Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens 

The spread for this game opened at 9.5 but was quickly bet down to 8.5 in spots as bettors seemed to think that 9.5 was too many points to be laying to what is suddenly a very perky Texans squad. Sharp money came in at 8.5 (via VSIN DraftKings betting splits) and pushed the spread back to 9.0-9.5 at most sportsbooks. 

As for the total, the game opened at 46.0 but has moved only in one direction (down) since open. Winds of 15-20mph and cool weather will be in store for this Saturday, which could hamper both teams' downfield passing game. 

From a matchup perspective, this game has exactly what the NFL wants: two of the best young QBs in the game going head-to-head. Lamar Jackson (soon-to-be two-time MVP) is an insanely difficult matchup for any defense. Unlike the stone-footed Joe Flacco—who the Texans sacked four times—Jackson won’t be as affected by the emerging Texans pass rush, which makes this a far tougher matchup for Houston. 

When QBs have had time to pass against the Texans, there have been issues. The Texans rated out just 27th in yards per pass attempt against and allowed the aforementioned Flacco to go crazy against them for 346 yards just four weeks ago. Jackson also ended the year on a high note, passing for 10.23 yards per attempt and 7 TDs over his last two starts. Helping Jackson even more in this game will be the fact that TE Mark Andrews has been activated off IR and will likely be active for this game. 

Even in limited snaps, Andrews is a tough matchup for the Texans. They have solid boundary corners but have allowed the fifth most fantasy points and receiving yards per game to opposing TEs this season. The practice reports on Andrews will be worth watching this week, but for the most part, Baltimore is healthy. S/Nickel back Kyle Hamilton got banged up late in the season but practiced last week and will likely be fine. Zay Flowers (calf), Marlon Humphrey (calf), Odafe Oweh (ankle), Malik Harrison (groin), and Del'Shawn Phillips (shoulder) were also banged up last week (and missed some practices), but none seem in danger of missing this game. 

The Texans also have a mostly clean injury report but will be without WR Noah Brown (IR). That means Nico Collins will again be getting main targeting in this matchup against a tough Ravens secondary that allowed just 5.1 yards per attempt against this season (1st in the league). With Brown out, don’t be shocked if TE Dalton Schultz ends up having a big day from a volume and yards perspective. The Ravens struggled at points to guard against opposing TEs and, as mentioned before, S Kyle Hamilton has been banged up at various points this season—and may not quite be 100%. 

The Texans will almost certainly need CJ Stroud, Collins, and Schultz to be brilliant in this spot, but RB Devin Singletary (13-66-1) may be a key factor in this game as well. The Ravens allowed 5.2 yards per carry against down the stretch and have allowed over 100 yards rushing to four different RBs over their last five games. 

I’m inclined to side with the Texans from a spread perspective. Baltimore is undoubtedly a very solid team, but they are facing a Houston team that may still be underrated just a touch by the general public and media—who are likely seeing this as another spot to fade a rookie QB in the playoffs. 

The under in this game is likely my favorite play at the moment, along with Dalton Schultz over props (his opening line was released at 36.5 yards). The weather in Baltimore is going to be a factor, and both of these teams are top 10 in rush rate over the last three weeks. Houston likely won’t abandon the run altogether if they do get behind, either, given how much success they have had with Singletary of late. I see a slower-paced game that likely stays close until the end, with the most likely ending being that the Ravens and Lamar Jackson close out a close win and advance to the conference championship.