Geoff Ulrich examines the best bets and picks for Cowboys-Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 16.

The Buccaneers sit at 8-6 heading into Week 16 and are firmly in control of their destiny. If they win out, they not only make the playoffs but win the division. Lose even once and they risk getting bypassed by the Falcons, who sit one game behind them but with the tiebreaker in hand (having beaten Tampa Bay twice this season). 

The three-game race to the playoffs for the Buccaneers isn’t arduous (they play Dallas, Carolina, and New Orleans), but this week’s game is on the road, and will take place in prime time at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. 

Tampa Bay did get some good news this week as rookie RB Bucky Irving practiced and has been declared good to go for this game already. His improving health is a big plus for this offense, but they will likely be down TE Cade Otton and Safety Antonio Winfield for this week’s game. Notable absences for a team that can’t afford a letup. 

Baker Mayfield continued his hot stretch by throwing 4 TD passes last week against the Chargers and completing 83% of his passes. He also has 5 INTs over his last three starts but provides the Buccaneers with a significant edge at QB this week, ranking 10th in EPA per play among 35 QBs who have played 250 snaps or more this season, compared to Cooper Rush who ranks 34th out 35. 

Despite the poor QB play, Dallas did get some momentum back on offense last week against the Panthers, as their RBs combined for 179 rushing yards. Most of those yards came from the legs of Rico Dowdle, who reeled off 149 yards and took 25 carries. 

For the season, the Cowboys rank just 28th in EPA per play on offense and will need to see continued improved play from Rush, who threw for 3 TDs last week but completed just 62% of his passes. 

So is Dallas worth backing in this spot as big home underdogs, or does Tampa Bay continue to roll in what projects to be a higher-scoring affair?

We’ll go over that and more below, along with the best bets for this week’s SNF game.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.0 (-105; bet365) vs. Cowboys +4.0 (-115; bet365) 48.0

Injury notes Buccaneers:

WR Kameron Johnson (ankle) Out

S Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee) Out

LB K.J. Britt (ankle) Doubtful

TE Cade Otton (knee) Out

Injury Notes Cowboys:

WR Jalen Brooks (knee) Out

CB Trevon Diggs (knee) Out

G T.J. Brass (thigh) Questionable

LB Eric Kendricks (personal/calf) - Questionable

CB Jourdan Lewis (elbow) Questionable

DE Micah Parsons (illness) Questionable

Spread and Total

There are a few injury designations to watch for this game on the Cowboys' side. 

Names like Micah Parsons and Eric Kendricks, who are huge pieces of an already injury-riddled Cowboys defense, are listed as questionable. I expect both men to play but if even one missed it would be a boon to the Buccaneers, who have been running the ball extremely well of late and have a healthy Bucky Irving to carry much of the load. 

Even if the Cowboys get all their defensive stalwarts to suit up for this game I’m not sure it will be enough to keep the Buccaneers from winning and covering the 4.0 point spread. 

Tampa Bay is going to be able to pound the ball with both White and Irving against this weaker rush defense, and that should get the Cowboys on their heels and open up some shots for Mike Evans, who has plenty of monetary incentive to finish strong. 

Dallas played well last week but Tampa Bay is still somewhat undervalued in my opinion in the overall market and I don’t buy Cooper Rush and the Cowboys being able to push around the Buccaneers defenders like they did the Panthers. I like Tampa Bay at -4.0 (-110) in this spot.  

I logged an over on the 47.0 total earlier in our Free NFL Bet Tracker early in the week. Our Game Model has this matchup projected at 49.7 points so even with the move up to 48.0, I would still recommend the over as a play. 

With both of these teams featuring 9-5 records to the over this season, it’s not hard to see this one turning into a shootout at some point and delivering us northward of 50 points. 

I break down the best props and more for the Buccaneers at Cowboys below. 

Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Best Bets: 

Brandin Cooks Over 2.5 receptions Rec Yards (-128; FanDuel)

Cooks didn’t look so hot in his first two games, but the Cowboys have been managing his snaps and he did score a short TD vs the Bengals in Week 14. 

Week 15 was a much bigger step in the right direction. He saw a 21% increase in snaps played, posted a 93% route rate, and managed to haul in 3 catches on 5 targets for 34 yards. 

When he’s healthy, Cooks is the Cowboys' clearcut No. 2 WR and second-best option in the receiving game. This week, he’ll also be going up against a Tampa Bay secondary that ranks 30th in Success Rate vs. the pass and has allowed the third most receptions to opposing WRs this year. 

Cooks is projected for 3.0 receptions this week so even with his over juiced a little at -125 there is some value showing on that side. 

I’d play this one up to -140. If his yardage total stays under 29.5 you could also think about either combining overs (receptions/yards) or betting the yardage on its own if the line moves too far on receptions. 

Rachaad White Anytime TD (+140; FanDuel)

I wrote about White’s TD prop earlier in the week in our Week 16 Anytime TD article. 

Here’s some of what I wrote. 

"It won’t shock me if all three Tampa Bay running backs score in this game. Dallas has allowed the second most rushing TDs to opposing RBs on the season and ranks 32nd in EPA per rush. 

I like Bucky Irving to potentially knock it out of the park and hit some of his alternative rushing lines again but if we are talking about straight-anytime TD bets, White has a little more appeal for me. At +125 his odds are bigger than Irving’s (+100) despite having now scored 9 TDs over his last eight games. 

He’s also got 7 red-zone touches to Irving’s 3 over the last two games and with Irving banged up, which carries far less in-game injury risk than the rookie…

… Add in White’s extra versatility in the passing game (6 receiving TDs this year) and the +125 Anytime TD odds (44% implied probability) for White to find the end zone seems to be offering up some value.”

With his line sitting at +140 now at FanDuel, I’d be fine playing this down to +125 if needed. 

Underdog 3-Way (6.73x multiplier)

• Brandin Cooks Higher 3.5 receptions
• Rachaad White higher 16.5 receiving yards
• Baker Mayfield higher 244.5 passing yards

I like this spot a lot for White, who is going up against a Cowboys defense that is soft against opposing RBs in general and doesn’t tackle or cover well against receiving backs. For the season they have allowed the ninth most receiving yards to the position and have allowed three different backs to go for 50+ receiving yards against them. 

Mayfield is projected in the high 240s for passing yards on Fantasy Life this week and with Dallas second tp last in yards per attempt allowed (7.3) I think eventually Baker does go higher on this line. 

We’ll need Dallas to be semi-competent on offense, but with Dowdle running well and Cooks healthy, they should be able to get there for us. 

I played Cooks’ alternate line receptions up to 3.5 in this lineup, and if Mayfield and White both hit there is a better chance for Cooks getting 6+ targets in this spot. Alternatively, you could also look to play the higher on his receiving yards to help correlate and boost the payout. 

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