Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers made arguably the biggest move of the offseason, trading multiple high-round draft picks and WR DJ Moore in order to move up from 9th to 1st and select QB Bryce Young.

They now enter the Frank Reich era with a 7.5 regular season win total that has seen the odds on the under drop from +100 in early August to -130 (Caesars) after struggling in the preseason. 

Panthers Week 1 Injury Notes:

• Laviska Shenault Jr. (concussion) - questionable
• DJ Chark (hamstring) - questionable
• Terrace Marshall (back) - questionable
• Miles Sanders - groin and likely to play

Atlanta made some noise of their own at the draft, taking Bijan Robinson at number 8 overall—despite having Tyler Allgeier on the roster, who rushed for over 1000 yards last season. This will be the second season for Arthur Smith as head coach, and the Falcons enter it as second-favorites in the NFC South at +210 (FanDuel). 

Falcons Week 1 Injury Notes:

• Jeff Okudah (ankle) - doubtful
• Cordarrelle Patterson (soft tissue) - questionable

Game Analysis

Carolina will be one of three teams starting a rookie quarterback in week 1, and by all accounts, it could be a season filled with ups and downs.

Bryce Young was pressured often in his first three preseason starts, enduring at least one big sack in each short appearance. 2022 first-round pick OT Ikem Ekwonu—who was solid at points last year—has reportedly struggled in camp and looked terrible on a couple of plays in the preseason. 

Adam Thielen led all Panthers receivers in the preseason with a 35% team target share, which is good for his PPR league prospects but not a great sign for Carolina’s upside as a team.

Rookie Jonathan Mingo brings more YAC ability and acted as a near-every-down receiver in the preseason. With Terrace Marshall and DJ Chark both battling injuries, those former two should be expected to take the bulk of the targets in Week 1. 

Fans may want the Panthers to air things out, but the circumstances mean we’re likely to see an offense built around short, precision passing.

Aug 25, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) celebrates with quarterback Bryce Young (9) after scoring a touchdown in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons made improvements to their interior defense this season by adding Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree to the mix, and it’s possible Miles Sanders may find it difficult to break free in his first game as a Panther. Sanders has spent most of the preseason sidelined with an injury, although he did return to practice this week and the team has expressed no concern over his Week 1 availability. 

As for the Falcons, they ended last season ranked dead last in DBOE (drop back over expectation), and their drafting of an RB in round one suggests they won’t be moving away from their run-first philosophy anytime soon. Carolina was 18th in defensive rush DVOA last season but did add DL Shy Tuttle to help in that area. Tuttle ranked just 21st in PFF’s best available Defensive Linemen this offseason and may not be a huge needle-mover in helping them improve in this metric. 

Atlanta managed just 4.3 yards per carry in two games against Carolina last season, but that was without Bijan Robinson in the mix, who should feature heavily in this game and give the Falcons a more explosive element at RB that they were lacking at times in 2022. 

Expect Atlanta to keep it simple in the opener as they attempt to wear down Carolina on the ground with a rotation of backs that is far more explosive than what we saw from them in 2022. 

Verdict

A divisional matchup right out of the gate is always intriguing. Last year in Week 1, divisional underdogs went 4-2 ATS, and since 2005, divisional underdogs in Week 1 have gone 64-38-2 ATS. With all that being said, this is a very winnable game for Atlanta and one they could potentially dominate. 

The Falcons may not be world beaters on defense just yet, but the improvements they made on the defensive line should shine through against a rookie quarterback and offensive line that may be in way over their heads to begin the season. The lack of explosiveness and yards after the catch ability on offense for Carolina also make the under (40.0 points) appealing, especially given the slow pace Atlanta loves to play at.  

The line has moved to +3.5 (Caesars), so betting the Falcons does carry a little more risk now, but there are other ways to play Atlanta. A straight-up moneyline bet on the Falcons would go nicely in a same-game parlay with an under on Miles Sanders’s running total or an over on Bryce Young INTs.