Patience is a Virtue (Especially for QBs)
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog, we dive into the fallout of Bryce Young, an NFL prop for Week 3, and the best MLB bet for today.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog:
Patience Is A Virtue: The Panthers’ benching former 1.01 Bryce Young with cause dominated recent NFL headlines. That said, avoid the temptation to dogpile this guy. If you said from the outset Young never fit the physical prototype for that type of draft capital, then you’re feeling pretty vindicated—I get it.
But succeeding in the NFL at its hardest position without any professional experience is NEVER something we should expect.
There’s a clip of Tom Brady’s take on Bryce Young floating around the web with my highest recommendation—well worth the two minutes. It explains why having to earn his spot from the bench and climb the depth chart helped shape TB12 into the goat.
Never mind the fact allowing for proper maturation under responsible tutelage dominated as prevailing thought for decades—we’ve witnessed premiere draft capital bloom late a couple of times in the last few seasons alone. Both the Geno Smith and Sam Darnold (both currently top-10 fantasy QBs) signings drew instinctive eye-rolls that I’d bet more than one bigshot front office-type wishes they could take back.
Will it happen for Young this year? Doubtful. Next year? Highly unlikely. Ever? Now you’re piquing my interest for a wager, depending on the cost of course. So be patient people, it’s a virtue for a reason.
Anyway, make sure to check out our bet tracker, I’ll continue to add my free NFL bets throughout the week, alongside the rest of our star-studded roster.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange
- Give ‘Em The Heater
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Slot Machine
Fine, maybe I overreacted a little bit following Sunday’s action, squinting at my phone from the back row of a wedding. After the last few decades in the AFC East, can you honestly blame me? If the O/U 38.5 line is any indication, tomorrow’s matchup between the Jets and the Patriots screams divisional rock fight.
The defense many expected to represent the Pats’ strong suit got out of the gate fast, living right up to potential. Some early stats already pop on the spreadsheet, especially when it comes to stopping the run—New England’s top-3 in Rush Yards Allowed Per Game, Rush Yards Allowed Per Play, and Forced Fumbles (below).
You have to wonder how long the Jets will commit to attacking NE’s strength with weakness. The Jets’ run game cannot get going, averaging under 4.0 yards/carry on a disappointing 33% success rate. Woof.
As if I could get you any more sour on the ground game (Jets fans grab your barf bags), their average yards gained before contact is 0.05! That’s so low I had to double-check Trumedia. For reference, that’s 5x worse than the next team and nearly 29x worse than average (below)!
Expect the Jets to keep up the same fast-paced passing attack placing Aaron Rodgers behind only Tua Tagovailoa (injured) and Malik Willis (backup) in shortest time to throw.
This same catch-and-release style is responsible for Rodgers’ 6.5 air yards/attempt. Not great. You can count the deep shots on one hand—and heat maps clearly confirm the vast majority of target concentration near the line (below).
Regardless if Garrett Wilson gets the actual shadow treatment from star CB Christian Gonzalez, he’s bound to garner most of NE’s defensive attention. That should allow for Rodgers to operate freely underneath with his bestie Allen Lazard from the slot. Lazard’s the only Jet to run more slot routes than Wilson and books set the bar nice and low at 2.5 catches.
Lastly, since the Pats blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the league, it leaves that same middle area undefended off the snap. The result? New England’s actually dead last in receptions allowed to the slot.
So why is Lazard’s reception prop set so low? My guess is actually the presence of Mike Williams, which I’m more than fine with—he’s a part-time player in 3-WR sets only.
And get this … of all 218 pass-catchers to receive a target this year (INCLUDING TIGHT ENDS), Williams’ 0.42 is the stone-cold worst separation score in the league per NextGen stats.
THE BET: Allen Lazard Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)
You can look for all of the best value on your Week 3 player props with our NFL player prop finder!
Not looking to find your own props? Need a bit of input? Check out our NFL Player Prop Model, where you can compare our projections to prop lines for the best edge!
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Give ‘Em The Heater ⚾️🔥 — Schwellen-bach To The Basics
These quick-hitting MLB props keep cashing … so let the good times roll.
Tonight’s standout strikeout prop belongs to Braves’ rookie Spencer Schwellenbach.
The big righty’s pitched fantastic this season from a surface outlook (3.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) but let me tell you, all the underpinning stuff fully agrees. Schwelly’s the total package, checking every box across the spreadsheet. His command, control, and strikeout metrics are all outstanding: (21.9% K-BB, 15.1% Swinging Strike, 31.4% CSW, 38.1% O-Swing).
Schwellenbach’s gone over 5.5 strikeouts in12 of his last 15 GS …
… and the Reds are bottom-5 in K% versus right-handed starters the last two weeks (below). Any Reds fan will tell you as exciting as they are at times, their inability to make in-zone contact really stunted their season.
THE BET: Spencer Schwellenbach O5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Be sure to follow along with my MLB prop bets with our Free MLB bets tracker!
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🤬 Week 2 may be behind us … but these bad beats still sting.
📈 Utilization Scores have been updated for Week 2 action … which players’ roles indicate a breakout on the horizon?
⭐️ Five, count ‘em … FIVE 5-star edges to target in Week 3 … these are worth some ATS bets.
🤝 Claudia is joined by Matthew Freedman and Geoff Ulrich to hit on their favorite bets for Week 3.
🧀 Some encouraging news out of Green Bay … say it ain’t so.
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