NFL Week 9 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — ie, getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.

The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves. That’s the goal of this piece — to highlight the bets you should be locking in early, gobbling up as much sweet, sweet CLV as possible.

Let’s take a look at five games that have my eye for Week 8.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-105; FanDuel)

Opening Line: Falcons +1.0
Current Line: Falcons -3.5
Target Range: Falcons -4.0 or better

The Vikings managed to get the win in Week 8, but they may have lost the war.

Kirk Cousins suffered what is believed to be a torn Achilles, which would sideline him for the rest of the season. The team will still do tests on Monday to confirm, but the initial prognosis is that his year — and potentially his tenure in Minnesota — is done.

Backup quarterback Nick Mullens is also on Injured Reserve, and he’s not eligible to return to the lineup until Week 10 at the earliest. That leaves Jaren Hall as the only available option on the team’s depth chart.

Hall got just a touch of experience in relief of Cousins vs. the Packers, and what we saw was not impressive. His first drive ended with a fumble, while his second drive ended with a punt. Hall wasn’t effective in the preseason, either, so asking him to start in his rookie season is likely not going to end well.

Cousins has been carrying a massive load for the Vikings’ offense. They’ve had virtually no running game to speak of, and Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers combined for just 50 yards on 25 carries vs. the Packers.

Without Cousins slinging the ball all over the yard, how in the world is this team going to survive?

The Falcons are up to 3.5-point favorites across the industry, but I’d expect this number to close higher. They're obviously not loaded at quarterback, either, but Taylor Hienicke gave the team a spark in the second half against the Titans.

I’m happy to play the Falcons at -4 or better.

Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) vs. New York Giants (-110; BetMGM)

Opening Line: Raiders -2.5
Current Line: Raiders -3.5
Target Range: Raiders -4.0 or better

The Jets and Giants engaged in a battle of futility on Sunday, with the two squads combining for more punts (24) than total points (23).

Unfortunately, the Giants saw another one of their quarterbacks go down in the defeat. Tyrod Taylor was taken to the hospital due to a rib injury, leaving Tommy DeVito to combat the Jets. Neither quarterback was able to do anything offensively, with the team posting a ghastly -9 net passing yards:

It was previously reported that the team was targeting a Week 10 return for Daniel Jones. It’s possible that they try to expedite that process if Taylor is unavailable, but for now DeVito starting in Week 9 vs. the Raiders is a very real possibility.

Ultimately, it doesn’t matter who has been under center for the Giants this season: The offense has struggled. Their offensive line is being held together by spit and glue, which does not bode well for a matchup vs. Maxx Crosby.

Backing the Raiders as favorites of more than a field goal might feel irresponsible, but you can make a legit case that the Giants are the worst team in the league at the moment. This is another line that could close significantly higher depending on the QB situation, so I’m locking in the Raiders now.

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Houston Texans (-2.0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-110; DraftKings)

Opening Line: Texans -1
Current Line: Texans -2
Target Range: Texans -3 or better

The Texans did not have a strong result after their Week 7 bye, handing the Panthers their first win (and cover) of the season. They managed just 229 yards of total offense — their fewest of the year — and fell to just 3-4.

Still, the Texans have had plenty of positives so far this season. They entered Week 8 in the top half of the league in both points and yards per game, and they were also in the top half in yardage differential. There are bound to be growing pains with a rookie head coach and quarterback, but this team is ultimately not that bad.

On the other side, the Buccaneers have looked dreadful after a promising start to the year. They technically were able to cover last Thursday vs. the Bills, but they were extremely lucky to get there. They needed three fourth-down conversions on their second-to-last drive: two came by penalty, and the third was a deflected pass off a helmet:

Baker Mayfield has regressed horribly since starting the season strong, and the sharps seem happy to lay the points with the Texans. This is one of the few games that has already seen some sharp activity (per the Action Network), driving this line up to Texans -2.5 at some locations.

I think this number is headed to three, so I’d recommend getting on board early.

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Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-110; Caesars)

Opening Line: Bengals -1.0
Current Line: Bengals -1.5
Target Range: Bengals -2.5 or better

The Bengals are officially back.

The big story of the early season was how poor the Bengals’ offense was playing. Specifically, Joe Burrow looked nothing like the quarterback we’ve grown to know and love over the past two seasons. He suffered a calf injury during the offseason, and was clearly hampered by that injury during the early part of the year.

However, after a bye in Week 7, Burrow looked back to being Joe Shiesty vs. the 49ers. He was a near-perfect 28 of 32 against a strong 49ers D, racking up 283 yards and three touchdowns in the process.

Oct 29, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) gestures after a play against the San Francisco 49ers during the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

If Burrow is back to performing as one of the top quarterbacks in football, the Bengals are poised to make a major run up the standings down the stretch. Remember, with a healthy Burrow from 2021 through 2022, the Bengals were one of the best teams in football at covering the spread. They posted a 26-13 ATS mark (including the playoffs), and they were 15-6 as an underdog or favorite of three points or less.

The Bills have hit a major stumbling block of late, failing to cover in four straight games. They’re always capable of flipping the switch, but it’s hard to not buy into the Bengals given what we saw on Sunday. I like them at anything better than a field goal.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Under 51.5 points (-110; FanDuel)

Opening Total: 51.5
Current Total: 51.5
Target Range: 50.0 or higher

The best game of the week will take place in Frankfurt, Germany at 9:30 a.m. ET. Sorry West Coasters, but you’re going to need to set an alarm if you want to watch Patrick Mahomes square off with the high-flying Dolphins’ offense.

The total on this game opened at 51.5, but it’s already down to 50.5 at some locations. Personally, I’m looking to play the under at anything better than 50.0.

It’s no secret that scoring has been down this season. The under has absolutely smashed through the first eight weeks, and totals of 50+ are going the way of the dinosaur. Only 10 games have had a closing total of 49 or greater this season, and the under is a sparkling 8-2 in those contests.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that this total is on the way down.

The Dolphins’ offense has looked borderline unstoppable at times this season, but most of their damage has come against weaker competition. When they’ve squared off with a competent unit, the results have been much more modest.

The Chiefs are a far more defensively oriented team than in previous years, and their offense far less explosive than in years past. They’re lacking a clear No. 2 option behind Travis Kelce, and when combined with their improved defense, they’re 6-2 to the under this season.

Add in an earlier-than-usual start time, and points could be hard to come by. This is my favorite early play of the week, and it’s another one where I think there could be plenty of CLV by locking it in early.

You can tail the under on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you place a first bet of $5 or more after signing up below!

NFL Week 9 Early Betting Lines. Identifying Market Adjustments.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-105; FanDuel)

Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) vs. New York Giants (-110; BetMGM)

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Houston Texans (-2.0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-110; DraftKings)

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Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-110; Caesars)

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Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Under 51.5 points (-110; FanDuel)

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