Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

In previous seasons, this game would be a “strength-on-strength” matchup.

Under OC Greg Roman, the Ravens were 25th in neutral pass rate on early downs. Meanwhile, the Browns were building out their defenses through the trenches. They’ve used four of their Day 2 picks on interior defensive players over the last four years. Plus, Cleveland also preferred to win on the ground. After HC Kevin Stefanski came over from Minnesota, the Browns PROE was at -5%.

But it’s a new day for both teams. 

Baltimore has Todd Monken pulling the dials for Lamar Jackson. As a result, the offense is running more plays per game, with Jackson dicing up defenses as a pure passer (along with his legs). At the same time, Cleveland’s passing game has found some life as Deshaun Watson continues to knock off the rust. 

Let’s take a deeper look at both squads, starting with the one coming off a heartbreaking (read: referee-induced) loss in Week 3.

Through three weeks, Lamar Jackson is second among all QBs in passing success rate and fifth in adjusted completion percentage. And it’s not like he’s been inefficient before. In his last full season (2021), Jackson was eighth in success rate. However, the schematic shift makes Jackson’s play seem all the more impressive.

Sep 24, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) passes from the pocket during the game against the Indianapolis Colts at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Ravens used three-receiver sets on just 12.2% of their plays. And a byproduct of their alignment was Jackson’s aDOT. He’s been in the top 10 of average air yards per pass over the last three seasons. It’s cool seeing the splash plays, but it puts the onus on Lamar to hang in the pocket to let the route develop. Don’t get me wrong, the explosives are still there, but it’s the plays in between that will save Jackson’s day against the Browns.

Baltimore’s now running 11 personnel at a 52.2% rate. As a result, Jackson’s aDOT (7.1) and average time to throw (2.82 seconds) are at a career low. He’ll need the (relatively) quick release to avoid the Browns’ pass rush that’s fifth in pressure rate. With Cleveland rendering most running games obsolete (first in rushing success rate allowed), Melvin Gordon becomes a desperation start with Gus Edwards in the concussion protocol. But the Ravens’ passing game can likely still get off the ground.

Rashod Bateman’s hamstring tightened up in Week 3, and Odell Beckham’s status remains unknown. Consequently, Zay Flowers becomes the best play by default. No other pass-catcher has double-digit targets or catches. And luckily for us, he’s seen the most looks from the slot where Ja’Marr Chase (4-29-0) and George Pickens (2-23-0) found most of their success. Mark Andrews (after missing a game) has already reclaimed his role as Jackson’s go-to guy in obvious passing situations. But outside of these two receivers, the Ravens have a limited number of fantasy options against the Browns’ defense.

For the Browns, let’s start with their rushing attack. In a Nick Chubb-less world, the fantasy community turned to Jerome Ford as their savior. We tossed Pierre Strong aside. Kareem Hunt’s signing was a non-factor to fantasy managers. And maybe I’m a Ford doubter, but his workload didn’t look Chubb-like after HC Stefanski insisted Ford would be their starter.

With a third of the carries on 56.0% of the team’s snaps, Ford needed a receiving TD on a busted coverage and a short, three-yard jaunt into the paint after Deshaun Watson scrambled most of the way there two plays before. Regardless, Hunt saw more targets on a per-route basis, and Strong took some of the short-yardage work. 

And the Ravens have an equally imposing defensive front.

Baltimore is yet to allow a rushing TD, and prior to Week 3, no rusher had more than 60 yards against them. Zack Moss going for 122 would lend itself to folks trusting Ford, but there’s a slight difference in his situation than Moss’. 

The Colts’ rushers are seeing 1.8 yards before contact (9th-most). 

Cleveland’s? 0.9 yards (9th-least). 

The potential committee gives me pause before going all in on any of the Browns’ RBs. So, let’s look at their aerial attack.

After three uneven games to start the season, Watson is 23rd in EPA per play, just ahead of Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder. But at least his inefficiency has been fruitful for fantasy. The Browns have had a top-12 pass-catcher in two of three games. Amari Cooper leads the way with a 25% target share, but there might be a chance for more explosives in this matchup.

Let’s look at a few of the receivers that have gone up against Baltimore’s secondary:

• Nico Collins: 6’4”, 6-80-0 statline
• Tee Higgins: 6’4”, 12-89-2
• Michael Pittman: 6’4”, 9-77-0

All worked along the perimeter, away from the strength of the Ravens’ defense. Coincidentally, Donovan Peoples-Jones (6’2”)has run 64.7% of his routes from the outside. Peoples-Jones has the same route rate as Cooper and Elijah Moore, with the second-highest explosive play rate on the team. If you’re looking for a spot start in the FLEX, DPJ has a shot in what’ll be a competitive matchup in Week 4.