NFL Week 6 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

As you are reading this, Week 5 is mostly in the books. It’s always good to give yourself a break and take some time to reevaluate things after 10-plus games and a long Sunday of television watching — and let’s not forget we still have the Packers at Raiders to look forward to on Monday Night football.

However, with NFL betting lines being so sharp, one of the biggest advantages you can gain as a bettor is to try and grab some lookahead CLV (closing line value) before big moves happen later in the week.

Last week we saw good lookahead/buy-early opportunities with numerous teams. The Vikings opened around +5.5 (closed at +3.5), and the Jets opened at +3.0 (closed at +2.0). The Dolphins were another team that offered good CLV to early-week investors as they opened at -9.5 but closed around -12.5 at many books. It didn’t hurt that the Dolphins ultimately covered for their early investors, either (although that won’t always be the case).

Regardless of the outcomes of those games (again, this is being written before the games finish on Sunday) it’s a great feeling as a bettor to be ahead of the market when it closes on a game.

As a rule, it’s never too early to start working on next week, and grabbing lines before the sharps get to them is always a good idea.

With that in mind, here are five early Week 6 lines to look at and potentially grab before the spreads or totals shift dramatically later in the week.

Keep buying low on the Jets?

We just saw the Jets in a very similar situation two weeks ago — at home against an elite team in the Chiefs. Not only did the Jets cover in that matchup (they were +9.5 underdogs) but they almost won the game outright.

While this line seems to be giving them more respect (opened at +6.5), most power ratings at this point in the year have the Eagles ranked below the Chiefs, which means the line is almost valuing the Jets the same way the market did prior to that game against the Chiefs. Additionally, the Eagles nearly lost a Week 4 game to the Commanders — who were exposed in disgusting ways on Thursday Night Football in Week 5.

Philadelphia’s offense looks pretty similar on paper to what we saw last season, but their defense has shown cracks (16th in yards per pass attempt). Last week they were also dealing with several injuries, and if those continue to hamper them into next week they could be in a tough spot on the road, where starting QB Jalen Hurts is just 8-13 ATS for his career.

How this line closes in Week 6 will likely depend on how these teams perform in the afternoon slate in Week 5. If the Jets lose to Denver (and Zach Wilson reverts to turning the ball over multiple times) this line could move past the key number of 7.0 in the Eagles' favor. However, even in that “Jets-loss scenario” bettors may be too scared of a banged up Eagles defense to take it past -6.5.

The reverse side of that argument is that if Wilson looks good, and the Jets win, this line could move toward 4.5 fast — especially if the Rams play the Eagles tight.

Either way, the reward of investing in New York early in the week at anything above +5.0 looks like it may pay dividends. This is still a team with an elite defense that has proven it can play elite teams close, especially at home.

Play for a low scoring game in London

The total for this game is one that stuck out to me immediately upon first glance. Baltimore has been an under machine during the Lamar Jackson/Jim Harbaugh era, with the team going 35-22 to the under since 2020 — they were also 3-1 to the under entering Week 5.

Both defenses rank inside the top 12 in overall defensive DVOA, and the Ravens as a squad have been getting much healthier of late (Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams are both back as of Week 5).

Dec 24, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey (44) celebrates with safety Kyle Hamilton (14) after a tackle during the first half against the Atlanta Falcons at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

You also have a pretty one-dimensional Tennessee offense (26th in offensive DVOA) that will be trying to run the ball against a Ravens rush defense that is eighth in yards per carry against (3.8 ypc). On the Baltimore side, despite all the talk about the Ravens wanting to play fast and furious with Todd Monken, they are just 16th in plays per game — while the Titans are 30th.

In short, this has all the makings of an ugly, slow game (and one I will likely not wake up to watch). The overseas factor can always throw a screw into these kinds of matchups, but we enter this year’s third overseas game on a mini-under heater with the last three London games going well under their totals.

This line opened at 42.0 (so it’s already moved towards the under), and as we get closer to game time I would fully expect to see the O/U potentially dip under 40.0. As of now, there are only a few books that have 41.0 totals up, and I would expect those will dry up quickly Monday morning. This game looks like a solid under play and one that I would likely want to grab at anything above 40.0.

Buy into the Browns

One of the first lines that jumped out to me when looking ahead this week was the fact the Browns were getting +3.0 points at home — while also coming off a bye. Yes, they are playing one of the top teams in the NFL in San Francisco, but the Browns have been an absolute nightmare for opposing teams to this point.

Cleveland ranks second in pressure rate, and they have a +41 point differential in the three games Deshaun Watson has started. The Browns have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry against to this point in the year and should be able to do the one thing most 49ers opponents have not been able to accomplish to date, which is hold up Christian McCaffrey. It is possible we get some late Brock Purdy magic that helps San Francisco grab the road win, but Cleveland certainly feels like the team that is undervalued right now.

Obviously, what happens on Sunday Night Football will affect this line as well. If the 49ers fall to Dallas you could see a move under 3.0 — potentially as early as Sunday Night depending on the score to that game.

But, if San Francisco takes down a legit powerhouse in Dallas, many people will be moving them up to the top spot in their power rankings — with 49ers euphoria potentially even giving us a shot at CLE +3.5 or better.

Wait to see how the SNF game plays out, but reacting quickly and taking Cleveland (at +3.0 or better) feels like a great lookahead play for Week 6.

Keep fading the Patriots (and Mac Jones)

The Patriots have been pretty easy to figure in the Mac Jones era. If they are favorites you MIGHT get a decent game from Jones, who was 12-7-1 ATS as a favorite before Week 5. If they are underdogs, stay away. Stay far away. Jones is 3-13 ATS for his career as an underdog.

As of writing, the Patriots were being steamrolled by the Saints, so there is a chance all this Jones talk is irrelevant and we’ll see Bailey Zappe in Week 6. I’m not sure that switch would change my mind on this game much, but it could cause bettors to take a swing with the Patriots at some point.

The Raiders have their own flaws, but this is a great spot for Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh McDaniels to stick it to the franchise who deemed both of them unworthy of being long-term options at their various positions (McDaniels has way less gripe, obviously, but still).

As of now, the Patriots enter this game as +1.0 underdogs on the lookahead line. Expect this spread to move fast and furious Monday — I would not be shocked if we saw the Raiders as -3.0 favorites or higher if they knock off the Packers (whom they are favored to beat).

Either way, New England will/should enter this game as underdogs, which has been a terrible spot to back them since Tom Brady left.

Jumping on the Raiders quickly Monday could provide good closing line value if you can get them at under 3.0.

Watch the weather in Chicago

Chicago enters this game in rarified territory in terms of totals. They have gone 5-0 to the over through five weeks and feature a bottom-three defense in most advanced metrics over that span (31st in overall defensive DVOA).

With Minnesota on tap, this looks like the classic, “pound the over till your fingers bleed” kind of spot. While it feels dirty to go against this Bears over trend, I would advise a little caution here. This game is taking place in Chicago, and with September now behind us we do have to be somewhat aware of what the weather is doing.

Full disclosure: I am not a meteorologist. However, I do know that people smarter than me have deduced that once we approach certain levels of wind speed, both passing efficiency and FG efficiency can be greatly affected.

We are a long way out but, as of now, the forecast for next week in Chicago looks a little iffy.

Chicago Weather

The rain is expected to clear in the afternoon, but winds are also expected to average around 17 mph on Sunday and tend to rise in the afternoon. This total opened at 48.5 and a couple of sportsbooks have now posted totals of 49.5. I’d wait to see if Minnesota and Kansas City combine for a big day of points — which may cause this line to pop above 50.0 — and then short it.

I would not be shocked if the total stayed frozen mid-week around 48-49, either, as weather tends to get less publicity early in the week.

If you check Tuesday morning and the weather in Chicago still looks poor for next Sunday, taking an under at the best total available (preferably 48.5 or higher) may offer really good CLV once Sunday rolls around.

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