Bryce Young) has been vastly outplayed by the quarterback that went No. 2 (C.J. Stroud). It’s still early, and Young by no means has looked like a bust, but passing on a potential Pro Bowl-caliber QB in Stroud has the potential to set this team back years.

Meanwhile, the Panthers are still looking for their first win on the field. They’re 0-4, and most of their games have not been competitive: They’re 0-3-1 against the spread. Only the Giants have cost bettors more money than the Panthers through the first four weeks.

The good news is that the Panthers haven’t been all that terrible. They lost by three points to the Saints and eight points vs. the Vikings, and they had a chance to beat Minnesota at the end of that game. They also played the Seahawks tough in Seattle, but they ended up pulling away in the second half.

Overall, the Panthers rank 19th in yardage differential, so it’s not like this team has been dominated by their opponents.

The Panthers’ struggles have created some value in the betting market. This number opened as Lions -5.0 but has ballooned all the way to Lions -9.5. It even briefly got to Lions -10.0, but the sharps ultimately gobbled that number up very quickly.

Historically, teams that have failed to cover in four straight games become excellent buy-low targets. They’ve gone 311-264-14 ATS dating back to 2005, good for a +5.4% return on investment.

Ideally, this number will get back to 10.0, but the sharps have a clear lean toward the Panthers in this matchup.

Bengals at Cardinals

Opening Line: Bengals -7.5
Current Line: Bengals -3.0

Like in the last game, this line has seen significant movement. This number initially opened as Bengals -7.5, but they’re down to just three-point road favorites against the Cardinals. That kind of movement would typically lead the pros to believe the Bengals are a value.

That said, this is not a typical situation.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) looks to pass against the Tennessee Titans during the third quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on Oct. 1, 2023.

The Bengals have been nothing short of a disaster to start the year. Joe Burrow is clearly playing through an injury, and his results on the field have suffered. Out of 32 qualified quarterbacks, no one has been worse in EPA + CPOE than Burrow. You read that correctly. Guys like Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, and Desmond Ridder have all been better than the swaggiest QB in the league.

Since Burrow continues to suit up, it’s unlikely that his injured ankle is doing a ton of healing. He’s no longer listed on the injury report, but it’s hard to believe he’s much healthier than last week.

On the other side, the Cardinals have been far more competitive than expected this season. They played close games against the Commanders and Giants to start the year, and they followed that up with a massive upset over the Cowboys. Even last week’s game against the 49ers was more competitive than the final score indicated. Joshua Dobbs has looked like a legit NFL-caliber starting quarterback while they’re seventh in EPA/rush.

In short, the Bengals will only come to Arizona and take care of business if they play much better than they have to start the year. The sharps clearly don’t think they can do that, with Arizona getting 55% of the spread bets and 79% of the dollars (via the Action Network).

Chiefs at Vikings

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.0
Current Line: Chiefs -3.5

The Chiefs had a prototypical win in Week 4 against the Jets. They managed to secure a victory without ever really being threatened, but they also failed to cover the spread.

A lot of ink has been spilled about the Chiefs’ inability to cover spreads. Since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback, he’s just 32-39-1 ATS when favored by more than a field goal (including playoffs).

This current number is on the low side of that trend, so the Chiefs don’t need to blow out the Vikings to cover. Still, history suggests that we should temper our expectations.

The Vikings are just 1-3 to start the year, but they are not a bad football team. They’ve struggled mightily with turnovers through the first four weeks – their 11 turnovers is the worst mark in the league – but they still have an excellent offense. They’re ninth in yards per game, so they can move the ball better than most. If they can cut down on the mistakes, they’ll have a chance to win plenty of games moving forward.

The sharps definitely like the Vikings in this matchup. They’ve received just 30% of the spread bets, but those bets have accounted for 61% of the dollars. That’s one of the largest discrepancies of the week.

Kirk Cousins has also performed admirably as a home underdog throughout his career, going 11-9 against the spread. The Vikings may not feel like a safe pick, but they’re worth considering.

Ravens at Steelers

Opening Total: 41.5
Current Total: 38.0

The sharps got on the board with a Ravens’ under in Week 4, and they’re going right back to the well in Week 5. This time, the Ravens will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.

The Ravens haven’t had a ton of issues on offense this season, but they’re still dealing with numerous vital injuries on that side of the ball. Morgan Moses is doubtful to suit up vs. Pittsburgh, while Ronnie Stanley, Odell Beckham Jr., and Justice Hill are questionable.

Sep 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) reacts after a reception against the Houston Texans during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Even if the Ravens get some of those players back this week, the Steelers still represent a challenging matchup. They haven’t been quite as stout as in recent years, but the Steelers still have plenty of players on defense capable of wrecking a game. T.J. Watt already has six sacks this season, while Alex Highsmith has seven QB hits.

Additionally, the Steelers’ offense should struggle to hold up their end of the bargain. Pickett is expected to suit up despite a bone bruise on his left knee. Pickett has struggled at full strength this season, so the idea of a banged-up Pickett should have under-bettors salivating.

The Ravens' defense has also been outstanding to start the year, ranking third in points and yards allowed per game. They haven’t faced the most demanding schedule, but they’ve still managed to hold three of four opponents to under 300 total yards.

Add it all up, and points should be at a premium in this spot.

Jets at Broncos

Opening Total: 40.0
Current Total: 43.5

The pros tend to see more value with unders than overs, but they’re making an exception for Jets-Broncos. This total has increased by 3.5 points since opening, with 98% of the dollars landing on the over. That means this number could continue to rise as we approach kickoff.

The key team here is the Broncos, who have the potential to be an over-machine this season. They’re 3-1 to the over this season, with the lone exception being back in Week 1. Each of their past three games has seen at least 59 total points.

The Broncos possess the perfect combination of a solid offense and abysmal defense. Russell Wilson has quietly put together an excellent first season under new head coach Sean Payton. He’s averaged 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and two interceptions, and he’s fourth among quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE.

On defense, the Broncos have been an absolute sieve. They’re dead last in virtually every defensive metric, and while part of that stems from the Dolphins hanging 70 points on them, they haven’t exactly shined in their other contests, either. They allowed 28 points to the Bears and 35 points to the Commanders, who are far from offensive juggernauts.

The Jets’ offense remains a major question mark, but they showed progress last week vs. the Chiefs. Wilson put together one of his best games at quarterback, providing some optimism for his outlook moving forward. If he can do his part, this game has the potential to go well over the listed number.

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