The AFC's Final Seed Is Up For Grabs
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues, we break down the best bets for the Sunday slate, where the sharps are leaning, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
HOLY GUACAMOLE! Talking heads expected the thrill of some early postseason suspense, but that DEN/CIN clash soared above and beyond. C’mon, that type of high drama’s precisely what the NFL is all about—I still have chills.
With the entire fate of the AFC dangling on a razor’s edge, we get treated to an instant classic between the Bengals and the Broncos. No way the city of Cincinnati got to sleep last night.
The stage was set. Remember, Denver wins and gets in. Lose? Not only do the Broncos need to beat the Chiefs in Week 18, but the Bengals, Colts, and Dolphins all receive life-saving CPR to fight another day. The stakes couldn’t be higher …
This epic clash started out like two veteran heavyweight title contenders, establishing a feel for their opponent without risking the first mistake. In fact, through the first half of a 7-3 slop fest with a measly 262 combined yards gained, bored bettors on X everywhere started poking this one with a stick.
That’s why they play four quarters, people. Apparently someone spent halftime handing out Michael’s Special Stuff from Space Jam because second-half action went Looney Tunes. Bo Nix put the league on notice in this one. The rookie QB made some marquee throws in the biggest spots down the stretch, combining with Joe Burrow for an incredible 418 passing yards plus five scores.
And then, the head-scratching started. And not just from the quant-driven analytic bots, either. Tied at 17 on first down with 99 seconds to go from Denver’s six-yard line, Bengals’ RB Chase Brown breaks free from a scrum to bounce it outside. On his way to slide at the one, presumably on coach’s order to milk the clock for a late FG, Brown badly hurts his ankle. As if that’s not bad enough, with just eight seconds run off the clock, Zac Taylor calls a QB sneak for Joe Burrow, who scores. Of course, he does.
Good thing Lou Anarumo trusted the NFL’s worst defense. Cincy steps onto the field and subsequently gets torched on a beautiful seven-play, 70-yard TD drive, capped off by a miraculous Marvin Mims catch over two DBs. The Bengals deserved to lose by all intents and purposes at this point. Luckily for them, Sean Payton left his courage with the wizard, deciding to kick the extra point rather than win it with a two-point conversion.
The Bengals get the ball in OT and drive up into the red zone only to miss a 33-yard FG. Yet to the delight of everyone else rooting for chaos like me, Cool Joe B slung his way back into the end-zone for Tee Higgins’ third TD. The rest is history.
So it’s still anyone’s guess how the AFC’s final seed will shake out. Miami and Indianapolis, who are both missing their respective starting QBs (!), get their holiday wish of just one more chance at a miracle run. Had I told you in August that Snoop Huntley and Joe Flacco would make for appointment viewing during New Year’s week, would you have believed me? What a world.
Think you know how the AFC will play out? Find the best odds and bet on it below.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange: Uncle Sam Wants You!
- Look Into My Crystal Ball: Wanna Be Like Mike
- Sharp Hunter: Back Bryce Young
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🤝 When they score, you score. Anytime TD bets for Week 17.
🤑 The top plays for today’s NFL DFS slate. All in on this offense?
🤮 Keep an eye on the injury report … this is getting gross.
5️⃣ The top five props of Week 17 … and Underdog Pick’ems, too.
🤭 Psst … one more reminder—Guillotine Leagues are live for the playoffs.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Uncle Sam Wants You!
THE BET: Sam Darnold Over 257.5 Passing Yards
Get your errands and kiddie parties out of the way early for the must-see game of the weekend. Then carve out a nice piece of real estate on the couch and get ready to start your playoff engines. Hollywood couldn’t have drawn up a better ending to this NFC North division—three different teams with at least 11 wins duking it out head-to-head for the last two weekends of the regular season.
Unlike their counterparts, the Lions control their own destiny—a win Monday night on the road in San Fran and it’s off to the dance. Remember, Minnesota plays before we’ll know that result, so it’s all hands on deck. The Vikings can still snatch the conference’s top seed and that all-important bye week with victories over Green Bay and Detroit. If the Packers win today, they’ll host the Bears in Week 18 with a chance to leapfrog Minnesota for the fifth seed. How can you not love this stuff as a football fan?
Sam Darnold has had his rightful critics over these past six years, after failing to fulfill the prophecy of a third-overall pick. However, between the fantastic season he’s having along with fellow discarded top-pick Baker Mayfield, perhaps organizations will reconsider the production arc of young QBs. Anyway, that’s another story for a different day, but the fact remains Darnold’s doing his thing.
I’ve been especially encouraged by the chains coming off the offense. We know MIN wants to sling it with Kevin O’Connell controlling the headset and that’s really manifested in the Vikes’ elevated pass rate as confidence grows within the system (image below).
The stats don’t lie—since MIN’s Week 7 bye it’s hard to argue against Darnold as a top-5 QB …
- 2,665 Passing Yards: 3rd
- 21 TD: 4th
- +0.29 EPA/Attempt: 5th
- 106.3 Passer Rating: 3rd
- 8.2 Yards Per Attempt: 5th
- 48.8% Throws To Sticks: 3rd
- 38 +20-Yard Completions: T-2nd
- 6.5% TD:Att Ratio: 4th
Green Bay’s defense commands some respect after 2024's first shutout, but let’s be honest. Scheming for Spencer Rattler and Dante Pettis is a far cry from Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. GB has experienced ups and downs like everyone else—seven quarterbacks eclipsed today’s mark so far this year.
Also, the Packers’ injury report definitely deserves attention. Once again they’ll be missing multiple starters in the secondary along with star LB Quay Walker, their best interior defender and team leader in tackles and splash plays.
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Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Wanna Be Like Mike
THE BET: Mike Evans O80.5 Receiving Yards
Welcome to Narrative Street, where there’s no fancy analysis or thorough arguments. We’re all familiar with the situation. Future Hall of Famer Mike Evans started his career with a record 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons and now stands just 182 shy of an extension. While I’m generally not too interested in incentive-based wagers, the exterior factors are all in place to seal the deal for me.
For starters, Tampa’s out of time, backs pressed firmly against the wall. Lose and go home. Play with their food again like in Dallas and go home. It’s no retreat and no surrender for the Bucs. Expect TB to come out firing in an attempt to regain the postseason trajectory after four straight post-bye wins.
Tampa’s battery of Mayfield to Evans ranks among the best remaining in the game and the matchup couldn’t be better. The only thing keeping the Panthers secondary from being talked about as a weekly target? Game scripts. Carolina is second worst on the season in both EPA/dropback (-0.16) and opposer passer rating (102.2).
What happens when CAR keeps it within a claw’s distance? You get a (8-118-1) blowup game like the one Evans posted in Week 13. With multiple starting defensive backs on the shelf for the Panthers, Evans should have a clear runway to take a huge chunk out of the 182 at the end of the rainbow.
Who cares about milestones? How about the guy throwing the ball?
MORE NFL BEST BETS FOR WEEK 17
I hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life Newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
Sharp Hunter: A Two-Bag Score On The Panthers
Week 17 features a pair of games that, for fantasy football and DFS purposes, will determine many league and contest winners on Sunday.
The obvious game is in the dome in Minnesota where the Vikings host the Packers.
The other one is in Tampa where the Bucs host the Panthers in a game they have to have to keep their playoff hopes alive in the NFC.
Our sharps at Sharp Hunter are focused on that one. The Bucs are 8-point home favorites in a game with a 48-point total.
We’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score on the Panthers plus the points at Sharp Hunter. Games are rated between One (💰) and Three (💰💰💰) Bags when it comes to the confidence of our sharps, so a Two-Bag Score (💰💰) shows some strong confidence from our sharps.
I get the confidence of the sharps here.
We know the Bucs will be able to put up points. The Panthers' defense is 31st DVOA and will not have CB Jaycee Horn here. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Bucky Irving … all in good spots.
BUT …
Okay, so Tampa has a solid run defense—they're ranked #9 DVOA. But at #25 against the pass, you can throw the ball on them.
Since he’s come back in the lineup, Bryce Young has been a different quarterback for Carolina. Young graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top QB for his play in the Week 16 win over the Cardinals.
Carolina placed RB Chuba Hubbard on IR Saturday, leaving Mike Boone and Raheem Blackshear as the running backs. I think it’s fair to expect the Carolina offense to throw it more than usual with no Hubbard AND facing talented Tampa run defense. That approach should help them on Sunday.
The Panthers have been a covering machine, going 6-1 ATS since November 1.
These two teams played back in Week 13 and Carolina could have won that game in overtime, if not for a Hubbard fumble.
I like backing divisional underdogs late in the season. And the public LOVES betting teams that have to win—I think that’s inflating this line.
Maybe that’s one of the reasons the sharps at Sharp Hunter are backing Carolina +8.
I’ll be with them on Sunday playing the road ‘dog Panthers getting over a TD.
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