NFL Week 18 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — i.e., getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.

The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves.

That’s the goal of this piece — to highlight the bets you should be locking in early, gobbling up as much sweet, sweet CLV as possible.

Let’s take a look at five games that have my eye for Week 16.

Texans (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Current Line: Texans +1.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Target Range: Texans -2.5 or better

The Texans righted the ship last week. C.J. Stroud – who missed two games with a concussion – was as effective as ever, completing 75% of passes in a romp over the Titans.

The Texans also ran the ball well with Devin Singletary, who averaged over 4.5 yards per carry for the fourth game in a row. It’s a significant development, considering that they were one of the worst rushing offenses in the league through the first half of the year.

Dec 31, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) attempts a pass during the third quarter against the Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts also managed a win and now sit at 9-7, tied with Houston and Jacksonville for the division lead (the Jaguars own the tiebreaker). The Colts got a lead against the Raiders and held on late against a limited offense. A win is a win, but there were some concerning signs from the Colts defense. They allowed Davante Adams to get loose for two TDs and multiple big plays, while fifth-round rookie Aiden O’Connell made some key conversions down the stretch.

Both teams have rookie head coaches and some holes on defense that the other team can exploit. Houston’s offense is much more potent with Stroud back and ranks 13th in offensive DVOA. The Colts aren’t terrible in that aspect either (18th in offensive DVOA), but the edge at QB with Stroud (12th in EPA per play) vs. Gardner Minshew (20th in EPA per play) is a big one to exploit for betting.

Ultimately, I trust the Texans (specifically Stroud) more in this spot to do a better job of taking advantage of their edges.

Houston’s passing offense matches up well with a limited secondary that is 27th in yards per attempt over their last three games. Getting Will Anderson Jr. back last week was also huge for their rush defense, which just completely shut down Derrick Henry.

Grabbing the Texans early in the week makes a ton of sense for betting, too. There’s almost no chance the Colts move to three-point favorites with Stroud healthy, but there is certainly the chance the line moves in Houston’s favor.

I won’t be shocked if we see a complete flip, with Houston closing at -2.0 or higher. I’d still play them at anything better than -3.0, but grabbing the Texans early as underdogs is one of my favorite spots of the week.

You can tail the Texans at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers Over 44.0

Current Line: 44.0 (-110; FanDuel)
Target Range: 46.0 or higher

The Rams secondary is a concern. Last week, they allowed 7.9 yards per attempt and 319 yards to backup Tyrod Taylor, a QB who had one 300-yard game in 90 previous career appearances. Los Angeles overcame this deficiency (again) thanks to an elite offense that is fourth in dropback EPA since Week 10, but they turned what could have been an easy win into a nail-biting, high-scoring affair for the third straight week.

Los Angeles now ranks 19th in points allowed (22.1 per game) and has allowed an average of 26.0 points per game over their last four contests – a stretch that includes two games against bottom-10 offenses in the Giants and Commanders. Overall, the previous six Rams games have all featured final totals of 48 points or more and, over this stretch, have averaged an incredible 54.2 points per game.

It’s hard to see this trend stopping in Week 18 vs. the 49ers. San Francisco remains a juggernaut on offense and still dropped 27 points on the Commanders despite Christian McCaffrey (ankle) getting banged up. Backup Elijah Mitchell averaged a solid 4.7 yards per carry in relief, and QB Brock Purdy (78% completion rate, 8.2 yards per attempt) bounced back nicely as well.

For betting, it’s hard not to be excited about betting the over at this low opening total of 44.0.

We have two elite offensive coaches and a defense in the Rams who allow plenty of big plays. Further, while the 49ers are certainly a little more capable defensively than Los Angeles, they have been dealing with critical injuries on the defensive side of late and allowed 33 points and 29 points in back-to-back weeks against Arizona and Baltimore.

This total looks set to rise as the week goes on, and people become a little more aware of how flimsy this Rams secondary has been – and how good they have been for over bettors.

I’d play the over in this game up to 45.5, and it’s undoubtedly one of my favorite early totals to jump on for Week 18. Weather and injury issues can always be a factor, but I won’t be shocked if this one closes closer to 50.0 than its opening mark of 44.0.

You can tail the over at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more!

Chicago Bears (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers

Current Line: Bears +2.5 (-110; FanDuel)
Target Range: Bears -2.5 or better

I’m writing this before the Packers Week 17 meeting with the Vikings, but the outcome in that game isn’t likely to change my mind much about this spot for the Bears. The Packers are a solid young team but are dealing with a slew of injuries on defense. They have already lost CBs Jaire Alexander (suspension), Rasul Douglas (trade), and CB Eric Stokes (hamstring) for the Vikings game. The fact that he didn’t practice last week doesn't bode well for his Week 18 status, either.

Safety Darnell Savage and LBs De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker all remain banged up and have been unable to practice in full the last two weeks. It’s hardly a good setup for a below-average defense about to host a dynamic QB/WR combo in Justin Fields and DJ Moore. Fields has run for 129 yards (7.16 yards per carry) and two TDs over his last two games, while Moore dismantled what was supposed to be a solid secondary in Atlanta for a 9-159-1 line.

Dec 31, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) rushes the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

And even if Jordan Love continues his hot stretch and helps the Packers beat the Vikings, he’ll be up against the buzzsaw Bears defense in Week 18.

Chicago won for the third time in four starts, dismantling the Falcons defense and holding Atlanta’s starter Taylor Heinicke to a 39% completion rate. That kind of domination is unheard of in the NFL when it comes to passing efficiency. It’s become somewhat of a regular thing for the Bears, who feature elite corners and a secondary that creates turnovers (they lead the league with 22 INTs on the year) at the same rate the American consumer creates credit card debt.

Every metric screams that Chicago should be the favorite in this spot, and as the week progresses, I expect the market will come to the same conclusion.

As much as I love Love and how he’s progressed this season, it’s a lot to ask him to overcome a trending Bears defense while also having to watch his defense get gouged repeatedly by Fields and Moore.

This line has already moved a touch after opening at Bears +2.5, and if there is some kind of key injury to the Packers on Sunday Night Football, we could even see the Bears close at -3.0. Getting on the Bears while underdogs is ideal, but I would play this at Bears -2.0 or lower.

The Bears have been great for bettors of late (5-0-1 ATS over their last six games) and have no reason to stop playing hard, given the uncertain futures ahead for Fields and head coach Matt Eberflus.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Under 42.5

Current Line: 42.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Target Range: Under 41.0 or better

The Saints gave themselves a shot at winning the NFC South last week by dismantling the Buccaneers. The Bucs can still win the NFC South with a win over the Panthers, but it’s at least giving the Saints a fighting shot to make the postseason. It should have them amped for this game against Atlanta, a team who could only muster 163 passing yards last week against Chicago – 75 of which came on one screen pass to Tyler Allgeier.

Atlanta will likely want nothing more than to run the ball 30+ times after Taylor Heinicke went 10 for 29 and 169 yards (with three INTs) against the Bears. New Orleans will likely lean towards playing it safe in such a crucial spot and rely on their defense (ninth in EPA per dropback and ninth in EPA per rush) to come up with big plays, much like they did against the Buccaneers.

It should lead to a dull and close game where points are at a premium, making the opening total of 42.5 look exceedingly high.

Matchup aside, both of these teams have been great under targets this season. Atlanta is 10-6 to the under for the year, while the Saints are 11-5 to the under. The Saints' defense has also held three of their last four opponents under 14 points.

I like the under in this spot quite a bit and think there is a minimal chance it will rise from its current number. More likely is that it falls to start the week and keeps falling.

While it may not close below 40.0, there’s a chance it closes under 41.0, making an early week bet on the under an exceptional one from a potential CLV perspective.