Ravens vs Steelers Predictions and Preview For Week 16
Matthew Freedman breaks down everything you need to know ahead of the Week 16 Saturday AFC North clash between the Ravens and Steelers
In this breakdown of my Ravens vs Steelers predictions and preview for the Week 16 Saturday matchup, I include my model's game score and player stat projections (via boxscore), which should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also …
- Provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.)
- Highlight any potential best bets I have on the game
- Note any players I like to outperform expectations.
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about. Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
For my fantasy thoughts on the Week 16 slate, see my “Freedman's Favorites.”
Obligatory notes.
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of Fri., Dec. 20, 7:30 a.m. ET.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 10% off your FL+ sub with the promo code FREEDMAN.
And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Ravens vs Steelers Betting Odds
- Spread & Total: BAL -6.5 | O/U 44.5
- BAL ML: -278 (ESPN Bet)
- PIT ML: +240 (Caesars)
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
A spread of -6.5 means the Ravens need to win by at least seven points to cash. If the Steelers win outright or lose by no more than six, they cash. A total of 44.5 means that 45 or more points cashes the over and 44 or fewer points cashes the under. A -278 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $278 to win $100; a +240 ML, $100 to win $240.
This game marks the 37th time that the Ravens and Steelers have played each other with HCs John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin.
The underdog in this matchup is 25-8-3 ATS.
Implied Team Totals For Ravens vs Steelers
- BAL Team Total: 25.5
- PIT Team Total: 19
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Projections for Week 16 Ravens vs. Steelers
Ravens-Steelers Betting Projections
- Spread: BAL -7.1
- Total: 45.4
- ML: +/-283.7
Steelers-Ravens Projected Final Score
- Ravens: 26.3
- Steelers: 19.1
Since this projected score is technically impossible, here's my "informed gut" prediction: BAL 27, PIT 20.
Ravens-Steelers Projected Odds to Win
- Ravens: 73.9%
- Bills: 26.1%
Ravens Player Projections For Week 16
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | Steelers Player Projections For Week 16 | Quarterback | Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends | ||||||
| Jaylen Warren | 6.9 | 27.9 | 0.18 | 2.6 | 21.3 | 0.06 | 7.7 | ||
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 11.5 | 0.06 | 0.9 | 6.4 | 0.03 | 2.8 | ||
| Calvin Austin | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 2.6 | 39 | 0.24 | 6.7 | ||
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 25.1 | 0.16 | 4.3 | ||
| Mike Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 27.3 | 0.14 | 4.5 | ||
| Scotty Miller | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 12.2 | 0.05 | 1.9 | ||
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 9.2 | 0.05 | 1.6 | ||
| Pat Freiermuth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 38 | 0.27 | 7.2 | ||
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11.3 | 0.07 | 2.1 | ||
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 5 | 0.04 | 1 | ||
| Connor Heyward | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 0.04 | 0.6 |
Top Fantasy Plays for Week 16 Ravens vs. Steelers
Ravens Week 16 Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Ravens in their skill-position groups for Week 16.
- Lamar Jackson: QB3
- Derrick Henry: RB8
- Justice Hill: RB38
- Zay Flowers: WR23
- Mark Andrews: TE8
- Isaiah Likely: TE26
Rankings are for half-PPR scoring and differ slightly from projections, which seek to hit the median in a range of outcomes. In contrast, my rankings attempt to take into account ceiling and floor.
For updates, see my weekly fantasy rankings.
Steelers Week 16 Fantasy Rankings
Here's where I rank fantasy-viable Steelers in their skill-position groups for Week 16.
- Russell Wilson: QB23
- Najee Harris: RB31
- Jaylen Warren: RB32
- Calvin Austin: WR60
- Pat Freiermuth: TE10
Freedman's Favorite
Steelers WR Calvin Austin: No. 1 WR George Pickens (hamstring) hasn't played the past two weeks, and in his absence, Austin has led the team with a 21% target share, and specifically last week—when the team had more time to game plan without Pickens—Austin had a 92% route rate, 21% target rate, and 28% target share (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
With his ability to line up across the formation, the Steelers can scheme easier catches for Austin, and his explosiveness (9.6 yards per target this year) gives him a chance to turn any reception into a TD.
The Ravens are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.3).
From my Week 16 Freedman's Favorites (WR Edition).
Betting Records and Trends for Week 16 Ravens vs. Steelers
Ravens: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 7-6-1, 2.5% ROI | Favorites: 7-5-1, 10.4% ROI | Home: 2-3-1, -19.2% ROI
- ML: 9-5, -5.6% ROI | Favorites: 9-4, 1.6% ROI | Home: 4-2, -6.8% ROI
- Over: 11-3, 49.5% ROI | Home: 4-2, 27.0% ROI
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Ravens have been mediocre ATS and ML wagers but have been the league's most profitable team for over bettors. That's what happens when you mix a career-best effort from QB Lamar Jackson (league-high 10.2 AY/A) with a bottom-five pass defense (No. 28 with a 0.133 dropback EPA, per RBs Don't Matter).
Steelers: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 10-4, 37.1% ROI | Underdogs: 5-1, 62.5% ROI | Road: 5-3, 19.7% ROI
- ML: 10-4, 39.1% ROI | Underdogs: 5-1, 98.2% ROI | Road: 5-3, 27.3% ROI
- Over: 7-7, -4.3% ROI | Road: 5-3, 19.1% ROI
The Steelers have been the betting opposite of the Ravens this year: Great ATS and ML, forgettable on the total.
Ravens: Betting Trends
- HC John Harbaugh: 153-133-9 ATS, 4.7% ROI | 181-114 ML, 2.6% ROI
- Harbaugh at Home: 66-73-3 ATS, -6.8% ROI | 100-42 ML, 4.0% ROI
- Harbaugh as Favorite: 98-97-6 ATS, -1.5% ROI | 145-56 ML, 2.9% ROI
- Harbaugh as Home Favorite: 56-65-3 ATS, -9% ROI | 93-31 ML, 3.3% ROI
- Harbaugh in Division: 49-50-5 ATS, -2.9% ROI | 59-45 ML, -3.2% ROI
- Harbaugh as Divisional Home Fav: 14-28-1 ATS, -34.7% ROI | 28-15 ML, -9.5% ROI
- Harbaugh vs. HC Mike Tomlin: 14-19-3 ATS, -16.8% ROI | 15-21 ML, -7.1% ROI
- Harbaugh as Home Fav vs. Tomlin: 2-9 ATS, -66.5% ROI | 4-7 ML, -41.9% ROI
- QB Lamar Jackson vs. Tomlin: 0-5 ATS, -100% ROI | 1-4 ML, -68.5% ROI
- Jackson as Home Favorite: 18-27-1 ATS, -21.8% ROI | 33-13 ML, -4.1% ROI
- Jackson as Divisional Home Fav: 4-10 ATS, -44.5% ROI | 10-4 ML, -1.3% ROI
- Jackson in 35 Degrees or Less: 5-1 ATS, 61.2% ROI | 4-2 ML, -14.3% ROI
- Jackson in Wind of 10 mph or More: 12-10-1 ATS, 3.8% ROI | 12-11 ML, -25.2% ROI
There are a lot of trends here, but they mostly point to this general thesis: This is not a good spot for the Ravens—especially against Tomlin.
Steelers: Betting Trends
- HC Mike Tomlin: 160-140-7 ATS, 4.5% ROI | 190-114-2 ML, 9.2% ROI
- Tomlin on Road: 77-71-3 ATS, 2.3% ROI | 83-67-1 ML, 6.8% ROI
- Tomlin as Underdog: 64-36-4 ATS, 24.2% ROI | 54-50 ML, 31.1% ROI
- Tomlin in Division: 63-44-4 ATS, 14.7% ROI | 76-34-1 ML, 18.5% ROI
- Tomlin Off Loss: 59-43 ATS, 13.5% ROI | 69-38 ML, 13.2% ROI
- Tomlin as Div Dog Off Loss: 10-3 ATS, 45.1% ROI | 9-4 ML, 71.2% ROI
- Tomlin as Div Road Dog Off Loss: 4-3 ATS, 6.2% ROI | 3-4 ML, 18.0% ROI
- QB Russell Wilson With Steelers: 6-2 ATS, 45.0% ROI | 6-2 ML, 50.1% ROI
- Wilson as Underdog: 43-24-2 ATS, 24.5% ROI | 32-36-1 ML, 18.8% ROI
- Wilson Off Loss: 38-26-5 ATS, 14.7% ROI | 45-24 ML, 6.3% ROI
- Wilson as Dog Off Loss: 17-7 ATS, 37.3% ROI | 12-12 ML, 17.7% ROI
- Wilson in 35 Degrees or Less: 5-7 ATS, -21.1% ROI | 6-6 ML, -3.6% ROI
- Wilson in Wind of 10 mph or More: 12-9 ATS, 11.3% ROI | 16-5 ML, 12.4% ROI
The impact of these trends is minimized on the road … but, still, the trends point to the Steelers.
Ravens vs. Steelers Injury Report and External Factors
I won't touch on all the players on the injury report, but here are the key injuries that catch my eye.
Ravens: Notable Injuries
- WR Rashod Bateman (foot): Started the week with a full practice before suffering an injury on Wednesday and missing Thursday. Players with the dreaded "FP LP DNP" practice trend tend to miss at least one game, so I'm projecting him out.
- WR Nelson Agholor (concussion): Out after not practicing all week.
- WR Diontae Johnson (personal): Waived. The #RevengeGame is not to be.
The Ravens have a pass-catching cluster injury situation, especially with WR Deonte Harty (knee, IR) and TE Charlie Kolar (forearm, IR) unavailable.
Steelers: Notable Injuries
- WR George Pickens (hamstring): Didn't practice this week and will miss his third straight game.
- SS DeShon Elliott (hamstring): Will sit out second consecutive game.
- CB Donte Jackson (back): Exited last week early and got in just one limited practice before drawing a questionable tag. I tentatively project him out.
The Steelers will be without their No. 1 WR and possibly two secondary starters.
Ravens-Steelers External Factors
- Home-Field Advantage: The Ravens have had a middle-of-the-road home-field advantage over the past five years—but HFA is cut in half in divisional games, and the Ravens' HFA is diminished even further in this case because the Steelers also play on a similar grass surface at home.
- Travel: The Ravens have had just one away game since Week 13. For the Steelers, this is their second straight road game, fourth in five weeks, and fifth in seven. That matters.
- Rest: The Ravens should be fresh following their bye in Week 14 and easy 35-14 victory over the Giants in Week 15. The Steelers had their bye in Week 9 and since then have had four straight divisional matchups sandwiched between games with the upstart Commanders and streaking Eagles.
- Weather: The forecast calls for winds of 14 mph and a temperature of 32 degrees (per NFLWeather).
Ravens-Steelers Anytime TD Player Prop
- Derrick Henry Anytime TD: -185 (FanDuel)
- Proj: 0.85 TDs | -248.8 to Score
Henry opened the season by scoring in 11 straight games (including Week 11 against the Steelers) … but he now hasn't scored in three consecutive contests.
Still, he leads the league with 15 TDs from scrimmage, and he's the No. 5 RB with 16 goal-line carries.
I think the market is discounting him too much because of his recent scoring drought.
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
- Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)