NFL Week 3 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

Two down, 16 to go.

The regular season always seems to fly by, and we’re already done with the first two Sundays. I’m not trying to depress you, but it’s the truth.

Fortunately, that still leaves us plenty of time to look at value in the betting market.

Let’s dive into some of the biggest sportsbook adjustments heading into Week 3.

The Cowboys are a Wagon

It’s hard to look much more impressive than the Cowboys have to start the year.

They dismantled the Giants 40-0 on the road in Week 1 — a playoff squad from 2022 — and they followed that up with a 20-point victory over the Jets. Their average margin of victory now sits at 30 points, which is easily the top mark in football.

When the futures market reopens, it wouldn’t shock me if they’ve overtaken the Eagles as the favorites to win the NFC East.

Of course, the Cowboys haven’t exactly faced a who’s who of competition. The Giants may have been a playoff team last season, but they’re not in the same ballpark as the Cowboys from a talent perspective.

The Jets have Zach Wilson at quarterback. I don’t need to tell you how that went:

It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys fare when the competition level gets cranked up a bit, but that’s not going to happen in Week 3. They’ll head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals, who are widely considered the worst team in football.

The look-ahead line on this game was Cowboys -7.0, but that is long in the past. This line is well into double-digits, settling at 12.5 at some locations.

On paper, that’s a ton of points. If we’re giving the Cardinals 1.5 points for home-field advantage, it suggests that the Cowboys are 14 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field.

That feels like it’s probably too much, but does anyone have the guts to actually back Joshua Dobbs against this pass rush? I know I don’t.

The public will certainly be on the Cowboys in this matchup, regardless of how high the line gets. If the sharps don’t show any interest in the Cardinals, this spread could easily eclipse two touchdowns.

The Bears… Not a Wagon

I’m willing to take the L on the Bears.

If you squinted really hard this offseason — I mean really hard — you could see a potential breakout. Justin Fields was a first-round pick with an excellent pedigree, and the team just gave him a legit weapon in D.J. Moore.

The team also had the most cap space in the league entering free agency, so it didn’t seem that far-fetched that they could contend in a weak NFC North.

Since then, everything has gone wrong.

The Bears didn’t exactly splurge in free agency, leaving the defense with plenty of holes. It also seems as though Fields is not going to make the leap. He remains one of the best athletes in the NFL, but he’s made zero strides as a passer. He averaged just 5.2 adjusted yards per attempt in Week 1 vs. the Packers, and he followed that up with two interceptions in Week 2.

His late pick-six was a backbreaker for anyone who had the Bears at +3.0 (like myself):

Unsurprisingly, the Bears are getting no respect from the sportsbooks heading into a matchup vs. the Chiefs. They were +9.5 on the lookahead line, but they’re all the way up to +12.5.

Like the Cardinals, if the sharps don’t have any interest in the Bears in this spot, this number could get out of hand.

Concern over Burrow in Cincinnati?

The Rams converted one of the most unreal backdoor covers in recent times on Sunday, kicking a field goal as time expired to drop the margin from 10 to seven:

That was… an interesting decision to say the least.

Regardless, the cover brings the Rams to 2-0 against the spread for the year. Matthew Stafford wasn’t quite as impressive as he was in Week 1, tossing two interceptions, but he continues to remind everyone that he’s an excellent quarterback when healthy. Even without Cooper Kupp, the Rams’ offense has had no trouble moving the ball against the Seahawks and 49ers.

Will the public start to show the Rams some love in the betting market? It’s possible.

Nov 20, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) signals a play in the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

That said, the big story in this matchup revolves around the Bengals. Not only have they struggled to move the ball this season, but there are also some concerns about the health of their quarterback.

Joe Burrow admitted that he tweaked his calf against the Ravens, creating some doubt about his availability in Week 3:

This has unsurprisingly had a huge impact on the spread.

This number is down to Bengals -3.5 across the industry, which creates a unique dilemma for bettors.

If he plays, this number will likely revert back to where it was at opening. That would make the Bengals roughly seven-point favorites.

If Burrow is out, this number will continue to move towards the Rams. Burrow is probably worth at least six points to the spread, making this number much closer to a pick ‘em.

So, how should you approach this? Unfortunately, if you didn’t grab the Rams at +6.5, I think you’re too late. There’s not a ton of value with the current number, even if Burrow ultimately sits.

At this point, we’re going to have to play the waiting game. Buckle up and enjoy the ride.

You can track the line movement throughout the week on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below and start betting today!

Did the Giants Turn Things Around?

The Giants' start to the season would make the Bengals feel good about themselves.

After losing 40-0 in Week 1, they put themselves in a 20-0 hole at halftime against the Cardinals. Overall, they were down nearly three touchdowns to the worst team in the league and had yet to put a single point on the scoreboard.

Brian Daboll must’ve given one heck of a halftime speech, because they looked like a completely different team after intermission.

They battled back to erase a 28-7 deficit, ultimately securing a 3-point win. That wasn’t enough to cover the spread, but they finally looked like the team they were expected to be this offseason.

The question is — was it a fluke or can they do it again?

This was the second week in a row where the Cardinals blew a halftime lead. We know their management doesn’t really care if they win games this season. They made that clear when they traded their first-round pick in 2022 for the Texans’ first-rounder in 2023.

Was the Giants’ comeback more about the Cardinals taking their foot off the gas?

We’ll find out on Thursday. The Giants have a short week before taking on the 49ers in San Francisco, and the team is wisely staying on the West Coast instead of traveling back to New York.

Unfortunately, the team could be down Saquon Barkley, who suffered what appeared to be a significant injury:

This is another line that has seen significant movement compared to the lookahead. The 49ers opened as just 6-point favorites, but they’re already up to 10.5 at some locations.

After a week with lots of short spreads, we’re going to have no shortage of big favorites in Week 3.

The Broncos are in Trouble

I wouldn’t say expectations were particularly high for the Broncos this season, but there was anticipation about how the team would fare with a new head coach. Sean Payton had tons of success during his tenure with the Saints, so there was hope he’d be able to turn things around.

If the games were only 30 minutes, he’d be off to a great start.

The team held a 3-point lead at halftime against the Raiders in Week 1, and they were up 21-3 early in the second quarter in Week 2 vs. the Commanders.

Unfortunately, the team has been outplayed over the final 30 minutes in both contests, resulting in an 0-2 record.

There are some positives.

Russell Wilson has looked significantly better than he did at any point last season, tossing for 308 yards and three scores on Sunday. A good chunk of that figure came from a fluky Hail Mary, but it counts toward his year-end stats nonetheless.

The bigger problem was the defense. They simply couldn’t stop the Commanders in the second half. Washington scored a touchdown on three of their five second-half drives, and they also had a missed field goal.

The only time they were able to get the Commanders off the field easily was with less than two minutes to go and the team was only trying to kill the clock.

They’ll take on the Dolphins in Miami in Week 3, and this line is already up to 6. If the Dolphins impress on Sunday Night Football, I could easily see it getting to a full touchdown.

At this point, it doesn’t matter if the ghost of Curly Lambeau coaches this team; it’s hard to see them putting it together.