NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 7 Line Movement

There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.

One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.

You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.

For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.

The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.

Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.

Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.

Week 6 was a bounceback for the sharps; they went 3-2 on the picks highlighted in this article.

Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 7.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+8.5) (-110, BetMGM)

Opening Line: Patriots +3.5
Current Line: Patriots +8.5 (26% of bets)

Public sentiment on the Patriots may be lower than it has been my entire football life. That’s not hyperbole. It was never this low during the Tom Brady era, and they’ve remained competitive in the years since his departure.

That has changed in 2023.

The team had solid expectations coming into the year, led by a defense that was expected to be good. The offense was also expected to rebound after hiring Bill O’Brien in the offseason to replace Matt Patricia as offensive coordinator, but everything has gone wrong.

The team sits at just 1-5, leaving fans and reporters alike to wonder if this team would be better off tanking.

Still, the Patriots have not been that bad. They did have two ugly showings against the Saints and Cowboys, but they’ve been competitive in their other four contests. They managed to beat the Jets – a win that looks better each week – while they hung in there with the Eagles and Dolphins. There’s a universe not that far away where the Patriots are 4-2 or 3-3 heading into this week’s matchup vs. the Bills.

Ultimately, this team ranks 19th in yardage differential but 31st in scoring differential. That suggests they’ve been unlucky more than severely outplayed.

Buffalo is undoubtedly a good team, occupying the No. 2 spot in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. They deserve to be significant favorites in this spot, but this might be too many points.

The Patriots are checking in as one of the sharpest teams of the week, grabbing 63% of the spread dollars on just 26% of the bets (per the Action Network).

This line is already down to Bills -7.5 at some of the sharper sportsbooks, so grabbing the 8.5 while it’s still available makes a lot of sense.

You can grab Patriots +8.5 at BetMGM, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if it does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY:

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) (-110, BetMGM)

Opening Line: Buccaneers +1.0
Current Line: Buccaneers -2.5 (73% of bets)

This was one of the first bets I locked into the FantasyLife Bet Tracker for Week 7. I’m not entirely sure why the Buccaneers are laying less than a field goal at home, but I’m happy to take advantage.

This is the rare spot where the sharps and public agree, with the Buccaneers receiving 73% of the spread bets and 82% of the dollars.

Oct 15, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the Detroit Lions in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

With that in mind, it’s a bit surprising that we haven’t seen this number get to three yet, but as long as it stays below that key number, I think the Buccaneers make for a fantastic selection.

They match up exceptionally well with the Falcons. Atlanta needs to run the ball to succeed on offense, and the strength of the Bucs is their run defense. They’re third in EPA/rush defensively, so they should be able to keep Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in check.

If that happens, this turns into Baker Mayfield vs. Desmond Ridder, and I’ll take Mayfield in that matchup 10 times out of 10. Ridder is probably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL currently. He’s dead last among qualified passers in Pro Football Focus grade, while Mayfield ranks a respectable 12th.

Mayfield has had a tumultuous past few seasons while trying to find a home, but he’s found some stability with the Buccaneers. Against a porous Falcons’ pass defense, Mayfield should continue to build upon his bounceback campaign.

Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears (+2.5) (-102, FanDuel)

Opening Line: Bears -1.0
Current Line: Bears +2.5 (24% of bets)
Target Bet: Bears +3.0

This is the more traditional “sharps vs. squares” matchup, and the public has done surprisingly well in those so far this season. Teams getting at least 51% of the spread bets have gone 51-35-3 ATS to start the season, good for a +12.6% return on investment. That’s easily the best mark since at least 2003-04, with the previous high water mark +4.1% in 2016-17.

Can that continue? I doubt it, but as Kevin Garnett once said, anything is possible.

This matchup will feature a battle of backup quarterbacks, with Justin Fields and Jimmy Garoppolo already ruled out. That leaves Tyson Bagent to take on either Aidan O’Connell or Brian Hoyer. The Raiders have yet to name a starting QB in Garoppolo’s absence, and while O’Connell got the nod earlier this season, Hoyer has been ahead on the depth chart for most of the season. He replaced Garoppolo last Sunday, going 6-10 for 102 yards vs. the Patriots.

The public is skeptical of Bagent, and I don’t blame them. He’s an undrafted rookie and didn’t even play Division I college football. He played for Division II Shepherd – a school I for sure didn’t know existed until right now – and had two turnovers in relief of Fields last week vs. the Vikings.

Still, Bagent had an impressive offseason. He was good enough during minicamp, training camp, and the preseason that the Bears felt comfortable keeping him instead of Nathan Peterman and P.J. Walker. Bagent was also highly successful in college, setting the DII records for passing yards (17,034) and total touchdowns (171).

Is it that wild to think he might be better than O’Connell or a 38-year-old Hoyer?

The sharps have pushed the Bears off the key number of three, which is where this line sat for most of the week.

That’s unfortunate, but we may get it back at some point before kickoff. If that happens, I won’t hesitate to lock in a play.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (u48.0) (-110, BetMGM)

Opening Total: 52.0
Current Total: 48.0 (64% of bets to the under)

Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert – what could be better? These two quarterbacks have had some entertaining showdowns over the past three years, with the Chargers getting the better of it from an ATS perspective. Herbert is 4-1 ATS in five career matchups vs. Mahomes, even though his team has won just one of those games outright.

Sep 15, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) meets with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) following the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

A quarterback showdown like this makes you think of points, and these two squads have averaged 53.4 points in their five previous matchups. All but one of those games have gone for at least 51 points, and that was their first meeting back in 2020.

So why in the world do the sharps like the under?

It’s not fun to say, but given the current scoring environment in 2023, this is simply too many points for games not involving the Dolphins. The under has dominated in 2023, going an absurd 56-37-1 through the first six-plus weeks. In games with a total of at least 48 points, the under has gone 9-4.

The Chiefs and Chargers are familiar with big totals. Both teams have already played four games with a total of at least 48, and the under has gone 3-1 for both squads.

In short – we need to rethink what we think we know about offense in 2023.

The sharps have pushed this number down four full points, and it could continue to fall as we approach kickoff. The under has received 80% of the dollars on 64% of the bets, so this game could be lower-scoring than the public expects.

You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below and start betting TODAY!

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (o43.0) (-110, DraftKings)

Opening Total: 48.0
Current Total: 43.0

An over? In this economy?!?

The sharps aren’t on the over very often, but that’s the side they like in Lions-Ravens. This number dropped to 42.5 on Thursday, but since then, some sharp activity has pushed it back to 43.0.

One thing to note is the weather. The Ravens play on the East Coast, and those games have the potential to get ugly as it gets colder. However, the current forecast calls for moderate temperatures and no precipitation, a positive sign for scoring. The wind could still be a factor, but the conditions aren’t nearly as bad as they could’ve been.

Additionally, both of these teams are capable of scoring in bunches. The Lions possess one of the best offenses in football. They were a top-five unit in both yards and points per game last season, and they’re currently in the top four in both departments. The Ravens haven’t been quite as impressive, but they’ve also dealt with a bunch of critical injuries. Now that the team is getting healthier, they could be ready to explode.

43 and 44 are key numbers in total betting, so if you’re going to tail this wager, I’d recommend grabbing it as soon as possible.

I wouldn’t play it at much higher than 43.0, given how hard it has been for most teams to score points this season.

You can tail the o43.0 at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place an initial bet of at least $5 below!

NFL Sharp Report. Identifying Week 7 Line Movement

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+8.5) (-110, BetMGM)

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) (-110, BetMGM)

Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears (+2.5) (-102, FanDuel)

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (u48.0) (-110, BetMGM)

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Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (o43.0) (-110, DraftKings)

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