NFL Week 10 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — i.e., getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.

The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves.

That’s the goal of this piece — to highlight the bets you should be locking in early, gobbling up as much sweet, sweet CLV as possible.

Let’s take a look at five games that have my eye for Week 10.

Dallas Cowboys (-14.5) vs. New York Giants

Current Line: Cowboys -14.5 (-110; FanDuel)
Opening Line: Cowboys -10.0
Target Range: Cowboys -16.5 or better

It’s officially tanking SZN in New York. I don’t think they’re actually going to try to lose games; they just don’t have the talent to compete on a weekly basis. Such is life when you’re down to your third-string quarterback.

Tyrod Taylor was placed on Injured Reserve earlier this week, but that didn’t seem like a huge deal at the time. After all, Daniel Jones is the team’s starter, and he was set to return vs. the Raiders.

Unfortunately, Jones went down with what is believed to be a serious knee injury in his first game back. That leaves Tommy DeVito as the last man standing.

DeVito wasn’t terrible in relief duty vs. the Raiders, completing 75% of his passes for 175 and a touchdown. However, he added two interceptions, and the team managed just six points against one of the worst defenses in football. DeVito was absolutely horrible after Taylor got injured vs. the Jets two weeks ago, averaging -0.14 adjusted yards per attempt.

Playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in football, DeVito simply has no chance to succeed vs. the Cowboys’ monster pass rush. New York would’ve struggled to score with anyone at quarterback, but the issues are going to be magnified even further now.

Undrafted rookie quarterbacks are not supposed to start at the NFL level, so this could get pretty ugly. This line is already up to -16.0 at some locations, so this number is only going up.

The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing performance vs. the Eagles, so expect them to be fully focused for their division rivals. Dak Prescott is also historically 21-14-1 ATS following a loss, and he’s 25-11 ATS in NFC East showdowns.

I’m locking this in at 14.5 and watching the CLV flow.

You can tail the -14.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place a first bet of at least $5:

Carolina Panthers (+3.0) at Chicago Bears

Current Line: Panthers +3.0 (-110; Caesars)
Opening Line: Panthers +2.0
Target Range: Panthers +3.0

This may be the ugliest Thursday Night Football game of the season, which is saying something. I’m convinced the NFL gives us games like this just to assert their dominance. I imagine Roger Goodell laughing at us in his office and lighting a Cuban cigar with a $100 bill, knowing that we’re going to watch whatever dreck he ends up serving us.

The good news is, I do see some betting value in this matchup.

This game had the Panthers as two-point underdogs on the lookahead line, but the Week 9 performances drove this number to 3.0. The Panthers were massively disappointing against the Colts – Bryce Young did his best Jake Delhomme impression with two pick-sixes – while the Bears played a competitive contest vs. the Saints.

Three is easily the most important number in NFL betting, so getting it in this spot is a big deal.

Historically, grabbing the points between two terrible teams has been the right idea. When two teams with a winning percentage of 25% or lower meet this late in the season, the underdog has gone 30-24-1 ATS since 2005. Road underdogs specifically are 20-15, good for a 13% return on investment over a modest sample size.

Dec 24, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) drops back to pass against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Even though Justin Fields will likely return to the lineup this week, the Bears have been far from good with Fields in the lineup. In fact, they have more covers with Tyson Bagent (2-1 ATS) than they’ve had with Fields (1-4-1 ATS). I’m not saying that the Bears are better with Bagent, but teams are a lot easier to undervalue with their backup QB in the lineup.

I’m only interested in playing Carolina at a field goal or better, so I’m locking this bet in now. I could always lose some value if this gets to 3.5 or 4.0, but the risk of it dropping back to 2.5 outweighs the potential gains.

You can tail Carolina +3.0 at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up for a new account below!

Detroit Lions ML at Los Angeles Chargers

Current Line: Lions -112; FanDuel
Opening Line: Lions +136
Target Range: Lions -120 or better

This line was listed as Lions +3.0 when this line first came out, but it has steadily moved in the Lions’ favor. They’ve been an outstanding team for most of the season, while the Chargers have looked like the Chargers. They’ve dealt with injuries, they’re poorly coached, and they’re just 3-4 heading into a Monday Night Football showdown with the Jets.

I have the Lions as the better team in my power ratings, and they’ll benefit from a massive rest advantage in Week 10. Not only are the Lions coming off a bye, but the Chargers are playing on a short week. Making matters worse, they have to travel across the country after playing in New York, so it’s about as brutal of a spot as possible for LA.

Historically, favorites coming off a bye have gone 193-165-12 ATS since 2005. Dan Campbell is also 3-1 ATS with additional time to prepare for his career, so I expect to see the best from Detroit following their week off.

I’m happy to play the Lions anything better than -120 on the moneyline or -2.0 on the spread. If the Chargers lose to the Jets, the Lions could easily become larger favorites on Tuesday.

You can tail the Lions at FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a bet of $5 or more!

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Current Line: Cardinals +2.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Opening Line: Cardinals +2.5
Target Range: Cardinals Pick’Em or better

The Cards are a squad that Matthew Freedman and I both locked into the NFL Bet Tracker before Week 9. We both thought that the Cardinals should become favored with Kyler Murray back at quarterback, and nothing I saw on Sunday changed my opinion.

The Cardinals predictably got rolled with Clayton Tune at quarterback vs. the Browns. Tune is simply not an NFL-caliber starter, and he was facing arguably the best pass defense in the entire league. Tune responded with just 58 passing yards and two touchdowns, and they didn’t score a single point.

That said, the Falcons performance was arguably just as bad. They lost to a quarterback who didn’t even know his teammates’ names:

Murray is a divisive player, but there’s no doubt he’s the best player to take snaps for the Cardinals this season. The gap in talent between Murray and Tune/Josh Dobbs is massive.

Locking in an early bet at +2.5 isn’t typically advised. Waiting to potentially get a +3.0 is worth the risk of the line dipping closer to zero.

However, there is almost no chance this number gets to three, so I want to get as many points as possible with Arizona.

You can tail the Cardinals at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of $5 or more below!

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Under 39.5

Current Total: Under 39.5 (-110; BetMGM)
Opening Total: 44.0
Target Range: Under 38.5 or better

These AFC North battles are typically a massive struggle for points. The under is 18-11 in AFC North showdowns since the start of 2020, and these two teams combined for just 31 points in their first matchup this season. That game featured Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB for the Browns, but it was still a comfortable under.

DeShaun Watson should be under-center for the Browns this time, but the Browns haven’t exactly been a juggernaut offensively with their starting QB. Watson is merely 22nd out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite.

Their offense is going to have their hands full with the Ravens, who have been elite defensively this season. They’re second in EPA/play defensively, and they just limited a strong Seattle offense to six points at home.

The Ravens’ offense has been far more successful than the Browns, but Cleveland is first in EPA/play defensively.

This number has already come down a bit, and I think it will close even lower. I’m locking it in now.

You can tail the under at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting today.

NFL Week 10 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

Dallas Cowboys (-14.5) vs. New York Giants

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Carolina Panthers (+3.0) at Chicago Bears

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Detroit Lions ML at Los Angeles Chargers

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Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Under 39.5

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