Super Bowl 60 Score Prediction and Projections: Sam Darnold, Drake Maye and More
Matthew Freedman previews everything you need to know for Super Bowl 60, going position by position and answering the burning questions.
Super Bowl 60.
Seahawks. Patriots.
The scriptwriters have outdone themselves.
In this piece, I provide my projections (as of Jan. 29) for Super Bowl 60, with some notes and analysis.
To see our full Super Bowl fantasy rankings and player projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Super Bowl 60 Score Prediction
Market numbers via our NFL Betting Odds page. Projections via our Fantasy Life Game Model. Updates will be made as we get closer to the game.
- Spread: Seahawks -4.5
- Total: 45.5
- Seahawks: 25
- Patriots: 20
Our projections are in line with the current market and lean slightly to the Seahawks.
We have the Seahawks power rated +3.5 points ahead of the Patriots on a neutral field.
- Seahawks: +9 (No. 1)
- Patriots: +5.5 (No. 4)
But this isn't a totally neutral field: The Seahawks play at Levi's Stadium every season because the 49ers are in their division. In fact, the Seahawks just played there in Week 18. So that familiarity gives them a small locational edge.
And then there's the rest, travel and kickoff time, all of which favor the Seahawks.
- Rest: They got the Wild Card bye, played at home for two games and now get another week off before the Super Bowl.
- Travel: The last time they traveled was Week 18 to nearby San Francisco, whereas the Pats have a cross-country flight after playing in Denver in the AFC Championship.
- 6:30 pm ET Kickoff: The Seahawks have played 14 of their games this year in the late-afternoon or primetime windows, whereas the Pats have played 12 at 1 pm ET.
Put all of that together, and that's how we get from a starting point of Seahawks -3.5 to a final projection of Seahawks -5.0. Either way, our game model likes the Seahawks to win by more than a field goal.
That said … my gut likes the Pats. Throughout his career, HC Mike Vrabel has markedly outperformed expectations as an underdog of at least three points: 29-16-2 ATS (22.8% ROI, per Action Network). Plus, underdogs of at least +4.5 are 12-2-2 ATS since Super Bowl 30.
And the contrarian in me takes notice that literally everyone at ESPN is picking the Seahawks. No offense to the worldwide leader, but when so many people are on one side of something like this, I almost always automatically want to take the other side (I'm lots of fun at parties).
People talk about how easy the path to the Super Bowl has been for the Patriots (and they're not wrong), but what about the Seahawks? Since the Week 8 bye, they haven't played a "real QB" outside of the divisional opponents they face on a regular basis.
Who was the best non-divisional QB the Seahawks faced this year? Maybe Baker Mayfield? What did Mayfield do against them in Week 5? He went 29-of-33 passing with 379 yards, two TDs, and no INTs in a 38-35 win … in Seattle.
And in three contests against the best QB they faced this year—Matthew Stafford—the Seahawks allowed 28.3 points per game.
I'm not suggesting the Seahawks are bad on defense. This year, they were No. 1 in defensive EPA (-0.113) and No. 3 in defensive SR (40.1%, per RBs Don't Matter). HC Mike Macdonald has done a remarkable job with the stop unit.
But the Seahawks aren't inevitable. Good QBs can have success against them, and the Pats have a good QB.
I'm not saying the Pats will win. If they cover, a three-point loss still feels like the likeliest outcome.
But I am saying this: If I were to bet on this game (and I haven't yet), I'd be tempted to trust my gut more than my model.
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Trends To Watch For Super Bowl 60
Since parting ways with the Jets in 2021, Seahawks QB Sam Darnold has been a highly profitable 33-21-1 ATS (17.8% ROI). And he has been even better over the past two years: 25-11-1 ATS (32.2%).
At the same time, Patriots QB Drake Maye is a lucrative 20-12 ATS (19.9%) for his career, and this season he has been especially valuable: 14-6 ATS (34.4%).
The market has been too low on both these QBs and teams for a while.
Fantasy Point Projections For Super Bowl 60
Although we're projecting a win for the Seahawks, I expect them to have similar overall fantasy production on offense (half-PPR scoring).
- Seahawks: 71.4
- Patriots: 70.1
But, of course, this also doesn't take into account special teams (kicking, returns). I won't insult you (or myself) by providing kicking projections below, but it is worth keeping special teams in mind. This year, the Pats have three kick/punt return TDs; the Seahawks, four.
This game might well be decided by a Rashid Shaheed or Marcus Jones score on special teams.
Seahawks: Super Bowl 60 Projected Box Scores
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20.2 | 29.4 | 220.3 | 1.60 | 0.78 | 2.5 | 8.8 | 0.08 | 15.0 |
Darnold has enjoyed a career Renaissance over the past two seasons (8.2 AY/A vs. 6.0 in 2018-23) … but he also had a bottom-three 14 INTs and league-worst 11 fumbles in the regular season.
In 11 games since the Week 8 bye, he has 18 combined INTs/fumbles.
Eight years into his NFL career, Darnold now looks like the best possible and imaginable version of himself … but he's still more than capable of turning the ball over four times in a game.
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | Pos | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | RB | 17.7 | 73.3 | 0.61 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 17.9 | 0.12 | 14.8 |
| George Holani | RB | 3.5 | 13.2 | 0.11 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5.9 | 0.09 | 3.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 0.5 | 2.6 | 0.01 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 87.0 | 0.46 | 14.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.00 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 34.0 | 0.28 | 6.9 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0.9 | 5.1 | 0.04 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 25.5 | 0.17 | 5.3 |
| Jake Bobo | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7.8 | 0.12 | 1.8 |
| Dareke Young | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 0.00 | 0.5 |
| AJ Barner | TE | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.05 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 27.3 | 0.19 | 5.8 |
| Elijah Arroyo | TE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7.0 | 0.15 | 2.0 |
| Eric Saubert | TE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 0.01 | 0.5 |
| Nick Kallerup | TE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 0.3 |
No. 2 RB Zach Charbonnet (knee, IR) exited the Divisional Round early and missed all of the next week. In those two games, Walker had 256 yards and four TDs on 38 carries, seven targets and a season-best 83 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Even with new No. 2 RB George Holani getting some work in the NFC Championship (three carries, four targets, 23 snaps), Walker should dominate usage in the Seahawks backfield.
What really needs to be said about first-team All-Pro WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba? He's the strong favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year (-1100, FanDuel). In the regular season, he was No. 1 in the league with a 36% target share and 89% WOPR, which he leveraged into a league-high 1,793 yards receiving. In fantasy ranks for this game, he's the No. 1 WR, and it's not even close.
You can see aDOT, air yards, and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.
Patriots: Super Bowl 60 Projected Box Scores
Quarterback
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 20.5 | 30.4 | 226.9 | 1.40 | 0.67 | 6.1 | 29.9 | 0.21 | 17.6 |
Maye is now a distant No. 2 to win MVP (+650, FanDuel) … but he finished the regular season No. 1 in AY/A (9.5) and composite EPA + CPOE (0.223). He probably won't win the award, and he has struggled in the postseason (6.8 AY/A, 15 sacks, six fumbles, two INTs), but Maye—at least to me—is still clearly the best QB in this game.
His rushing ability (24-141-1 in the postseason, 103-450-4 in regular season) gives him a reliable edge that Darnold lacks.
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | Pos | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 16.8 | 66.6 | 0.49 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 27.4 | 0.13 | 14.6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 2.7 | 10.7 | 0.08 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 0.03 | 2.4 |
| Jack Westover | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.00 | 0.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 51.0 | 0.31 | 9.2 |
| Mack Hollins | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 34.0 | 0.20 | 6.1 |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 35.5 | 0.22 | 6.2 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.00 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 15.7 | 0.11 | 2.9 |
| Kyle Williams | WR | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 0.11 | 1.6 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 41.7 | 0.20 | 7.3 |
| Austin Hooper | TE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 9.6 | 0.09 | 2.0 |
No. 2 RB TreVeyon Henderson is the more explosive player, and he finished the season with superior production (1,132 yards, 10 TDs vs. 948, nine), but ever since returning from his midseason injury, No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson has been the more impressive player.
While the Pats eased Stevenson into his Week 12 return (31% snap rate), in the eight games since, he has been the team's workhorse (770 yards, six TDs on a 77 Utilization Score), so much so that in the AFC Championship, he almost never left the field (94% snap rate). With his three-down ability, Stevenson is neck and neck with Walker in our rankings, and in Guillotine Leagues™ he's a locked-in top-three pick.
Try out our Super Bowl Guilloteenie contests!
Stefon Diggs is the clear No. 1 WR for the Pats, and he enjoyed a bounceback season (85-1,013-4 receiving, 102 targets), but Henry (60-768-7), Boutte (33-551-6), Hollins (46-550-2) and Douglas (31-447-3) could all play nontrivial roles as well in this game. For fantasy, Henry is the clear No. 1 TE … but would it really be surprising if Boutte and Hollins had more yards than Diggs and Henry in the Super Bowl? Nah.
Super Bowl 60: Final Thoughts
Which Team Has the Better QB?
Patriots.
I respect how much Darnold has improved since his time with the Jets—but Maye is an MVP-caliber pro.
Which Team Has the More Proven Offensive Playcaller?
Patriots.
I know Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak is a hot candidate in HC circles … but Pats OC Josh McDaniels is so good as a playcaller that he has been hired for two HC gigs already. Sure, he was also fired from those jobs, but that has more to do with McDaniels as a leader and organizer than scheme designer and coordinator.
Plus, Kubiak has been interviewing for HC jobs throughout the playoffs. McDaniels hasn't. That might matter.
Which Team Has the More Proven Head Coach?
Patriots.
I'm impressed with Macdonald, who is 24-10 in the regular season and 2-0 in the postseason. Still, it's just two seasons.
Vrabel had winning campaigns in each of his first four years with the Titans, going 41-24 in the regular season and 2-3 in the postseason in that span. In 2019, he got the Titans to the AFC Championship, where they lost against QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. In 2021, he won Coach of the Year.
In 2022-23, he went 13-21, missed the playoffs both years, and lost his job … but I think that has more to do with organizational dysfunction by the Titans than any ineptitude of Vrabel.
In his first season with the Pats—with a new coaching staff and an unproven second-year QB—they've rebuilt the roster, lost just one game since October, and reached the Super Bowl.
No disrespect to Macdonald, but Vrabel is the more proven of the two, and what he has done this year might be more impressive.
Which Team Has the More Underappreciated Defense?
Patriots.
The Seahawks certainly have the better defensive unit … but when the Pats are fully healthy, with DTs Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Khyiris Tonga, EDGEs Harold Landry and K'Lavon Chaisson, LB Robert Spillane, and CBs Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones, they can compete with anyone.
For the season (including playoffs), the Pats are No. 5 in defensive EPA (-0.081). Since the Week 14 bye, they're No. 4 (-0.144). In the postseason, they've been No. 2 (-0.296).
If the Pats harassed Darnold into two INTs and two fumbles in this game, would it surprise anybody?
No.
Which Team Do I Want to Bet On?
Patriots.
Again, I don't have an official play on this game, and I'm yet to bet on it. Plus, my projections point to the Seahawks, and I hate going against my model.
But if I can get points on the team that has the better QB, the more proven OC and HC, and an underappreciated defense, I'll be tempted to do it.
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