Thanksgiving NFL Best Bets. Sides, Props, Parlays, and more to bet.
Matt LaMarca breaks down the three-game Thanksgiving NFL slate and offers his best bets for each, including props, sides, totals, and parlays.
Thanksgiving is one of the best times of the year. It celebrates one of my favorite pastimes – abundance. You like food? Go eat until you put yourself in a coma. You like parades? Here are some 100-foot tall balloons. Want to spend time with your family? Enjoy seeing every aunt, uncle, and cousin even remotely related to you.
The football is in abundance as well. We’ll have three games to enjoy on Thursday: Packers at Lions at 12:30 p.m. ET, Commanders at Cowboys at 4 p.m. ET, and 49ers at Seahawks at 8:20 p.m. ET.
All three of these games feature a spread of at least a touchdown, but will any of them be competitive? Let’s dive in to some of the best bets for the Thanksgiving slate.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -7.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 47.0
- Moneylines: Packers +290/Lions -375
These NFC North rivals have already met once this season, and the Lions absolutely rolled in that contest. They raced out to a 27-3 lead at halftime and ultimately cruised to a comfortable 34-20 victory. That was more than enough to cover the 2.5-point spread, and the game went over the 45-point total.
The Lions struggled for most of last week’s game vs. the Bears, but they’ve been one of the best teams in football this season. They’re led by a fantastic offense, ranking second in the league in yards per game and sixth in points. They’re also eighth in EPA/play.
Their defense is improved from last season, although perhaps not as much as we thought early in the year. They were seventh in defensive EPA through the first six weeks, but they’ve shown some slippage of late. They’re 31st in defensive EPA over the past five weeks, making them a middle-of-the-pack squad overall. That said, they have been a bit unlucky from a scoring perspective, ranking ninth in yards per game allowed but 22nd in points.
On the other side, Jordan Love has had an up-and-down season in his first year as the Packers’ starting QB. He’s had some excellent performances, but he’s also had some clunkers. In the team’s recent wins against the Rams and Chargers, Love completed 47 of 66 passes for 550 yards and three touchdowns. In their loss to the Steelers, he had two interceptions and averaged just 5.98 adjusted yards per attempt.
Still, there has been more good than bad with Love overall, especially when compared to some of the league’s other young quarterbacks.
The big news for the Packers heading into this contest is their injury report. Aaron Jones will almost certainly miss this contest, leaving A.J. Dillon to handle most of the running back responsibilities. That’s a big downgrade.
The team also has a bunch of other names on the injury report, including some of their top defenders in De’Vondre Campbell, Jaire Alexander, and Kenny Clark. Whether or not those guys can suit up will have an impact, so make sure to monitor the injury updates and inactives leading up to kickoff.
Best Bet: Over 46.5 (-118; FanDuel)
This line is up to 47.0 across most of the industry, which is one of the most important numbers when it comes to NFL totals. That makes the over 46.5 at FanDuel inherently valuable.
I think the Lions should be able to cover the 7.5 – the sharps are all over Detroit in this spot – but I’m most confident in their ability to score points. They had their way with the Packers in their first meeting, and their offense has rolled in good matchups basically all season.
The bigger question is whether or not the Lions defense can slow down the Packers. That should be a bit easier without Jones, but I still think the Packers should be able to score some points. Even if they struggle out of the gates, there’s always a chance for the Packers to get some points in garbage time like they did in the first matchup.
Top Prop: David Montgomery Under 15.5 carries (-130; FanDuel)
- Bet To: Under 15.5 (-150)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 13.7 carries
Matthew Freedman, Geoff Ulrich, and I had a good discussion about the Lions’ backfield on our Thanksgiving Best Bets show:
Montgomery may still be the Lions' top runner – especially around the goal line – but his utilization has not been the same since returning to the lineup two games ago. He’s played on 38% and 41% of the snaps, and he’s managed 39% and 57% rushing shares. Montgomery was at 59% or higher in each of his first four games this season, so Jahmyr Gibbs has definitely cut into his workload.
Given how effective Gibbs has been, I don’t see that changing any time soon. Montgomery still has the efficiency to produce with fewer touches, but I think the days of him seeing 15+ carries are gone in all but the most favorable game scripts. I’d play the under on 15.5 up to -150.
You can tail both Montgomery and the over on FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of $5 or more below.
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Same-Game Parlay (+950; BetMGM)
- Lions -6.5
- Over 46.5
- Montgomery Anytime TD
- Love 250+ passing yards
- Love 2+ passing TDs
Let’s keep things relatively simple for our first SGP. After all, this game is merely the appetizer.
I’m going to start by taking the Lions, but I’m going to grab the -6.5 instead of the -7.5. Seven is a key number in NFL betting and I want to protect myself from a late backdoor touchdown from the Packers.
An anytime TD from Montgomery also correlates beautifully with a Lions win. He has eight touchdowns in his seven games this season, and the only game he didn’t score in was the game he exited early due to injury.
After that, let’s look to the over and Love. If this game does go over, we’re going to need some help from the Packers. Their best chance is with Love, especially with Jones not expected to suit up.
You can tail the Same Game Parlay at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
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Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
- Spread: Cowboys -12.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 48.5
- Moneylines: Commanders +500/Cowboys -700
The Cowboys are like the peak LeBron James Miami Heat. You might think you’re hanging around, and then you’re down 21 points in the blink of an eye. They’re bullies, and I mean that in the best possible way.
The Cowboys have had no problems beating up on inferior teams this season. In their seven wins, only one has come by less than 20 points. Their average margin of victory this season is an eye-popping 25.1. They’ve had some bad losses when matched up against good teams, but they’ve had no issues steamrolling the dregs of the league.
Last week’s game vs. the Panthers was a perfect example. They were “only” up seven in the fourth quarter, but a Tony Pollard touchdown and a Daron Bland pick-six made it a three-score game in 10 seconds.
The real question is – just how bad are the Commanders?
If you only looked at last week, you’d probably say pretty bad. They lost outright to the Giants as roughly 10-point favorites, who were down to their third string quarterback. It doesn’t get much worse than that.
Still, the Commanders did have more than 400 yards of total offense in that contest, they just shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. The Giants defense deserves some credit for that, but most of Washington’s wounds were self-inflicted.
Washington has played a few really close games against good teams this season. They’ve played two tight contests against the Eagles, and they lost by three to the Seahawks in Seattle.
The only issue is that this is a brutal matchup in the trenches for Washington. Their offensive line has been dismal this season, and the Cowboys have one of the best pass-rushes in the league. If they can’t slow down Micah Parsons and company, this game could get ugly.
Best Bet: Commanders +12.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Given everything I mentioned above, I totally understand backing the Cowboys in this spot. When they win, they tend to win big, and this matchup sets up really well for them.
This is also a spot where Dak Prescott has historically dominated. During the regular season, he’s 46-31-2 ATS as a favorite, 31-22-1 ATS at home, and 26-11 ATS in divisional matchups. Add it all up, and Prescott is a sparkling 13-4 ATS as a home divisional favorite, including 6-2 when favored by at least a touchdown.
Nov 12, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) runs with the ball after catching a pass in the first quarter against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Still, the Commanders have not been a team that has gotten blown out often. Only two of their seven losses have come by double figures, and one of them was last week vs. the Giants. New York needed a late pick-six to push the final margin to 12, so that game was closer than the final score indicates.
Anecdotally, I also just think one of these underdogs is going to cover. The sportsbooks are going to have TONS of liability on the three favorites in these matchups. Moneyline parlays, same-game parlays, straight bets – what kind of casual bettor isn’t picking the Lions, Cowboys, and 49ers? It just seems too easy, and if I know anything as a sports bettor, it’s that picking NFL games isn’t easy.
Of the trio, the Commanders seem most likely to cover. They can throw the ball, so even if the fall into a big hole, I think a backdoor cover in garbage time is a possibility.
Personally, I’m waiting until as close to kickoff as possible to potentially lock in a play on Washington. This number should only continue to rise, so if it gets to 13.0, 13.5, or even 14.0, it only makes the Commanders more appealing.
You can tail the Commanders on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place an initial $5 bet!
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Top Prop: Tony Pollard Under 15.5 carries (-130; FanDuel)
- Play To: Under 15.5 (-150)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 15.1
Our projections aren’t quite as bullish on the Pollard under as the Montgomery under, but it’s another bet that I like.
It’s no secret that Pollard has been one of the biggest disappointments for fantasy purposes this season. He finally made it back into the endzone last week, but he still had a pretty pedestrian day on the ground. He finished with just 12 carries, his seventh straight game with 15 totes or less.
For the season, Pollard has handled just 55% of the team’s rushing attempts, with Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn eating into his workload much more than anticipated.
It’s a matchup that does set up as a favorable one for Pollard, but he’s had plenty of those in recent weeks. Ultimately, if this game does turn into a blowout, expect to see Vaughn or Dowdle out there killing the clock instead of Pollard. If the game stays competitive, expect the Cowboys to continue their pass-heavy ways: They’ve had a pass rate over expectation (PROE) of at least +7% in three of their past four contests.
Regardless, it seems unlikely that this is all of a sudden a week where Pollard gets to 20 carries.
Same-Game Parlay (+1450; BetMGM)
- Commanders +14.5
- Over 48.5
- Sam Howell 3+ touchdown passes
- Logan Thomas anytime TD
Typically, pairing a large underdog with an over isn’t advised. The more points that are scored, the less value that the points towards the spread matter. For example, having 14.5 points in a game where only 30 points are scored is obviously more valuable than if there are 70.
Still, I think it makes sense in this scenario. I don’t see the Commanders’ defense slowing down Prescott – they couldn’t even slow down Tommy DeVito – so their best chance of covering is a high-scoring matchup. Something like 38-28 or 41-27.
In that scenario, I like most of the scoring to come from the passing game. Howell is quietly tied for seventh in the NFL in touchdown passes, albeit for a team that has yet to go on bye. He’s had at least three touchdown tosses in three of 11 games.
Thomas has also been one of Howell’s favorite targets around the goal line. He has 22% of the team’s endzone targets for the year, tying him with Terry McLaurin for the top mark on the squad. That includes 50% of the team’s endzone targets in Week 11.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
- Spread: 49ers -7.5 (-105; BetMGM)
- Total: 44.0
- Moneylines: 49ers -375/Seahawks +290
I think the 49ers are the best team in football. They’re first in EPA/play offensively and fifth on defense. The Cowboys are the only other team that is top five on both sides of the ball, and the 49ers already whitewashed the Cowboys 42-10 earlier this season.
San Francisco moved to the No. 1 spot in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings in Week 12, and I firmly agree with that assessment. Outside of a three-week stretch where the team lost Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams to injuries, this team has shown zero flaws. They are loaded from top-to-bottom, with the only possible exception being quarterback.
If you’re at all skeptical of San Francisco, it’s likely due to Brock Purdy. He doesn’t have the pedigree of a typical NFL starter after being drafted with the final pick in 2022.
It’s true that Purdy has an abundance of supporting talent to work with, giving him an easier job than any other QB in football. Still, what Purdy has accomplished is remarkable. He’s first in the league in EPA + CPOE composite. He’s first in QBR. He’s first in adjusted yards per attempt by a wide margin. If you take any statistical measure for the quarterback position, there’s a good chance that Purdy is at or near the top of the list.
He’s coming off one of his best games as a professional in Week 11, completing 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards and three touchdowns. He finished with a perfect passer rating, making him the first 49ers QB to accomplish that feat since Joe Montana.
It’s simply not possible to look at Purdy and call him a “system quarterback” anymore. We’ve seen other quarterbacks play in the Kyle Shanahan system, and none of them have had the same success as Purdy.
On the other side, Seattle’s quarterback situation is still up in the air. Geno Smith exited last week’s game vs. the Rams before re-entering for the final drive. He led the team into field goal range to pull off a potential comeback win, but Jason Myers ultimately couldn’t get the job done from 55 yards out.
Smith was listed as a limited participant at Tuesday’s practice, and it remains to be seen if he’ll actually suit up vs. the 49ers. I think there’s a good chance that he does, but a final call might not be made until Thanksgiving.
If Smith is unable to go, Drew Lock will make the start vs. San Francisco. Lock may have more swag than the typical backup QB, but his results for his career have not been impressive. He completed just two of six passes with an interception in relief of Smith last week, good for an average of -7.0 adjusted yards per attempt.
The Seahawks are also missing running back Kenneth Walker, so they’re the more injured team in addition to being the worse team overall.
Best Bet: 49ers -7.0 (-115; FanDuel)
If it’s not already clear, I’m all over the 49ers in this spot. I locked in the 49ers -6.0 when this number was first released on Sunday, and they’re now up to -7.5 or even -8.0 across most of the industry.
If you can still find a reasonably priced -7.0 – there’s a -115 available on FanDuel at the time of writing – I recommend grabbing it as soon as possible. There’s only one direction where this number is going.
The Seahawks are not a bad football team, but they’re simply not in the 49ers weight class. The 49ers beat the Seahawks by eight points in Seattle last year, and that was in Purdy’s second career start. I don’t think this game is close with Smith under center, and it could get really ugly if Lock starts.
The 49ers have won each game this season but at least a touchdown, and the only reason that number isn’t 10 is that Sean McVay chose to kick a meaningless field goal as time expired in Week 2. In other words, this team has been winning big all season, and I see no reason why that changes on Thursday.
Top Prop: Zach Charbonnet anytime touchdown (+130; Caesars)
In addition to gluttony, Thanksgiving is also about sharing. I’ve never been good at that – just ask my kindergarten teacher – but I’m getting a little better every day. Instead of another boring prop from me, let’s go with a fun touchdown prop from Geoff.
At the Fantasy Life Thanksgiving table, Geoff is the cool uncle, while I’m the guy telling you to sell your crypto and invest in something tangible like real estate.
There will be a lot of Christian McCaffrey anytime TD bets for this game. He’s scored in all but one game this year and it’s hard to argue there isn’t value with a McCaffrey anytime TD – even at short odds. However, if you are looking to branch out – or simply can’t stomach betting a player for an anytime TD at -200 or shorter – then I’d consider looking to the other side and Seattle’s new lead back, rookie Zach Charbonnet.
Under new DC Steve Wilks, the 49ers have regressed this year against the run and, to date, have yielded a rushing TD to an opposing RB in five of their 10 games. With most of the workload to himself, Kenneth Walker (doubtful) had already scored seven times in 10 games this season and Charbonnet will have little competition for touches this week given both the efficiency he’s shown (4.92 ypc) and the fact the Seahawks coaching staff clearly want to get him the ball more.
You can tail the TD bet at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below!
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Same-Game Parlay (+1000; BetMGM)
- 49ers -13.5
- Purdy 2+ touchdown passes
- Christian McCaffrey anytime TD
- McCaffrey 145+ rushing + receiving yards
I call this the 49ers’ special. I have zero clue what to expect from the Seattle offense in this matchup, especially if Lock makes the start.
I’m taking the 49ers on the alternate spread, bumping them up slightly to -13.5. I’m also going to pair that with 2+ touchdown passes for Purdy and an anytime TD for McCaffrey, with both seem to happen every single week.
I’ll also add in at least 145 rushing + receiving yards for McCaffrey. He’s one of the most utilized players in the league, and he’s capable of making a huge impact as a runner and a receiver. Instead of picking a lane, let’s get the best of both worlds by targeting the rushing and receiving yards.
I hope that was as fun for you to read as it was for me to write. In all seriousness, I am truly thankful for the awesome community we’ve started to build at Fantasy Life, and I’m blessed to be a part of it. I hope you all have a wonderful Thanksgiving and that we all make some money!
