NFL Week 8 Best Bets. Spreads, Totals, Moneylines, and Props to Bet.
Geoff Ulrich highlights some of the best bets for Week 8 of the NFL season, including props, spreads, and totals.
Welcome to the Week 8 best bets article.
Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.
Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below.
I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up.
If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.
Seahawks -3.5 (-110, PointsBet)
- Play to: Seahawks -4.5 (-110)
Having now played in a couple of closer games after their bye week, this seems like a great spot for the Seahawks to start hitting their stride. Seattle’s defense lagged a bit to start the year, but they have been one of the best units in the league over the last few weeks. They’re up to fifth in sacks (despite playing one fewer game) and over their last three weeks have allowed just 4.1 yards per attempt against (best in the league).
On the other side, the Browns feature the number one rated defense in terms of DVOA but were lucky to escape with wins in each of their last two games—and also ceded 484 yards and five TDs to the Colts' backup QB last week.
QB PJ Walker is set to start again for Cleveland (Deshaun Watson – out) and has averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, had a 50% completion rate, and thrown 3 INTs (and no TDs) in the last two games. Add in the Browns' mounting injury issues (Deshaun Watson – out, plus Jerome Ford (ankle), WR Marquise Goodwin (back), RB Kareem Hunt (thigh), TE David Njoku (knee), and LB Sione Takitaki (hamstring) all questionable) and this may be a perfect storm for a Seahawks romp.
I bet this game earlier in the week in our free bet tracker at -2.5 but would feel good about playing it up to -4.5 (-110). You may even look to an alternative line (Seahawks -6.5, +135) or use the Seahawks moneyline odds (-205) in a parlay (if you’re into those kinds of things).
You can tail the Seahawks on PointsBet, where you can get 10 Second Chance bets of up to $100 when you sign up for a new account below!
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Teaser: Bengals +3.5 (up to +9.5) / Steelers +2.5 (up to +8.5) (-120, DraftKings)
Play to: Bengals +2.5 (+8.5) / Steelers +1.5 (+7.5) -120
These are the kinds of spots where we love to target Mike Tomlin-led teams. Per The Action Network, Tomlin is an absurd 16-10 SU and 18-5-3 ATS in the regular season and playoffs for his career. In addition, in 2023 alone the Steelers are 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
While the public may not have a very good impression of this team, the Steelers (perhaps simply from having a head coach/motivational advantage) are likely slightly better than their underlying numbers and current sentiment suggest.
Oct 22, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) throws the ball against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Matchup-wise, I also like this spot a lot better for the Steelers now that Diontae Johnson is back in the fold. Johnson is an elite route runner who made life a lot easier for Kenny Pickett (17-25, 230-0-0) last week, who had his most efficient game of the season to date, completing 68% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt.
Doug Pederson teams have also been much more adept at covering as an underdog than as favorites—Pederson-coached teams are 26-31 ATS as favorites for his career. Buying the points to get us up to +8.5 with a nearly fully healthy Steelers offense seems like a good way to start a teaser card this week.
On our second leg, the Bengals have moved into prime teaser territory after the line in their game against the 49ers moved from +6.0 on open to +3.5 after the Brock Purdy (concussion protocol – questionable) news.
Purdy is unlikely to play, and given the uncertainty with how Sam Darnold is going to look off a short rest week running this offense, getting +9.5 points with a rested Bengals team almost seems too good to be true.
The Bengals' defense is 10th in pressure rating and 7th in passer rating against. There’s a good chance that they either contain Darnold and/or potentially force him into a mistake or two. On the other side, the 49ers rank just 20th in sacks and were exposed in the secondary last week, allowing 8.4 yards per attempt and 378 passing yards to Minnesota.
Off two weeks of rest, backing what should be a 100% healthy Joe Burrow, with a solid +9.5 point cushion, suddenly looks far more appealing than it did in this spot two or three weeks ago.
You can tail the teaser on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets simply by placing an initial bet of $5 or more when you sign up below!
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Bears at Chargers under 46.5 (-110, DraftKings)
The total for this game has moved a little off the open (48.5) but has stayed pretty solidly at 46.5 since Tuesday. Bettors seem to fear the prospect of trusting two poor defenses to keep this game from going over (56% of the bets are to the over as of Thursday), but it’s the offenses that perhaps warrant more concern.
The Bears may have scored 30 points last week, but one of those was a defensive score late in the game and the Bears' offense could only muster 162 yards and averaged under 6.0 yards per attempt under rookie Tyson Bagent. The Chargers' rush defense is much improved this year (3.4 yards per carry against over their last three games) and their pass defense should be able to hone in on DJ Moore and force Bagent to make more difficult throws to other receivers to beat them.
With Chicago’s defense also healthier and Justin Herbert struggling and down one of his best WRs in Mike Williams, the Chargers have averaged just 19.5 points over their last three games. Despite Chicago (6-1 to the over in 2023) being an over machine thus far, that record was achieved mostly with Fields at QB.
It’s a good spot to buy into the fear of two poor defenses facing each off against each other, and fade what look to be two offenses that may struggle to score points.
DeVonta Smith 100+ yards (+650, DraftKings)
- Fantasy Life Aggregate projection: 4.4 rec, 53.9 receiving yards
- Play to: 100+ receiving yards (+600)
Smith’s production with the Eagles may not be as smooth or linear as some had hoped for since entering the league, but he’s also clearly got a ton of big play potential.
Over the last 26 games he’s played for Philadelphia, the third-year player has gone for 100+ yards seven times (26.9% hit rate) but has only breached that 100-yard barrier once in 2023.
There has been a notable shift toward AJ Brown in targeting since Week 2 (Smith 22% target rate, vs Brown 33% target rate) but Smith also comes in with a healthy 32% air yards share and a 13.2 aDOT on the year, which is essentially on par with Brown’s 13.6 aDOT.
In short, there is big play, big game potential with both these receivers every week, and just because the ball has gone more toward Brown of late doesn’t mean we should be writing off Smith. Week 8 also looks like the perfect time to take a shot that the ball starts to find Smith more frequently.
He’s a mammoth +650 on DraftKings to go for 100+ yards (a 13.33% implied probability—far lower than his hit rate over the last 26 games) and he faces Washington. The Commanders' secondary has allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks (second worst in the league) and will likely be hyper-focused on ensuring AJ Brown (9-175-2 against WAS in Week 4) doesn’t clown them again.
Smith himself went for 8-169-1 against the Commanders last season and looks like a great target for alternative line betting in Week 8.
CeeDee Lamb over 65.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Fantasy Life Aggregate projection: 5.5 rec, 74.2 receiving yards
- Play to: 69.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Rams' secondary has outperformed its talent level to date, but there are some cracks forming. Expert route runner Diontae Johnson put up 5-79 (6 targets) on them last week in his return, and they allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt to the Steelers' beleaguered offense.
Enter CeeDee Lamb for Week 8, who is coming off one of if not his best game of the season. Lamb converted all seven of his targets against the Chargers with a 97% route rate and 31% air yards share in the game.
He also averaged 16.7 yards per reception, which was his best mark in that category since Week 1. That’s the kind of usage and production we expect from a WR1 on a team like the Cowboys, who are still top 10 in many power rankings around the league.
Lamb is in another good spot this week, and with a yardage prop that is 5.0 to 7.0 yards lower than what it was last week against the Chargers.
With the Rams' rush defense holding up well (3.8 YPC allowed over their last three games) and their offense likely to help keep this game close, Lamb’s in an ideal spot to see some continuation, from his big Week 6, against the Rams.
You can tail Lamb on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
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