NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 8 Line Movement

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

It was another solid week for the plays highlighted in this article in Week 7, with the pros going 3-1-1. Overall, these plays are now 21-13-1 for the year.

Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 8.

Washington Commanders (+7.0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-108; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Commanders +6.5
Current Line: Commanders +7.0 (52% of bets)

Can you say sandwich game? The Eagles are coming off a massive win last week vs. the Dolphins, and they have one of their biggest games of the season coming up in Week 9. They’re taking on the Cowboys, arguably their biggest rival and the clear top threat for the Eagles’ NFC East crown.

With that in mind, don’t be surprised if the Eagles aren’t giving the Commanders their full attention.

Washington is sitting at just 3-4 for the season, and they’re coming off an embarrassing showing last week vs. the Giants. They managed just seven points, and their offense continues to be a disaster. Specifically, quarterback Sam Howell has been sacked 40 times through their first seven games. The record for most sacks in a season is 76 by David Carr in 2002, and Howell is on pace to shatter that with a 17-game pace of more than 97 sacks.

The Eagles have an excellent pass rush, but the Commanders still managed to take them to overtime in Philadelphia in their first matchup this season. If the Eagles have one eye on the looming Cowboys matchup, this game could be closer than expected.

The pros are happy to grab the full touchdown with the Commanders, who have received 74% of the dollars on 52% of the bets. The Commanders have covered in their past three divisional games as an underdog of at least a touchdown, including against the Eagles earlier this season. As long as this number stays at seven, the Commanders are the right side.

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-105; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Packers +1.0
Current Line: Packers +1.5 (62% of bets)

This is another divisional rivalry, and the line movement in this game has been fascinating. The Packers were listed as slight home underdogs when this line was first released, but they quickly became favorites. It got up to Packers -2.5 on Monday, but then the Vikings played on Monday Night Football. The Vikings secured an upset victory over the 49ers, and since then, the line has shifted back into their favor.

Oct 23, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Vikings have been a tough team to peg all year. They’re clearly better than their current record indicates, and they entered Week 7 as the unluckiest team in all of football. That made them undervalued for a matchup vs. the 49ers, who have not looked the same offensively without Deebo Samuel.

Now that the Vikings have pulled off a big win, have they shifted from undervalued to overvalued? It’s possible.

The Massey-Peabody Power Ratings have these two squads rated very comparably, with the Vikings roughly 1.3 points better on a neutral field. Of course, this week’s game will not be played on a neutral field. Home field advantage is worth less now than ever, but Lambeau Field is still worth something. Even giving the Packers a one-point home-field advantage means this game should be closer to a pick’em.

This week’s version of the Packers should also be healthier than last week’s team that lost to the Broncos. De’Vondre Campbell practiced all week and appears set to suit up for the first time since Week 3, while Jaire Alexander is questionable after practicing on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Vikings are still without Justin Jefferson, who might be the best receiver in football. Other players were able to step up in his absence vs. the 49ers, but that might not be the case every week.

The Packers are a team I have been low on for most of the year, but this feels like a good time to buy low on them and sell high on the Vikings. The moneyline might be your best bet at +110.

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Indianapolis Colts (+1.0) vs. New Orleans Saints (-110; Caesars)

Opening Line: Colts +1.5
Current Line: Colts +1.0 (32% of bets)

I know I’m tired of losing money with the Saints, who have been a preferred target of the sharps for most of the season. They routinely outgain their opponents, yet their inability in the red zone has left them unable to take advantage of their superiority.

Last week’s game vs. the Jaguars was a perfect example. They outgained the Jaguars, won the turnover battle, and had fewer penalty yards. That’s a game that the Saints are supposed to win. Instead, they lost by a full touchdown after Foster Moreau couldn’t secure a potential game-tying touchdown in the end zone:

It appears the sharps are also sick of losing money with the Saints, and they’re looking to fade them with the Colts in Week 8. The Colts are also coming off a tough loss in Week 7, but there were plenty of positives to take away vs. the Browns.

For starters, the fact that they scored 38 points stands is extremely impressive. Cleveland’s defense isn’t just good; it’s historically good. They have one of the best marks in EPA/dropback in recent history, and Gardner Minshew shredded them for 305 yards and two touchdowns. If not for some moments of sheer brilliance from Myles Garrett, the Colts could’ve had an even bigger day offensively.

While the Saints' defense isn’t bad, they’re not nearly in the same ballpark as the Browns and definitely don’t possess someone of Garrett’s caliber. Minshew continues to cement his status as a bonafide starting-caliber QB, and he ranks better than Anthony Richardson in EPA + CPOE composite. Not only is the offense nearly as effective with Minshew, they might be better.

The Saints have yet to prove that they deserve to be road favorites over a competent team, and the Colts are definitely competent. The sharps have been all over Indy in this spot, racking up 61% of the dollars on just 32% of the bets. They’re another strong moneyline candidate, with the best line checking it at +100.

You can tail the moneyline at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below!

New York Giants at New York Giants Under 35.5 (-108; DraftKings)

Opening Total: 39.0
Current Total: 36.0 (48% of bets)

It has been the year of the under. We thought 2022 was an excellent year for unders – they went 151-119-1 during the regular season, good for a +7.0% return on investment – but 2022 has had nothing on 2023. The under is off to a 65-41-1 start, resulting in an astronomical +17.0% ROI.

Oct 22, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants cornerback Deonte Banks (25) celebrates after an interception against the Washington Commanders during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

There has to be some market correction at some point, but the sharps are not expecting it to happen in New York. These two squads have both had massive struggles offensively this season, causing this total to plummet all the way to 35.5.

That total might feel low, but low totals have had no problems hitting in 2023. Closing totals of 38 or less are a perfect 5-0-1 this season.

The Jets are known for their strong defense and weak offense, but the Giants have surprisingly been a dead under team this season. They’re 6-1 to the under, tying them for the top mark in football.

The Giants’ defense has shown some serious improvement in recent weeks, holding the Commanders to seven points in Week 7 and the Bills to 14 points in Week 6. If they can continue to do their job, the Jets’ defense should be able to take advantage of the Giants’ depleted offensive line.

Add it all up, and points figure to be at a premium in this spot. I’m happy to continue riding the under train until it stops working.

You can tail the under on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of $5 or more below!

Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Under 35.5 (-110; BetMGM)

Opening Total: 39.0
Current Total: 35.5 (73% of bets)

This matchup feels very similar to Jets-Giants. The Falcons are another team with a 6-1 record to the under this season, thanks mainly to their preferred play style.

Last season, the Falcons were dead last in Dropback Over Expectation. They threw the ball -13.32% less than you would expect from a team in comparable game scripts. They’ve been a smidge more pass-heavy this season, but they’re still at a -7.01% DBOE through their first seven contests. They’ve also had a positive DBOE in just one contest.

Running the ball is excellent for unders. Not only is running less effective than passing – which helps keep points off the scoreboard – but it also keeps the clock running. That tends to result in quicker games, meaning fewer possessions for each team.

There are also fewer explosive run plays than pass plays, and quick scores are often the death of an under. In other words, an eight-minute touchdown drive doesn’t hurt nearly as much as a one-minute one.

The Titans are a similarly constructed team, and they will have Will Levis make his first career start in this matchup. With that in mind, don’t be surprised if he turns around and hands the ball to Derrick Henry A LOT.

This is another game where the sharps think points will be hard to come by. The under has received a whopping 92% of the dollars, driving it down to 35.5 across the industry. I wouldn’t be surprised if it closed even lower, so I’m locking this bet in now.

You can tail the under 35.5 on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 8 Line Movement

Washington Commanders (+7.0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-108; FanDuel)

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-105; FanDuel)

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Indianapolis Colts (+1.0) vs. New Orleans Saints (-110; Caesars)

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New York Giants at New York Giants Under 35.5 (-108; DraftKings)

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Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans Under 35.5 (-110; BetMGM)

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