One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as closing line value—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.

So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.

With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 2 and look for some opportunities to find value.

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Minnesota Vikings (+3.0) vs. Houston Texans

• Current Line: -118; FanDuel
• Bet To: +3.0 (-120)

All aboard the Vikings bandwagon. Their Week 1 victory over the Giants might not have moved the needle despite the fact that they played really well. But it’s impossible to ignore what they did to the 49ers in Week 2. 

They managed to win the game outright as underdogs, and it’s hard to say it wasn’t deserved. They outgained the 49ers, averaged an additional 1.5 yards per play and forced two turnovers. This was the same 49ers team that embarrassed the Jets to open the year and absolutely dominated opponents in 2023.

Sam Darnold continues to look right at home in the Kevin O’Connell offense. He threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while Ty Chandler and Aaron Jones combined for 114 yards on 19 carries. The team didn’t even have No. 2 receiver Jordan Addison available vs. the 49ers, yet they still managed to take care of business.

Ultimately, I’m not sure there was a more undervalued team this offseason than the Vikings. I’m guilty of overlooking them myself, and they’re already nearly one-third of the way toward beating their preseason win total.

If they can pull off an upset over the 49ers, why can’t they do it again vs. the Texans? Houston is an up and coming young squad, but they’re not quite in the 49ers’ weight class just yet.

The only real concern here is that Justin Jefferson left Sunday’s game with an injury. However, he seemed pretty unworried after the game, so I’d tentatively expect him to be in the lineup.

I want to make sure I can lock in the full field goal with the Vikings at home, and I’m willing to pay up to -120 to get it done.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions

• Current Line: -115; DraftKings
• Bet To: +3.0 (+100)

Week 2 was a banner week for underdogs. They went 8-5 ATS on the main slate — possibly better, depending on what numbers you took for teams like the Giants and Cardinals — and a few big dogs won outright. The Raiders managed to knock off the Ravens as the biggest dogs of the week, while the Buccaneers and Saints both won outright as nearly touchdown underdogs.

I’m expecting the dogs to continue barking in Week 3, and the Cardinals are another team that stands out as undervalued.

Arizona’s defense is still a major question mark, but with a healthy Kyler Murray, they’re going to be an excellent offensive team. They were top-10 in EPA/play with Murray in the lineup last season, and they’ve now scored 28 and 41 points in two games this year.

Their offense should be able to go toe to toe with the Lions in Arizona. Detroit managed to get across the finish line in overtime vs. the Rams in Week 1 — the same team the Cardinals just beat by 31 points — but they were unable to survive in Week 2. They put up 463 yards of total offense yet somehow managed to put just 16 points on the scoreboard.

I don’t think the Lions are all of a sudden a bad team, but asking them to go into Arizona and win is easier said than done. This is another line that I’m locking into our Bet Tracker early at +3.5, but I’d still be willing to play it at +3.0.

Baltimore Ravens (+1.0) at Dallas Cowboys

• Current Line: -115; DraftKings
• Play To: -1.0 (-110)

It’s officially desperation time for the Ravens. Since the playoffs expanded to seven teams in 2020, teams that start the year 0-2 have made the playoffs at just a 4% clip. It’s a small sample size for sure — and they have time to turn things around — but they have to start putting some games into the win column.

Their opening loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City was certainly excusable. They were facing the defending champs in their own building, and they were a toenail away from tying the game at the end of regulation. But losing at home to the Raiders? That’s simply not going to cut it for a team that wants to lift the Lombardi Trophy.

Things aren’t going to get any easier for the Ravens in Week 3, as they’ll have to travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys. Dallas was 8-0 at home in 2023 and 7-1 in 2022, so it’s certainly not going to be a cakewalk.

That said, the Saints just absolutely humbled the Cowboys in Dallas, racking up 35 points in the first half alone. The Saints were not expected to be an offensive juggernaut this season, so the Cowboys might not be as good as expected.

Still, the biggest factor here is the motivation. Teams that start the year 0-2 are historically 64-47-3 ATS when facing a team that has won at least one of their first two games.

It doesn’t matter if you get the Ravens as small underdogs or favorites. I can’t imagine a world in which they’re 0-3 to start the season. Expect them to pick up a win in this spot.

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