We have finally made it to the postseason, but our work does not stop here. If anything, the lines are only getting sharper in the playoffs, so we’re going to have to work even harder in the early markets.

If you’re new to this article, the premise is simple: We’re looking to grab the best numbers that we can early in the week. In NFL betting, getting the right number can be almost more important than getting the right teams. If you’re constantly getting the worst numbers — i.e., getting negative closing line value (CLV) — it can be the difference between winning and losing on a handful of bets each season.

The best way to attack the NFL market is early in the week, before the sharps have had a chance to grab all the value for themselves.

Let’s dive into three early bets that have my attention for Wild Card Weekend.

Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Houston Texans

• Current Line: Browns -1.5 (-110; FanDuel)
• Target Range: Browns -2.5 or better

Both of these squads have been fantastic stories this season. The Texans entered the year with minimal expectations. They were starting a rookie quarterback with a rookie head coach, and they were counting on young players throughout their roster. After finishing with the second-worst record in 2022-23, they managed to win the AFC South this season.

Meanwhile, the Browns navigated one of the toughest divisions in football history. All four teams finished over .500 — the first time that’s happened since 1935 — despite starting five different players at quarterback. Their “franchise QB” DeShaun Watson underwhelmed when healthy before suffering a season-ending injury, while Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker both faltered in the starting role.

Enter Joe Flacco. The 38-year-old came off the couch to take over the starting reigns in Week 13, and he propelled the squad to a 4-1 record. He put the team in a position where they didn’t even need to play their starters in Week 18 because they’d already clinched a postseason spot.

Dec 28, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) throws a pass against the New York Jets during the first half at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

What Flacco has done has been nothing short of storybook. He’s thrown 13 touchdown passes in his five games while averaging 323 yards per game. He has struggled with inconsistency and turnovers at times, but he’s proven that he’s still worthy of a starting spot at the NFL level.

The good news is that Flacco doesn’t have to do things by himself. The Browns boast easily the best defense in football. They’re first in the league in EPA/play defensively, and they were first in opponent yards per game through the first 17 weeks. They’re also tied for seventh in sacks per game and tied for third in takeaways per game, so they excel at generating splash plays.

It’s a brutal matchup for C.J. Stroud, who has come through for the Texans all season. He’s going to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year after racking up 4,108 passing yards, 26 total touchdowns and just five interceptions in 15 games. It’s one of the best seasons ever from a rookie quarterback, and he finished 13th at the position in EPA + CPOE.

He gives the Texans an edge on paper at the most important position, but that edge might not be as big as you think. While Flacco has gobs of playoff experience, Stroud will be making his first appearance.

Quarterbacks making their first playoff start have historically been amazing fade candidates, especially when facing a QB with previous playoff experience. Before last season, first-time QBs were just 14-35-1 ATS when facing an experienced QB. That’s good for a cover rate of just 29%.

Those quarterbacks did much better last year, with Daniel Jones securing an outright win in his first career playoff start, while Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson covered for the Ravens and Dolphins. That said, Huntley and Thompson were both underdogs of more than a touchdown, while Stroud isn’t even getting a full field goal. He’s almost assuredly going to need to win the game outright to cover the spread.

Personally, I love this spot for the Browns.

Their defense is elite, and Flacco is going to be unflappable in the postseason. While the opposing sidelines deals with jitters, that could make a massive difference. I’m comfortable playing Cleveland at anything better than -3.

You can tail the Browns at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5 or more!

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Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions Over 51.0

• Current Line: Over 51.0 (-110; DraftKings)
• Target Range: Over 51.5 or better

The theme of the recent NFL has been unders. The under was dominant once again in 2023-24, with offenses struggling with poor quarterback play and unimaginative playcalling while defenses focus more and more on limiting big plays.

That said, every rule has exceptions, and these are two clear outlier teams.

The Lions were 11-6 to the over this season — tied for the best mark in football — while the Rams were 9-8. The Lions averaged 26.9 points per game, while the Rams were just slightly behind at 23.9. If not for some midseason injuries in Los Angeles, the Rams offense would look a lot better on paper than it does overall.

After getting back Kyren Williams in Week 12, the Rams offense was fourth in EPA/play (excluding Week 18). With Williams, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, this offense is capable of putting up points in bunches against basically anyone. They scored 36 against the Browns’ league-best defense and followed that up with 31 in Baltimore. They also had 30 against the Saints, another borderline top-10 unit.

The Lions… do not have a top 10 defense. They have been slightly improved down the stretch — and got C.J. Gardner-Johnson back in the lineup in Week 18 — but this is still a very exploitable unit. The Lions are 24th in EPA/play defensively since Week 8, including 27th in dropback EPA.

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) celebrates his touchdown catch with wide receiver Kalif Raymond during the second half of an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys, Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023, in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys won 20-19. (AP Photo/Sam Hodde)

On the other side, the Lions should do plenty of scoring of their own. The Rams defense may not be the disaster that everyone expected to start the year, but they’re still not good. They’re 18th in EPA/play for the year, putting them just slightly ahead of the Detroit.

Playoff games do tend to be lower-scoring, but that applies primarily to outdoor games. No one wants to go into Lambeau or Soldier Field in freezing cold temperatures. I doubt anyone is going to mind playing in the Ford Field dome.

I think the Rams have a good chance of covering the 3.5-point spread in this matchup, but the over stands out as the stronger play. This number has already been bet up to 51.5 after opening at 50.5, so locking this one in as soon as possible makes a lot of sense.

Dallas Cowboys (-7.0) vs. Green Bay Packers

• Current Line: Cowboys -7.0 (-110; DraftKings)
• Target Range: Cowboys -7.0 or better

The Cowboys managed to take care of business Sunday vs. the Commanders, securing the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a matchup vs. the Packers on Wild Card Weekend.

The Packers enter this contest on a roll, racking up wins in six of their final eight games. Jordan Love played as well as anyone down the stretch, and given the Cowboys’ track record in the postseason, I can see the public wanting to back Green Bay in this spot.

I’m on the opposite side. Dallas getting the No. 2 seed is a massive development, since it means all their games will be at home until the potential NFC Championship showdown vs. the 49ers. When the Cowboys have been at home this season, they’ve been an absolute wagon. They were a perfect 8-0 in Dallas during the regular season, posting a 6-2 mark against the spread. Those eight wins came by an average of 21.5 points per game, and they covered the spread by an average of +12.9 points. Unsurprisingly, those were both the top marks in football.

Dak Prescott has historically crushed at home and as a favorite, so this is a spot that sets up very well for him. The Packers were also just 4-5 ATS away from Green Bay this season.

Heading into Week 18, the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings had the Cowboys as roughly 5.3 points better than the Packers on a neutral field. I could see that number increasing heading into the playoffs, and Dallas undoubtedly has one of the best home-field advantages in football. There’s potentially some value in waiting to see if this number dips below seven, but even if it doesn’t, I’m fine with backing the Cowboys.

You can tail the Cowboys on DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

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