NFL Week 1 Betting Strategy. Identifying Key Numbers.

There’s a common phrase in NFL betting: Don’t bet teams, bet numbers.

This concept operates on the simple principle that not all numbers are created equally when it comes to point spreads.

The majority of NFL games are decided by certain key numbers. The numbers have changed a bit since the NFL increased the distance for extra point attempts, but 3.0 and 7.0 point spreads remain the most likely outcomes for any given NFL contest.

Approximately 15% of NFL contests end with a final margin of three points, and another 9.5% end with a final margin of seven points.

Other numbers like 4.0, 10.0, and 14.0 also matter, but 3.0 and 7.0 are clearly the most key numbers.

With that in mind, let’s dive into four matchups for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season that have seen activity around these key numbers.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders

Opening Line: Commanders -6.0
Current Line: Commanders -7.0 (-110, BetMGM)

The Commanders have been a clear riser during the preseason. There were questions about how the offense would fare under second-year QB Sam Howell, but he's impressed throughout the preseason, particularly in their dress rehearsal in Week 3.

In the win over the Ravens, Howell completed just under 76% of his passes, racking up 265 yards, three TDs, and no INTs. During the preseason as a whole, Howell played on seven drives and led the team to three TDs and a field goal on those drives.

On the other side of this game, expectations could not be any lower for the Cardinals. They have the lowest win total over/under in the league at 4.5, and that wager is juiced towards the under. Arizona is also expected to be an underdog in all 17 games this season, so they could be looking at a historically bad year.

That’s particularly true without Kyler Murray.

Murray will start the year on the PUP list, which means that he’ll miss at least the first four games. He could be out even longer than that, and there’s a legit chance that Murray might not suit up at all in 2023.

The Cardinals could have two premium first-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, so it’s in their best interest to lose games.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) is carted off after an injury against the New England Patriots during the first quarter at State Farm Stadium on Dec. 12, 2022. Nfl Cardinals Patriots 1213 New England Patriots At Arizona Cardinals Photo Credit: Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Making matters worse, the team released veteran Colt McCoy, who has operated as their starter for most of the offseason. With him out of the picture, either fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune or newly-acquired Joshua Dobbs will start for Arizona, and neither should inspire confidence.

From a Week 1 perspective, Tune would be the more appealing option for Commanders’ backers. Rookie QBs notoriously struggle early in the year, winning less than 27% of their games in the first four weeks over the past five seasons. Most of the QBs in that sample also have a much more impressive pedigree than Tune, so his learning curve could be really steep.

Washington also had one of the best pass rushes in the league two years ago, and with a healthy Chase Young back in the fold, they could return to that level in 2023.

Ultimately, I would be hesitant to lay seven points with a mediocre squad like the Commanders against Dobbs, who at least has some experience starting at the NFL level.

But if Tune gets the nod? Sign me up to bet on Washington even at this key number of 7.0.

- Matt LaMarca

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5
Current Line: Falcons -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)

The Falcons are another team that has received some buzz this preseason. A lot of that stems from their weak division, which lacks a top-end team.

The Falcons and Saints also have the two easiest schedules in the league by a pretty comfortable margin in 2023:

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule

Like the Commanders, the Falcons will also be turning things over to a second-year QB this season. Unlike Howell though, Desmond Ridder did get multiple starts as a rookie.

While Ridder wasn’t particularly impressive, averaging just 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt, he at least got some of the inevitable growing pains out of the way.

Ridder played on just one drive this preseason, and it ultimately ended in an INT. That said, there were still some positive takeaways. After all, that lone preseason drive traversed 78 yards before ultimately stalling near the goal line.

Atlanta also has a bunch of blue-chip players surrounding Ridder on offense. Guys like Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts are among the most athletic players in the league at their respective positions, and Drake Landon has the makings of a true No. 1 WR. All that supporting talent should make Ridder’s job a bit easier.

On the other side of this matchup, the Panthers are at the very start of a rebuild.

They spent the No. 1 overall pick on Bryce Young, who will make his first professional start against the Falcons.

Expect him to get off to a bumpy start. Over the past five years, rookie QBs have come out of the gates slowly:

Weeks 1-4: 10-29 record, -0.11 EPA/attempt
Weeks 12+: 59-69 record, -0.05 EPA/attempt

Young doesn’t have nearly the same caliber of supporting cast as Ridder, and the money has been all over Atlanta in this spot. They’ve received only 57% of the spread bets, but they’ve accounted for 88% of the dollars.

This spread has already reached 4.0 at some locations, so it could continue to rise as we get closer to kickoff.

- Matt LaMarca

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening Line: 49ers -3.0
Current Line: 49ers -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)

This is one of the most interesting matchups of Week 1.

While the line hasn’t budged much since opening at -3.0, the 0.5-point move down from 3.0 to 2.5 is significant. This shift makes the 49ers, who are currently fifth in Super Bowl odds at +1000, a more attractive wager.

The Steelers were one of the biggest stories this preseason, as their first-team offense made splash plays every time they stepped on the field. The highlight reels will show you Jaylen Warren and George Pickens busting off big gains, but the biggest story was the maturation of Kenny Pickett.

Pickett went 9-11 for 112 yards and two TDs in three very limited appearances and was the highest-graded quarterback this preseason per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Pittsburgh seems primed for a jump forward this year, but where things get really interesting is on the San Francisco side of the ball. The assumption is that the 49ers will again be an elite team in 2023, but when you start to look closely at the foundation, they don’t look as sturdy as they have in years past.

Brock Purdy's recovery from UCL surgery has gone as well as it possibly could have, but the team no longer has a Jimmy Garoppolo safety net if Purdy were to miss time.

On top of that, San Francisco lost two key pieces of their offensive line this offseason. They also have a new defensive coordinator in Steve Wilks, who has been either a head coach or defensive coordinator in the NFL or at the college level since 2018. All of those teams that Wilks was a part of produced losing records.

Even with the line moving under 3.0, we can see that while there are more bets on the 49ers, the handle is nearly even on both sides, suggesting there is far more “sharp” action on the Steelers.

This will undoubtedly be a close game, but taking the points at home for Pittsburgh is shaping up to be the smart move.

Week 1 home underdogs have delivered the last couple of seasons, going a collective 11-6 against the spread in Week 1 since 2021.

Based on the Steelers' strong preseason performances and the early action on this game, they look poised to add to that impressive trend.

- Geoff Ulrich

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.0
Current Line: Cowboys -3.5 (-105, BetMGM)

The Cowboys opened at -2.0, but it didn’t take long for bettors to jump on the Dallas bandwagon and drive this line up past 3.0.

In fact, the money poured in on the Cowboys upon release, with over 80% of the early bets coming their way.

As mentioned above, 3.0 is a key number in NFL betting. With the hook now in play at -3.5, the Dallas action has hit a wall, and the flow has started to shift to the other side.

The Cowboys are still seeing a slightly higher volume of bets, but there's a bigger handle on the Giants at +3.5 as of this writing, and the line has even moved down to 3.0 in places.

BetMGM still has New York at +3.5, but the odds on that line have shifted down to -115.

From a matchup standpoint, I’m not at all shocked by the early action. The thought process on these two teams all last season and into this offseason was that the Cowboys are an elite team while the Giants are not.

Dec 29, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) works against Tennessee Titans guard Dennis Daley (71) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

That kind of groupthink continued into May, when the initial lines opened, but it's perhaps starting to fatigue now that this line has reached 3.5 points. The Dallas love hasn’t killed all the action on their side, but there's been a fair amount of sharp money starting to come in on New York, and for good reason.

Although we may have a good vs. not good coaching matchup in Brian Daboll vs. Mike McCarthy, the Giants' depth chart has gotten several positive jolts this offseason.

New York added speed at WR with Jalin Hyatt via the draft and Parris Campbell via free agency, but more importantly, they added Darren Waller at TE, a true playmaker over the middle of the field who once carried the Raiders offense.

Divisional underdogs have a great record in Week 1, having gone 62-38-2 against the spread since 2005. With this game still hanging on by a thread at +3.5, I’d run to bet this before kickoff.

A late flood of money coming in on New York seems likely, which could push the spread closer, making the Giants a less enticing bet at +2.5 or worse.