Thanksgiving NFL Prop Bets. All in on the Dallas Cowboys.
Ian Hartitz breaks down nine Thanksgiving prop bets to consider betting on turkey day, including Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and more.
Thanksgiving combines enough football and food to put up with the worst that your family can offer. Talk about one helluva holiday.
Of course, the only thing cooler than watching football and eating all day is watching football and eating all day while making some freaking money, baby.
What follows are nine Thanksgiving prop bets that I will personally be putting some money on this week. Lines are as of Tuesday afternoon at FanDuel Sportsbook. Please gamble responsibly on a sport that doesn’t even feature a round ball.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 27.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Fantasy Life projections currently have Gibbs at 35 yards this week — and for good reason: The rookie has been on absolute fire ever since returning from injury in Week 7:
- Week 7: 9-58-0 (10 targets)
- Week 8: 5-37-0 (5)
- Week 9: BYE
- Week 10: 3-35-0 (5)
- Week 11: 6-59-0 (6)
The latter two performances featured the return of David Montgomery, but unlike earlier in the season, Gibbs has continued to be the clear-cut lead back in pass-first situations.
Even somewhat annoying early-season usage hasn’t stopped the Lions from feeding the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 12 overall pick in the pass game all season long: Only Alvin Kamara (8.0, lol) is averaging more targets per game than Gibbs (5.5) this season.
Throw in the potential absence of No. 1 LB De’Vondre Campbell (neck), and Gibbs has a winnable matchup on top of his always-present combination of volume and receiving skill.
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Lions WR Kalif Raymond OVER 12.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
What’s the point of grinding Thanksgiving Day props if you aren’t taking the over on the Lions’ No. 4 WR?
Here’s the thing about Raymond: He’s one of the most efficient auxiliary receivers in football. Small-sample size be damned, the pint-sized (5-foot-9, 162 pounds), speedy (4.39-second 40-yard dash) veteran (30 next August) has been making the most out of his opportunities ever since joining the Lions in 2021, ultimately clearing this mark in 32 of 40 (80%) of his games with at least 10 snaps over the past three seasons — including in eight out of 10 games this season.
Jameson Williams’ (66% route rate in Week 11) ascension into three-WR sets didn’t result in fewer routes for Raymond (32%); it was actually Josh Reynolds (71% — lowest in a non-injured game this season) who took more of a back seat.
Raymond ranks third on the Lions in total screen targets (6) and is tied for third in deep-ball looks (5): typically brilliant designed looks that make his low average target total more bearable, especially when they are set to come against a Packers defenses that would have given up well north of 300 yards against Justin Herbert last week if his pass-catchers didn’t all have a pregame meal solely consisting of butterfingers.
I wouldn’t bet the house here, but the car? Now we’re talking.
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Commanders QB Sam Howell UNDER 265.5 passing yards (-111, Caesars)
Yes, Howell has a league-high 3,038 passing yards at the moment and has cleared the 300-yard mark in three of his last four games. The Commanders have a +7% dropback over expected rate this season and have generally been willing to throw the damn ball.
Also yes, this is the Cowboys defense we’re talking about here going up against the man on pace to be sacked an NFL-record 79 times this season. While Howell has gotten a little better recently, he’s ultimately taken at least three sacks in all but one game this season.
No QB is expected to be under more consistent duress this week against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ league-best defense in pressure rate.
A likely negative game script — the Cowboys are currently 11-point favorites — will assuredly lead to plenty of pass attempts, but this certainly wouldn’t be the first time Micah Parsons and company have faced an offense in comeback mode this season. And yet, only Brock Purdy (252) has reached even 230 passing yards against this group through 11 weeks of action. This includes guys like Justin Herbert (227) and Jalen Hurts (207); largely nothing has come easy through the air against this complete pass defense all season long.
Call me Captain Under(wear), because I’m going low here and am backed up by Fantasy Life projections having Howell at “just” 256 passing yards this week.
You can tail the under on Caesars Sportsbook, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below!
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Commanders WR Curtis Samuel UNDER 29.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Similar idea to Howell’s under, but Samuel also has quietly lost his full-time role in three-WR sets ever since returning from injury. This line isn’t too far off Samuel’s season-long average of 34.3 receiving yards per game; just realize he hasn’t managed to come close to clearing that mark since mid-October:
- Week 7: 4-25-0 (53% route rate)
- Week 8: 4-22-0 (20% — injured)
- Week 10: 2-6-0 (53%)
- Week 11: 1-5-0 (42% before being ejected)
Samuel was booted out of last week’s game for seemingly sticking up for QB Sam Howell after a physical TD run, but it’s always possible head coach Ron Rivera doesn’t view the infraction too favorably. I’d be surprised if Samuel was benched — either way, the usage already wasn’t moving in a great direction: Samuel’s 13.0% target share on the season already ranks fourth on the team and is lately being eaten into by both Byron Pringle and Dyami Brown.
The 27-year-old WR has totaled just 36 total receiving yards in three appearances against the Cowboys since 2021. Samuel’s average of 6.7 yards per target ranks 45th among 55 WRs with at least 50 targets this season. Gimme the under — Fantasy Life projections have Samuel at just 23 receiving yards.
Commanders RB Brian Robinson 60+ Rushing Yards (+220, FanDuel)
The Cowboys defense ranks among the league’s best units in just about any overall efficiency metric, thanks to the reality that they are among the game’s most elite at shutting down opposing passing attacks. This is pivotal in the year 2023 for the real-life efforts of, you know, winning football games.
That said: Teams have been able to run the ball on Dallas just a bit. This group is allowing below-average marks in yards per carry (4.1, tied for 17th) and yards before contact per carry (1.3, 19th), and each of James Conner (14-98-0), Jordan Mason (10-69-1) and Saquon Barkley (13-66-0) managed to clear this mark relatively easily even without the benefit of high-end volume.
Oct 29, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. (8) carries the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
A lack of carries shouldn’t be much of an issue for Robinson, who is averaging a clean 15 carries per game inside of this offense over the past two seasons. The potential return of Antonio Gibson (toe) wouldn’t help B-Rob’s receiving upside; just realize Gibson and No. 3 RB Chris Rodriguez are combining to average just 5.2 rush attempts per game this season
Don’t just take my word for it: Fantasy Life projections have Robinson going for 62.4 rushing yards on the benefit of 14.4 rush attempts this week. While we’ve seen Washington abandon the run in extremely negative game scripts before, I’m confident in B-Rob’s ability to make the most out of even potentially limited touches after seeing both Chuba Hubbard (10-57-0) and Miles Sanders (11-50-0) look plenty capable of gashing this defense last week.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb 2+ TDs (+650, FanDuel), Jake Ferguson OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
These two go together thanks to the Cowboys’ tendency to lean on their No. 1 WR and No. 1 TE against man-heavy defenses.
The Commanders have run the ninth-most primary man coverage schemes (Cover-1, Cover-0, 2-man) of any defense this season. Now, Dak Prescott is capable of defeating coverage schemes of all shapes and sizes when playing at the legit MVP level he’s currently operating at, but he’s been especially lethal vs. man-coverage this season, averaging a robust 9.1 yards per attempt with an 8-1 TD-INT ratio against these three looks compared to 7.1 yards per attempt with an 11-5 ratio against more prominent zone-heavy looks.
Intriguingly, CeeDee Lamb (35% target share) and Jake Ferguson (18%) have easily been Prescott’s favorite targets against man-coverage looks this year, easily topping their respective season-long 26.5% and 15.2% marks.
Scoring one — let alone two — TDs during any given week obviously isn’t easy, but Lamb is operating at a very high level right now and finds himself matched up against the Commanders’ league-worst scoring defense that has largely been embarrassed by competent passing attacks all season long. I like Lamb’s chances of pulling off this feat for the third time in five weeks thanks to his status as the best skill-position talent inside an offense implied to score a week-high 29.75 points — keep an eye on his ankle issue, but it doesn’t sound like a big deal.
As for Ferguson, he’s posted elite utilization for the better part of the last six weeks and has a season-long average (38.6) a full 4.1 yards ahead of this line ahead of a matchup with a Commanders defense that has operated as a bottom-eight defense in passer rating allowed to targets lined up either inline or in the slot this season.
Naturally, having confidence in these props has me leaning toward another bet involving this Cowboys passing attack…
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott 3+ Passing TDs (+220, FanDuel)
Dak has been on absolute fire ever since his dismal Week 5 performance against the 49ers:
- Week 6: 272 pass yards-1 TD-0 INT
- Week 7: Bye
- Week 8: 304-4-1
- Week 9: 374-3-0
- Week 10: 404-4-1
- Week 11: 189-2-0
Top-five in yards per attempt (7.7), passer rating (104), PFF pass grade (86.0) and EPA per dropback (+0.23): Prescott is engineering one of the most lethal passing games that the NFL has to offer at the moment.
While we already discussed Dak’s heightened efficiency against primary man-coverage defenses like the one he’ll face on Thursday afternoon, it’s tough to overstate just how rough this Commanders group has been as a whole this year:
- EPA allowed per pass attempt: +0.110 (28th)
- Yards per attempt allowed: 7.7 (26th)
- Explosive pass play rate allowed: 16.1% (28th)
- Pressure rate: 31.5% (26th)
- Pass TD rate allowed: 6.1% (32nd)
Reminder: Most of that is from games with recently traded EDGE rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat — that pressure rate drops to 23.7% (31st) when just looking at the last three weeks. This defense just made Tommy DeVito look like a capable NFL QB for crying out loud.
Further helping matters is the reality that the Cowboys have embraced the pass far more following their Week 7 bye. The far right column indicates “Dropback rate over expected”; head coach Mike McCarthy has fired up three of his four most pass-heavy game plans of the season over the past month of action.
Throwing the ball at the league’s 12th-highest rate (54.9%) inside the 10-yard line further helps matters.
To summarize:
- Dak has been playing his best football in quite some time
- He’s facing arguably the league’s single-worst pass defense that also plays into his hands schematically
- Dallas has been willing to throw the ball more than ever in recent weeks
I don’t like the +220 odds on this prop — I love them.
Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet Anytime TD (+135, DraftKings)
From Dwain McFarland’s ever-excellent Week 12 Utilization Report:
“Charbonnet took over the two-minute offense and long-down-distance work over the last four games, and now Kenneth Walker is set to miss time due to an oblique injury.
In Week 11, the Round 2 NFL draft pick played 85% of snaps and bogarted 71% of the rushing attempts.
In total, Charbonnet registered 21 opportunities between 15 attempts and six targets. Given that the Seahawks have already shown us they trust Charbonnet on passing downs, an every-down role is very much possible.”
The matchup obviously isn’t ideal, but these are tough odds to scoff at ahead of a likely 20-plus touch workload against a defense that hasn’t exactly shut down every RB they’ve faced off against this year: The likes of Kyren Willams (100 total yards, 2 TD), Joe Mixon (110 yards, 1 TD), Rachaad White (58 yards, 1 TD), Kareem Hunt (71 yards, 1 TD) all had quite a bit of success on their way to finding the end zone against Fred Warner and company this season.
Nobody has more carries inside the five-yard line than Kenneth Walker (oblique, expected to be out) this season with 13: I like the chances of the rookie backup snapping what is currently the league’s longest scoreless drought at 72 touches. THE MAN IS DUE.
