NFL Week 2 Best Bets. Spreads, Totals, Moneylines, and Props to Bet.
Geoff Ulrich highlights some of the best bets for Week 2 of the NFL season, including props, spreads, and totals.
Welcome to the week 2 best bets article.
Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker. Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below.
I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up.
If you want more, be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s best bets article and the Fantasy Life bet tracker afterward.
Week 1 was full of ups and downs. A couple of the spread bets got killed (RIP Giants), but the underdog came through as a winner as Jimmy Garoppolo improved on his already stellar career record as an underdog and also got more handsome somehow.
Just like last week, I’ve broken down the best bets into a few different categories, and much like Jigsaw did in the Saw decemvirate, in some places I’ve also included a game within a game, or a bet within a bet.
Some suggestions include alternate lines to look for, player props to back or fade, or other ways to play a line or game.
Let’s hop in and get primed for a big Sunday…
Spread: Chicago Bears +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-115, BetMGM)
This is a spread everyone at Fantasy Life seems to agree wholeheartedly on, to the point we all bet it in the bet tracker before it fell to Bears +2.5. This of course has me worried (but not worried enough not to bet it).
The Bears were one of the most disappointing teams of week 1, but when you look at their performance in a vacuum, it wasn’t nearly as bad as some of the other stinkers that we saw on the first Sunday of the year.
Chicago was within a score of Green Bay for much of the game before perennial Pro-Bowler and badass Aaron Jones took over with a 35-yard catch-and-run for a TD. Jones also had another 51-yard catch that resulted in a Green Bay TD, and he accounted for 35% of the Packers' total passing game offense.
Otherwise, Chicago contained Green Bay to a degree and certainly had their chances on offense—but were terrible in the red zone and forgot they traded for DJ Moore (2-25) in the offseason.
Tampa Bay managed to squeak by Minnesota somehow, but it was one of the luckiest performances of the week. They could have easily been blown out and been home underdogs this week instead.
Betting teams in week 2 that lost by 10 or more points in week 1 has also been profitable. Per BetLabs, teams that lost their opener by more than 10 points are 39-22-1 ATS in week 2. Chicago obviously fits this trend after losing 38-20.
Other game bets: DJ Moore over 43.5 receiving yards against a weak Buccaneers secondary.
Other spreads: Chiefs -3.0, Bengals -3.5
You can tail the spread at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below and start betting today!
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Moneyline: Saints -156 at Panthers (FanDuel)
This was a line I bet last week at -1.0/-1.5 before it predictably moved to -3.0. The Saints aren’t perfect, but they are a far more complete team than the Panthers, who averaged 3.34 yards per pass attempt against an average secondary/pass rush in week 1.
Derek Carr also played terrific in his Saints debut. He was one of the most pressured quarterbacks of week 1 but still posted the fifth-highest EPA per play among all week 1 starters. He’ll take on another tough defensive front in Carolina, but it’s a defense that also just lost arguably its best player in CB Jaycee Horn.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws the ball in the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La., Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023.
To be honest, the Saints may just need Carr to be average in this game. Their secondary was smothering last week, holding DeAndre Hopkins to a 53% catch rate and picking off the normally conservative Ryan Tannehill three times.
The Saints' receivers should have a field day, but there are multiple paths to victory for New Orleans, who still looks undervalued relative to other week 1 winners.
Other bets: Chris Olave 100+ yards and a TD, Bryce Young INT
You can tail these bets on FanDuel, where if you bet $5, you can get $200 in bonus bets PLUS $100 off of NFL Sunday Ticket when you sign up below!
Total: Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders under 39.5 (-114, FanDuel)
So much for Sean Payton bringing some kind of high-energy offense to Denver. The Broncos averaged 5.2 yards per attempt and mostly targeted their running backs in a slow-moving offense in week 1.
The Commanders actually showed a little more willingness to go downfield, but Sam Howell also posted a -0.163 EPA per play rating in week 1—against the worst team in the league in Arizona.
The thin air in Denver also typically makes unders a great target when they play at home. Since 2019, games played at Mile High have a 20-14 record to the under.
Other plays: Russell Wilson under 227.5 passing yards
You can tail these bets on FanDuel, where if you bet $5, you can get $200 in bonus bets PLUS $100 off of NFL Sunday Ticket when you sign up below!
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Prop: Nico Collins over 48.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
This prop opened in the 45.5-yard range, but it has quickly jumped as bettors obviously believe there is value in going over on a player who went for 80 yards in week 1. The stats support this argument.
Per the Fantasy Life Utilization report, Collins had a 26% target share despite having just a 72% route participation rate. He should run more routes in week 2 with Noah Brown (76% route participation rate in week 1) having been placed on IR.
Collins’s 64% air yards share from week 1 is also extremely encouraging, and the fact that he’s going against a Colts secondary that allowed the seventh-worst yards per attempt against also makes him a good milestone/alternative line bet at 75+ (+285, DraftKings) or 100+ (+750, DraftKings) yards.
Prop: Anthony Richardson under 197.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)
Despite the week 1 loss, the Texans' defense showcased itself quite well against an elite quarterback in Lamar Jackson. Jackson had a solid completion percentage, but a lot of his yards were made after the catch by Zay Flowers, JK Dobbins, and Rashod Bateman.
The Colts don’t have as athletic a crew of WRs or as creative a passing game as the Ravens.
Additionally, Anthony Richardson had the highest rate of designed runs called of any QB in week 1 at 27%. This passing total also projects as a strong under on Fantasy Life, where Richardson is projected for well under 190.0 passing yards this week.
You can tail the under at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below and start betting today!
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