NFL Week 8 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — ie, getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.

The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves. That’s the goal of this piece — to highlight the bets you should be locking in early, gobbling up as much sweet, sweet CLV as possible.

Let’s take a look at five games that have my eye for Week 8.

Houston Texans (-3.0) at Carolina Panthers (-110, DraftKings)

Opening Line: Texans +3
Current Line: Texans -3
Target Range: Texans -3

Both of these squads entered the year with rookie quarterbacks, but they’ve gone in entirely different directions. The Texans haven’t just competed, they’re well in the thick of the playoff race at 3-3. Meanwhile, the Panthers have yet to get in the win column, and they’re a paltry 0-5-1 against the spread. No team has cost bettors more money than the Panthers, even though they’ve played one fewer game than a lot of squads.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that this line has completely flipped. The Panthers were listed as three-point home favorites when this number first came out, but the Texans are now three-point favorites on the road. The Texans have also received an overwhelming amount of the early money, racking up 89% of the tickets and 98% of the dollars (per the Action Network).

You could try to make the case that the Panthers are being undervalued. After all, this line has moved against them by six full points. Teams with zero covers over their six most recent games have also gone 74-61-3 ATS since 2005.

However, do you really want to bet on the Panthers? I know I don’t.

The Texans have an edge in virtually every area. Quarterback? Check. Coaching? Check. Defense? Check. Both teams are also coming off the bye, so they’ll be on equal footing from a rest perspective as well.

With home field growing less important by the year, I think this number only has one direction to go: up. With the money pouring in on the Texans, there’s a far greater chance this gets to 3.5 and beyond than drops below 3.0.

I’m locking the Texans now to avoid missing out on the most important key number in football.

You can tail the Texans on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $200 instantly in bonus bets when you sign up below and place an initial bet of at least $5!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) (-105, DraftKings)

Opening Line: Bills -10
Current Line: Bills -7.5
Target Range: Bills -7.5 or -8.0

Is something going on with the Bills? They’ve now laid their third egg in a row, dropping a game to the Patriots where they were favored by more than a touchdown. They also failed to cover in their previous two contests, losing to the Jaguars in London and playing a tighter than expected game vs. the Giants.

That said, I’m really not that worried.

The Patriots absolutely needed a win on Sunday, and they’re a better team than the public realized. It’s a big reason why the sharps were all over them in Week 7. The Bills were also at a massive disadvantage playing the Jaguars in London after Jacksonville had spent the previous week there, and returning home to play the Giants without a bye was another tough spot.

Personally, I think all three showings are pretty defensible.

Coming into Week 7, the Bills were the No. 2 team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. I could see the Chiefs leaping them for Week 8, but the Bills are still going to be graded as a well-above-average team.

Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws against the New England Patriots during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

On the other side, it seems like the Cinderella story may be ending early in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only lost by three points to the Falcons in Tampa, but that game was not as close as the final score suggests. The Falcons easily could’ve won by double-digits if not for a Desmond Ridder fumble out of the end zone, and they outgained Tampa Bay by more than 70 yards.

Now the Bucs will have to travel into one of the most hostile environments in all of football. Baker Mayfield has been a wonderful story, but his play has fallen off. They remain one of the worst running teams in football, so they need Mayfield to win games with his arm.

With Allen and the Bills pissed off and hungry for a win, I’m happy to back Buffalo at anything less than eight points.

Allen is 2-1-1 on an ATS losing streak of three-plus games – it doesn’t happen very often — covering by an average of 3.5 points. I could see this one getting ugly.

New England Patriots (+10.5) at Miami Dolphins (-110, BetMGM)

Opening Line: Patriots +4
Current Line: Patriots +10.5
Target Range: Patriots +10 or better

The Dolphins are playing at the time of this writing, but we’re going to learn a lot about them on Sunday night. There has been a lot of ink dedicated to their offense, but the reality is that they’ve beaten up on a lot of really bad defense. The way they’ve humiliated those opponents is still really special, but it doesn’t necessarily mean this team is unstoppable.

We’ve seen the Dolphins play two above-average defenses this year: the Patriots in Week 2 and the Bills in Week 4. In those games, Miami has averaged a good but not great 391 yards and 22 points.

Can the Patriots have a repeat performance in Miami? Maybe not, but I think they’ll at least keep the Dolphins from going scorched earth.

Ultimately, the ball finally broke the Patriots way in Week 7. This was a team that had played a lot of competitive contests, and they finally got in the win column against a good team. That, coupled with their previous showing vs. the Dolphins earlier in the season, should give the team a bit of confidence.

Bill Belichick has been an underdog of greater than a touchdown just six times since 2005, and he’s 4-2 in that stretch. Only one of those games was with Tom Brady at quarterback, so he’s survived even without the GOAT under center. As long as I can get this number above 10, I think backing the Pats is the right idea.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-105, BetMGM)

Opening Line: Bengals +1.0
Current Line: Bengals +5.5
Target Range: Bengals +4.5 or better

This is one of the more interesting games of the week. For starters, the Bengals are going to have a significant rest advantage. They’re coming off the bye, while the 49ers will have a slightly shortened week after playing on Monday Night Football.

You’d think that would translate to a big advantage for the bye-week squad, but it hasn’t historically. Teams with at least 14 days between games are just 13-26-1 ATS against teams with six days between games since 2005.

Should that concern Bengals’ backers? Probably not. It’s not a particularly large sample size, and there’s no logical reason why teams with short rest should outperform teams with extra rest.

Additionally, the Bengals needed the bye in the worst way. Joe Burrow has looked better over the past few weeks, but he remains well off his usual production. He’s 30th among 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite, putting him in the same tier as guys like Ridder, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones.

If Burrow is able to get a bit healthier during the break, this team has the potential to make an astronomical leap offensively. If that happens, the sky's the limit for this squad. Their defense is an above-average unit, so if the offense can do their job, this team still has the potential to be a factor come playoff time.

On the other side, the 49ers have to answer some questions about their injuries on offense. It sounds like Christian McCaffrey will play Monday vs. the Vikings, but his effectiveness at less than 100% remains to be seen. Deebo Samuel isn’t expected to return until after their Week 8 bye, so Brock Purdy is going to have to prove he can produce without the best complement of skill-position players in football.

I’ve been one of Purdy’s biggest supporters, but that’s a big ask. It’s one thing to be able to run a scheme perfectly in ideal circumstances. It’s another to be able to elevate the players around you.

We’ll learn more about Purdy on Monday, but I like the idea of locking in the Bengals early. If Purdy struggles for the second straight week, this line could plummet.

I don’t think it has much of a chance of getting to seven, so this could be the best line we see for the Bengals all week.

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Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals (-110, FanDuel)

Opening Line: Ravens -6.0
Current Line: Ravens -8.5
Target Range: Ravens -9.5 or better

The Cardinals started the year with two close losses and a win, and it seemed like sports bettors everywhere were ready to throw them a parade.

All offseason, all we heard about the Cardinals is that they were going to be really, really bad. Instead, they might be competitive. Frisky even!

However, those performances look a lot less impressive in retrospect. The Commanders and Giants are two of the worst teams in football, so the fact that the Cardinals lost close games to them isn’t all that impressive. The win over the Cowboys is still nice, but the Cowboys were down three starters on their offensive line and have been humbled after a dominant start to the year.

In short, the Cardinals might be just as bad as we all initially thought.

They’ve now failed to cover in four straight games, losing by a combined 70 points. They’ve lost all four games by double figures.

Now they have to take on a Ravens team that is absolutely surging. They just put together one of the most impressive showings of the year vs. the Lions, embarrassing them 38-6 in Baltimore. They racked up more than 500 yards of offense against a solid Lions’ D, and now that they’re nearing full strength on offense, this team looks like a beast.

It’s hard for me to envision the Cardinals keeping this one close. I’m happy to play Baltimore at anything better than -10.

You can track this line on FanDuel, where you can also get $200 in bonus bets by placing a first bet of at least $5. Simply sign up below to claim your offer today!

NFL Week 8 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

Houston Texans (-3.0) at Carolina Panthers (-110, DraftKings)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) (-105, DraftKings)

New England Patriots (+10.5) at Miami Dolphins (-110, BetMGM)

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-105, BetMGM)

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Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals (-110, FanDuel)

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